The Top Ten List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Let's forget about the spin on all sides and not use any adjectives to modify the following 10 Facts that should not be in dispute:

1. Hillary Clinton won by 10%, 220,000 votes, despite after most of the polls in the last several weeks on RealClearPolitics, including its RCP all-poll average, showed her ahead by single digits and dropping. The exit polls showed her winning by +5. (It's easy to forget that she won if you listen to the Obama spinners last night and today. Believe it or not, Pennsylvania's Rep. Murphy, a freshman congressman who supported Barack Obama, actually said last night on Larry King that Senator Obama did so well in losing to Senator Clinton yesterday that he has a "wind at his back." I am not kidding.

2. Senator Obama tried hard to win the state, campaigned intensely throughout the state for most of the last six weeks -- and was trying to win, not just lose a narrow margin.

3. He spent $11 million on media -- about three times more than Senator Clinton.

4. Most of his ads were personal negative attack ads against Senator Clinton, meaning attacks on her character and integrity.

5. There were no personal attack ads run by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania.

6. Barack Obama hasn't won a single major industrial state that historically constitute the key "battleground" states for both parties, i.e., the states in the last three or four presidential elections have switched back and forth between the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.

7. The reason that he lost can be found in the demographic data: He lost -- and Senator Clinton won -- by substantial margins blue collar and middle class white voters earning under $50,000 a year, senior citizens, rural voters, Hispanic voters, and women voters -- all core constituencies in the Democratic base that must be won if a Democrat is to win the White House. For example, yesterday in Pennsylvania she won Roman Catholics by 32 percent (66034), union households by 18 percent (59-41), and those most concerned about the economy by 16 points (58-42). Only 60 percent of Democratic Catholic voters said they would vote for Mr. Obama in a general election.

8. Barack Obama has lost these same demographic groups in Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, California and New Jersey and other major states that Senator Clinton won. There is a factual pattern of his weakness among these demographic groups in virtually every primary state that cannot be disputed.

9. Barack Obama is currently in a dead heat with John McCain, according to a recent respected poll, in Massachusetts (actually, the results were McCain 46% and Clinton 44%), while Senator Clinton leads in Massachusetts by 15%. The last time a Democrat did not win Massachusetts by a substantial margin was 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. Even in the historic landslide election of Richard Nixon in 1972, when he won 49 states, only Massachusetts supported Senator McGovern. Senator Obama currently runs considerably behind Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio, while Senator Clinton is ahead in both of those key battleground states.

10. Current polls show Senator Clinton runs ahead of John McCain nationally or dead even -- and Senator Obama runs only dead even. For example, in the most recent USA Today national general election poll, Senator Clinton leads Senator McCain by +6; Senator Obama leads by less than the margin of error, +2.

Those are the facts. To all Super Delegates: you decide who is riskier as a general election candidate. The candidate whose negatives, driven by the right-wing hate machine in the 1990s in particular, are all out there and already taken into account. Or a candidate who is still virtually unknown to most of the electorate, with Republicans clearly looking forward to filling in the blanks with the facts about his record of which many general election voters still are not aware.

Comments

[nazcalito]

Lanny Davis oddly resembles the "jackdavis" bot in his thinking, except he doesn't call us all idiots. This article is being linked as a "humorous" post on other sites.

[isla989]

please, please, please - just give it up Hillary - Obama has won 30 states to your 15 - he has the votes - as far as this ridiculous assertion that democrats who vote in closed primaries are going to split their vote for the other parties candidate, it is absurd - most people who voted for Hillary WILL cast their votes for whoever the Dems candidate is, give it a rest - for an insightful take on this idiotic list, follow the link.
http://www.slate.com/id/2189812/

[DRPike]

Thanks, good piece. Let's hope he's right about Hillary putting the party first soon.

