The Top Ten List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain

Let's forget about the spin on all sides and not use any adjectives to modify the following 10 Facts that should not be in dispute:

1. Hillary Clinton won by 10%, 220,000 votes, despite after most of the polls in the last several weeks on RealClearPolitics, including its RCP all-poll average, showed her ahead by single digits and dropping. The exit polls showed her winning by +5. (It's easy to forget that she won if you listen to the Obama spinners last night and today. Believe it or not, Pennsylvania's Rep. Murphy, a freshman congressman who supported Barack Obama, actually said last night on Larry King that Senator Obama did so well in losing to Senator Clinton yesterday that he has a "wind at his back." I am not kidding.

2. Senator Obama tried hard to win the state, campaigned intensely throughout the state for most of the last six weeks -- and was trying to win, not just lose a narrow margin.

3. He spent $11 million on media -- about three times more than Senator Clinton.

4. Most of his ads were personal negative attack ads against Senator Clinton, meaning attacks on her character and integrity.

5. There were no personal attack ads run by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania.

6. Barack Obama hasn't won a single major industrial state that historically constitute the key "battleground" states for both parties, i.e., the states in the last three or four presidential elections have switched back and forth between the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates.

7. The reason that he lost can be found in the demographic data: He lost -- and Senator Clinton won -- by substantial margins blue collar and middle class white voters earning under $50,000 a year, senior citizens, rural voters, Hispanic voters, and women voters -- all core constituencies in the Democratic base that must be won if a Democrat is to win the White House. For example, yesterday in Pennsylvania she won Roman Catholics by 32 percent (66034), union households by 18 percent (59-41), and those most concerned about the economy by 16 points (58-42). Only 60 percent of Democratic Catholic voters said they would vote for Mr. Obama in a general election.

8. Barack Obama has lost these same demographic groups in Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, California and New Jersey and other major states that Senator Clinton won. There is a factual pattern of his weakness among these demographic groups in virtually every primary state that cannot be disputed.

9. Barack Obama is currently in a dead heat with John McCain, according to a recent respected poll, in Massachusetts (actually, the results were McCain 46% and Clinton 44%), while Senator Clinton leads in Massachusetts by 15%. The last time a Democrat did not win Massachusetts by a substantial margin was 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated Jimmy Carter. Even in the historic landslide election of Richard Nixon in 1972, when he won 49 states, only Massachusetts supported Senator McGovern. Senator Obama currently runs considerably behind Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio, while Senator Clinton is ahead in both of those key battleground states.

10. Current polls show Senator Clinton runs ahead of John McCain nationally or dead even -- and Senator Obama runs only dead even. For example, in the most recent USA Today national general election poll, Senator Clinton leads Senator McCain by +6; Senator Obama leads by less than the margin of error, +2.

Those are the facts. To all Super Delegates: you decide who is riskier as a general election candidate. The candidate whose negatives, driven by the right-wing hate machine in the 1990s in particular, are all out there and already taken into account. Or a candidate who is still virtually unknown to most of the electorate, with Republicans clearly looking forward to filling in the blanks with the facts about his record of which many general election voters still are not aware.

Comments

[hopeless277]

Wow. You conviced me! I'm voting for Obama. Stick it, Hillary.

[eridees]

Lanny, what on earth are you going to do when Obama wins the nomination?

[chasgoose]

He will be vindicated in November when McCain wipes the floor with Obama and we are subjected to another 4 years (at least) of Bush Jr.

The joke is going to be on the Democrats if Obama gets the nomination. Except it has a really depressing punchline.

[WhatWouldJesusBomb]

Joke's already on the Democrats for believing Bill and Hill's shtick.

[leahlex]

Oh yes Lanny you are so right and those of us women in Tennessee are solidly behind hillary. I believe she will go all the way and will do all i can to help her get there. I heard that congressman say to you last night the wind is at his back. No way buddy no way. I did hear and read some disturbing news that Recreate 68 plans to start riots at the Denver convention. Thats if Obama doesn't get the nod. I say go right ahead and Bush's home land security will make them wish that they did not do it. It will be bloody. I believe she will take it all the way home Go Hillary!

[JohnFromCensornati]

Are you the head cheerleader at your high school?

[atomicprince]

so lanny what should we do? YOur whinning is understood but tell me the solution.

[drae]

You know, now there is the real problem. So much unpleasantness abounds. I have seen just awful things written here, everywhere, from both sides. What is saddest of all is we were all, at one time on the same side.
Everything Lanny says is true and they are the kindest of the reasons. I am a liberal dem, or I thought I was until recently. I believe in my soul that this new politics of hope IS achievble, but you cannot shove it down people's throats. You can not belittle the demographic. A college degree is not a true measure of intelligence; age brings with it wisdom and experience; blue collar workers are the backbone of this nation, and more importantly to this discussion, the democratic party. They are the base. They are not stupid, or short-sighted, but they are realistic. Hillary works because she is a fighter; she takes endless amounts of abuse and smiles; and she really has dreams too.
The solution is Clinton/ Obama. Let her brawl her way in, and pave the way for his eight when he is experieced and in the public eye for enough time. But, it wont happen now.

[RickO]

Here's another note to all you Super Delegates:

You wanna see someone become instantly endowed with the greatest general election weakness of all time? Subvert the pledged delegate process and make a backroom deal to give Hillary the nomination (that's if she doesn't actually win if fair and square).

If, having done this, the party itself somehow remains intact, if there are any unbroken windows left in party headquarters buildings, if we are somehow spared the outrage that could lead to violence like we've seen in the past, you are still saddled with an illegitimate candidate who won't stand a chance in hell of beating a the weakest Republican running at the nadir of his party's popularity.

[bmora]

How can 10 undeniable facts support absolutely nothing? Inquiring minds want to know.

[edzeppelin]

"4. Most of his ads were personal negative attack ads against Senator Clinton, meaning attacks on her character and integrity.

5. There were no personal attack ads run by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania."

Dude, I couldn't even finish reading the rest of your bullshit after I read these two "undisputable facts".

And its indisputable, not undisputable you retard.

[jvarga]

Facts without sources = indisputable, that's definitely true.

[methepeople]

i disagree that all the Clinton's negatives are out there. I say again: what has bill been up to for the last seven or eight years? I have a felling it's a little more than has been mentioned...

if electability is the issue, why aren't we openly discussing the 170+ lb. "teddy-bear" in the room?

[Nommo]

Not done: "I don't recall (152 times),Craig Livingstone, Anthony and Hugh Rodman, Stephanopolous/Jones, Ron Burkle, just in case you figured the Republicans were not aware of all that.

[blaqntelligence]

Lanny, Lanny, Lanny.......

[arvo]

Mr. Davis,

Why must you keep up this facade? Sen. Clinton picked up 10 delegates. Hardly a dent. She has run a relentlessly negative campaign against a fellow Democrat. Obama has for the most part stuck to the issues. She won by 9.2 points, when three weeks ago she was up by 20. She made use of street money, Obama did not. She made use of Ed Rendell's political machine... The list goes on and on. Because you say it is so does not make it so.

[gopindrag]

Thanks for all your squinty insights, Karl.