Whether Obama's reelection is considered a slam-dunk, an uncertain proposition, or an impossibility depends entirely on the data you consider a credible indicator these days.

If you ask some on the right (as well as more than a few depressed Democrats), Obama is toast. The data to support their case...

Since the entry of Texas Gov. Rick Perry into the Republican presidential field, there has been a great deal of airtime and ink dedicated to commenting on his viability in both the primary election and the general. When it comes to the primary, recent surveys have...

Despite the long stretch of time between today and the New Hampshire GOP presidential primary, there's an understandable appetite for data about the race as it stands today. Polls today may not be great predictors of the final ballot, but they can give insight into who has (and who lacks)...

Most major polls over the last few months have painted a picture of an American voting public that is predominantly conservative. Before we dig into the polls that have come out recently, let's look at historical data to get some context for what one might expect the ideological makeup of...

If there is only one person in the world for whom the oil spill disaster in the Gulf is a blessing in disguise, that man is Charlie Crist.

From photos of the Governor surveying the spill to soundbites of him demanding full compensation for Florida's spill related damages, Crist's handling...

This post is part of the "Modern Male Brains & the Young, Powerful Women Who Love Them" series compiled by Dr. Louann Brizendine, neuroscientist and author of the recent book, The Male Brain. The series explores how the next generation of women relates to love while balancing complex,...

Last week, I had the opportunity to attend the annual conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. The conference featured presentations from private sector, government, and academic researchers about their methods and findings, in addition to the release of reports by two AAPOR task forces - one on...

Some of the items I was most interested in learning about at AAPOR this year were the findings of the task force on cell phone survey research. Given my particular interest in understanding young voters, I am particularly concerned about the lack of coverage among that group with landline-only research....

One of the things I loved most about the AAPOR conference was the opportunity to learn from pollsters of different disciplines. The lessons one organization learns about how to reach a unique population are often useful to researchers of all varieties. In this case, Pew presented its findings about how...

While AAPOR's panels are predominantly comprised of academics and professional non-partisan researchers, it was nice to run into a handful of political pollsters who had presentations as well. Chris Wilson and Bryon Allen from Wilson Research Strategies dug into the ANES data to answer a basic question: what matters more,...

On the second day of the AAPOR Conference in Chicago, I had a chance to catch up with Jennifer Agiesta of the Washington Post who chaired a panel session on candidate preferences and election outcomes. The panel featured presentations on a number of topics that impact how public opinion measures...

If you think pollsters in the US have it rough - difficulty getting folks to agree to participate, difficulty finding good samples given the rise of cell phone only households, etc. - try conducting public opinion research in Afghanistan. Over the last few years, ABC News has worked with research...

Over a year has passed since Rick Santelli's famed CNBC rant made waves in political circles, and the "Tea Party" movement still remains a vibrant and very controversial force in American politics.

Yet despite exhaustive discussion and coverage of the movement, there is still little consensus on what makes...

The team of writers behind "The Daily Show" released a book in 2004 by Jon Stewart entitled America: A Citizen's Guide to Democracy Inaction. On page 112 (for those of you following along at home), Stewart and company lampoon the traditional roles found in an American campaign. The pollster is...

Last November, young voters cast their ballots for Barack Obama over John McCain by a 2 to 1 margin and broke heavily for the Democratic Party, leading many strategists and pollsters (myself included) to believe that long-term damage had been done to the GOP's standing with a new generation of...

Picture the scene: a fairly popular President, having amassed a significant amount of political capital, decides its time to cash in and spend some on a tough reform effort for a failing, inadequate system. Many Americans agree that the status quo isn't acceptable long-term but hesitate to sign on to...

During these August weeks when Washington has all but shut down, I thought this would be a good opportunity to do a brief run-down of polls in my beloved home state of Florida. (I was born and raised in Orlando and keep a close eye on how things are evolving...

In Jon Stewart's 2004 satirical textbook on government and politics, America: A Citizen's Guide to Democracy Inaction, the chapter on elections features an illustration of a graveyard of political parties, complete with an archway sign reading "abandon political viability all ye who enter here." There, next to the Whig and...

Yesterday's departure of Sen. Arlen Specter from the Republican Party re-opened the debate over the ideological direction of the Republican Party. Did the GOP move away from Specter, or was it Specter that left the GOP? Where do the American people fall?

My focus on this site over the last...

Last week, I took a look at two issues where young voters tend to diverge with older voters. Traditional Republican messaging about the gay marriage and the perils of big government is quite different from the ways young voters tend to look at the issues and if the Republican Party...