[OxyCon]

C'mon, Obama is the candidate of Hope!
He "hopes" no one notices when he quotes anti-white lines from movies while speaking to mostly black audiences.
He "hopes" no one notices when he uses gangsta rap gestures which reference misogynistic lyrics.
He "hopes" no one notices that he is completely comfortable hanging out with America hating bigots.
He "hopes" no one notices that his political career shows very little accomplishments that he can call his own.
He "hopes" that he can continue to run a gutter/negative attack campaign against Hillary and no one will notice.
Audacity, baby!

[ChimesOfFreedom]

Wow, do you any actual examples of that, or did you just pull it all out of Mark Penn's derriere?

[OxyCon]

Obama's Stump Lines Echo Malcolm X - Politics on The Huffington PostJan 28, 2008 ... Obama's Stump Lines Echo Malcolm X - The Huffington Post.
www.huffingtonpost.com/_83560.html - 43k -

"They're trying to bamboozle you," Obama said for the first time Wednesday in Sumter, S.C., to a predominantly African American crowd while refuting e-mails falsely identifying him as a Muslim. "Don't let people turn you around because they're just making stuff up. That's what they do. They try to bamboozle you, hoodwink you."

The Swamp: Obama's Jay-Z shout outBarack Obama's visual reference to rap star and pop icon Jay-Z's hit from a few years back, "Dirt Off Your Shoulder?" That's never stopped us before. ...
weblogs.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/obamas_jayz_moment.html -

Jay-Z "Dirt off your shoulder lyrics:

If you feelin like a pimp (racial slur), go and brush your shoulders off
Ladies is pimps too, go and brush your shoulders off
(racial slurs) is crazy baby, don't forget that boy told you
Get, that, dirt off your shoulder

[OxyCon]

Obama Campaign Attacks Hillary's Character -- Blasts Her As "Untrustworthy"
By Greg Sargent - March 21, 2008, 10:20AM

"We believe that this is a really important issue as super-delegates decide who will be electable in the fall," Plouffe said. "The American people are not going to elect someone who isn't seen as honest and trustworthy."
----------------------------

Obama's pastor and spiritual advisor who married him and baptized his children said the following:
"God damn America".
"The US of KKK A".
"Garlic nosed Italians"
"Greedy white people".

Google it.

[OxyCon]

Do you need more examples, ChimesOfFreedom?

[starfishNCoffee]

From the tone of your comments I suppose you "hope" that no one notices that your a complete bigot.

[KISSman]

This is so over-the-top rediculous... did you get this from Colbert or O'Reilly?

[JoeCHI]

Bravo, Lanny!

[hwebb54]

Thank god for Lanny Davis. The MSM is to enamored with Obama to see how weak he really is. Why does no one see this?

[DRPike]

Because it simply isn't true. When everyone disagrees it's time to re-consider your position.

Obama has ALREADY won the Democratic primary
Obama is imminently electable
Obama can and will beat McCain

O8ama

[Tranquility]

One can not be entirely sure the Republican nominee will be McCain. How can we know for sure that if they feel they have a shot to win there won't be another player? Dems need to have someone who can beat any Republican. Hillary's got it going on.

[DRPike]

What are you smoking? McCain IS the republican nominee.

Now if the Democrats would only get strategically as smart as the Republicans and end this pointless internal battle and begin the GE we could get focussed on what matters.

[Anie]

Lanny
Just a heads up that your article needs a correction.

Re:

" 9. Barack Obama is currently in a dead heat with John McCain, according to a recent respected poll, in Massachusetts (actually, the results were McCain 46% and Clinton 44%), while Senator Clinton leads in Massachusetts by 15%."

That should be

"...(actually, the results were McCain 46% and Obama 44%)..."

[sjl106]

Lanny you also forgot to show MO where obama won in the primary, and is claiming as a winning strategy in the General, McCain whoops obama by double digits and Hillary wins according to SUSA. Obama is also claiming CO, he won't win here since Rev. Wright I know several one-time obama supporter who caucused for him who will never vote for him in the General and the hispanics (everyone I have ever talked to) will never vote for obama (and they did not caucus in anytype of mentionable numbers).

[ChimesOfFreedom]

In the only polling done in Missouri this month, McCain leads Obama by 8 points, with 8 percent undecided, while McCain and Hillary are in a statistical dead heat. Get your facts straight. Missouri is far from a lost cause for Obama.

In the only polling done in Colorado this month, McCain beats Hillary by 14, while Obama leads McCain by 3. Who were you saying has a better shot at taking Colorado?

"It's not what you don't know that'll hurt you, it's what you know for certain that just ain't so."

[TuffPosh]

Oddly enough, Davis forgot to mention that, while all three top contenders are bad on the issue, Obama is extraordinarily weak when it comes to immigration matters. Not only does he want to give driver's licenses to illegal aliens, but he marched in support of illegal activity at an event organized by people linked to the Mexican government:

http://nomoreblather.com/barack-obama-and-the-immigration-marches

McCain and Clinton won't bring that up, and no group is probably going to run TV ads about it. But, if I ever get the chance to publicly quiz him about that march he's not going to look very good at all those who see the resulting Youtube video. Maybe if I can make him look really bad it might even get linked by Drudge.

[DRPike]

"Maybe if I can make him look really bad it might even get linked by Drudge"

Every true Democrats dream. Perhaps you pressed the wrong link?

[TuffPosh]

I'm registered as an independent, and even if I were an R or D I would put country well before party. Let me suggest that others do the same. And, if I ever get to ask McCain about his own questionable link to a former cabinet-level official with the Mexican government I don't think he's going to end up looking too good either:

http://lonewacko.com/blog/archives/007421.html

[drae]

When are Obamas's supporters going to realize that they were very well played by Rove et all. Promote and protect Obama in the press (up to three weeks ago), diss and insult Clinton at every opportunity, divide and conquer. Perfect. Play each side, yes.
Obama can not win the GE. I'm sorry, I wish it weren't so as we are headed there, but if he is having these difficulties with this demographic now, how do you expect him to pull over repubs and independants? Let's not forget, for the most part we agree on policy if not candidate. We are your family. If you lose, say 25% of us, split the indies(at best), and pull very few repubs....that is a no win. If you want to call us "stupid, uneducated, raciest, old and bitter" well, we are still closer to your point of view than the other parties. Who do you think the repubs are???
Last, stop insulting us. Even the press is getting really offensive with it. Obama split the educated vote by what 3 or 4. that's not a mandate.

[OldladyUSA]

Thanks for the heads up - ummm, If we loose you, where will you be? with McCain? Then I guess if your logic is true - we will be together again. Ain't life wonderful....

I am Hillary Clinton's age, 2 months older. I have seen her type for 35-40 years. I voted for Perott to keep from voting from "used-car sales man" Bill Clinton.

Make NO MISTAKE - Karl is getting a lot of credit, and if anyone is following his tactics IT IS the Clinton Campaign, including Lanny Davis with this babble list. He believes you believe it....

I am voting for Obama with my eyes very wide open. And, by the way - did you get that I'm her "best" demo??

Good luck with your vote.

[Kreskytim]

Hey OldladyUSA
"I have seen her type for 35-40 years" Her type? Generalize much?

[kgb999]

He doesn't need a mandate. He already has one: it's called the democratic platform. He simply needs more delegates than Clinton, and he's getting them. As you mentioned, the difference is not policy - it's candidate. Which is exactly why when the GE comes, the majority of Clinton supporters will support Obama - because he carries the platform.

A mandate is what you get from the nation after Obama wins the general election in a landslide.

[April]

Ummm.....

You forget how easy it will be to beat McCain. Even with half of the primary voters registered as democrat.

Instead of attacking Obama constantly, why not say something positive about Hillary on the issues.

You know how great it has been for her to pretend like she is ahead and create a civil war in the democratic party.

Your spin is ridiculous.

[hwebb54]

Easy to beat McCain??? Wow....you are going to regret saying that if Obama is the nominee. McCain will compete with him. The McCain brand is strong. I'm a strong Democrat and I get mad when the DNC attacks him about his age. Think of what Republicans are going to think about the attacks on their nominee.

[DRPike]

Their nominee cant even keep his enemies straight. He's w with better pronunciation. McCain only stands a chance if the Democrats tear themselves apart.

[awb]

and the BEST UNDISPUTED reason for Obama to be President?

8 years of not having to listen to or look at
The FALSELY PIOUS Lanny Davis
The STRETCH the TRUTH Terry McAuliffe
and allow Pres William Jefferson Clinton a chance to regain some of the respect he has lost the last 15 months

This country needs to "move on" - despite the strangle hold the Clinton's and their cronies feel they have on the Democratic party -- people can think for themselves without them telling us what to think --

[lafrance]

agreed. He is an annoying little priss, isn't he.
But, then, Hillary has practically become a republican as well.
Good riddance to all the Clintonistas.

[grendl]

You need only list two reasons shes more electable.

1) She's white.

2.)He's black.

Everything else you say is useless spin.

[DRPike]

Climb back in your hole, the world is rolling over you.

[Brainster]

Lanny, you blew a stat there. Walter Mondale is the last Democrat to lose Massachusetts, in 1984.

[MzTexas]

What spin? I don't support either of the Democratic candidates and will vote for one ONLY in protest against John McCain, who I REALLY don't support. What Mr. Davis is saying is true . . . you guys need to realize that Mr. Obama is NOT the second coming and that he is flawed . . . .you want him to win? You'd better hope he works on those flaws. Hillary is flawed and all of her warts are known and visible. The demographics are against an Obama presidency . . . you Obama supporters better work on the demos or get used to saying President McCain and waiting for the bombs to drop.

BTW, Obama lost last night and he has failed to win ONE single Blue State that is necessary for him to be a viable candidate in the General Election. Why is that? Why can he only win the Democratic contests in red states which he will not carry come November?

Be thinking about it . . . if he's going to be the nominee, you'd better assure all of us moderates and independents that he's worthy of our vote.

[OldladyUSA]

Obama is not a God, he is not perfect and no one says he is. Neither was Edwards, Paul, or even Perott.

what is true is he is NOT a Clintonista. That term by the way should be looked up. Hillary Clinton is known, true. But if you ever believe that all the warts are visible, you are taking the first step down a VERY dark path.

Lanny has no double done good in the past, but what ever those efforts, they are not good enough to get the American Public to believe the pander babble he presents here.

As to your vote, you need to follow your own truth. I promise, I believe mine should go to Obama after studying all the candidates, including Nader - and I am MORE than willing to take that chance.

Good luck to you.

[DRPike]

The only people I have seen suggesting Obama is perfect are HRC supporters setting up that straw man to have something to knock down.

Your are right, everyone has flaws and HRC's are more well known. That is why ALL republicans hate her enough to get out and vote for a guy they don't like and half of the Democrats dislike and distrust her. At least with Obama we have a chance at general likability after full vetting.

The Blue-State canard is EXACTLY why he is more electable. ANY democrat will take those states and Obama is winning over more independents and republicans. Have you heard any expert coin the phrase "Clinton Republicans?" LMAO!

I don't have to assure you of anything, it should not be me you form your opinion of obama based on but rather Obama himself. It is you who needs to "be thinking about it": because Obama has already won.

I hope you find peace in your decision, I have.

[JohnFromCensornati]

I wanna be on top
Forever on the up
And damn the competition
I never play it fair
I never turn a hair
Just like the politicians
I wrap my conscience up
I wanna win that cup
And get the money, baby
Back in the dressing room
The other side is weeping
And we're winning
Winning ugly