Americans are voting in the 2010 midterm elections. We know the stakes are huge. But before the polls even have closed, Republicans are already rewriting history to suit themselves.
Take yesterday's New York Times. Conservative columnist Ross Douthat exclaimed,"20 years of liberal gains have been erased in 20 months." We will hear more like that tonight. These boasts are not surprising, coming from the Party of No.
But what's also not surprising is what the electorate is doing in this, and in every recent, federal midterm election.
Big drops in voter turnout… swings in political representation… greater activity by minority factions… these are predictable, historic features of midterms. Take turnout. In 2006, 2002 and 1998, it fell 20 percent from the prior presidential election.
Take swings in representation. Yes, the House is up for grabs. But many districts won by Democrats in 2008 were Republican seats for years. These dynamics are predictable, historians and academics say. They have happened for decades.
And yes, political outsiders have an outsized impact in lower turnout races. But are this year's most visible activists, Tea Party conservatives, any more of a majority than Ross Perot's Reform Party supporters were in 1992? No. In fact, they represent about the same slice of voters: 20 percent. See Amy Gardner's valuable, if late, actual study: "Gauging the Scope of the Tea Party Movement in America." Or read At the Tea Party: The Wing Nuts, Whack Jobs and Whitey-Whiteness of the New Republican RIght and Why We Should Take it Seriously, a new collection of essays edited by yours truly, released yesterday and available exclusively through ORbooks.com.
We need to be clear what this election is and is not. It is not a national presidential election. Midterms are scores of local and state contests. These are not nationwide campaigns. The GOP may declare a new political era has arrived. But it hasn't.
A report on an October 2010 poll by the Washington Post, Henry J. Kaiser Foundation and Harvard University said, "Americans continue to see major areas of government spending as essential. Whether it is Medicare, Social Security, national defense, food stamps, education, unemployment benefits or environmental protection, about nine in 10 [voters] call these programs at least somewhat important." Furthermore, it noted that "most Americans who say they want more limited government also call Social Security and Medicare 'very important.' They want Washington to be involved in schools and to help reduce poverty. Nearly half want the government to maintain a role regulating health care."
Most voters are not angry about the size of government. They are disappointed and frustrated government has not done what they hoped for in hard times. Poll after poll finds a solid majority of voters want government to protect them, especially in tough times. Voters support core programs; retirement security, anti-poverty, education, consumer protection, infrastructure, environmental protection and defense. The pundits, usually so obsessed with polls, skipped USA Today/Gallup's October report which found that "the government is the problem mantra draws only about one in five voters." In contrast,"there is a broad consensus that the government ought to build transportation systems, protect consumers from unsafe products, preserve the environment and combat discrimination. Nearly six in 10 say government should make sure all Americans have adequate health care, despite qualms about the health care overhaul President Obama signed this year."
If Democrats lose big, they can blame themselves for compromising too much, not nurturing their base and not selling even those accomplishments they got for the price of all that compromise. But let's remember what a midterm election is and is not. It is not a national referendum. It is not launching a new political era. Voters still want government to be effective. Ironically, just when America needs a more responsive government, it looks like the process will be anything but that.
Bear that in mind as you watch the results. And if you don't trust media that's been binging on a banquet of campaign cash, tune in the alternative: Amy Goodman, Juan Gonzales, Thom Hartmann, Marc Steiner, David Sirota, Gloria Neal and I are teaming up tonight to co-host unique, all-night live coverage on Free Speech TV. Watch DISH Network ch. 9415, DIRECTV ch. 348 or stream. 8 pm–2 am EST. Send us your comments on Facebook or follow on Twitter: #FSTVQ.
Follow Laura Flanders on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Gritlaura
America gave the President a short leash, perhaps way too short of what they would have handed a white President. Fair or not (and I'll argue it wasn't) it IS what it IS. Barack Obama misread American politics and the hearts of Americans everywhere. But most important, he misread independents who wanted effective government, but got feckless royalty.
With Repubs in control of the House, they have sealed Obama's legacy. Sadly. They will bury this nation, if not for control of the White House. The next two years will be among the ugliest in American history. And Americans can blame themselves. Our experiment in democracy produced this. It is our fault.
Link to Amazon Page for Taibbi's book:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0385529953/ossnet-20
Link to my page for ELECTION 2008 (as with all my books, free online as well as at Amazon):
http://www.phibetaiota.net/2008/07/election-2008-lipstick-on-the-pig/
The DNC and President refused to hear the lesson from Scott Brown, and show no signs of getting it yet. The proposals of the Republicans are abjectly stupid on their face unless you are in the top 5%, but the President negotiated with and incorporated some stupid to gain no votes, instead of revealing stupid for what is was. He allowed his stimulus to be ineffective because he diluted the effectiveness by converting stimulus to tax cuts. That gave no help to the unemployed, and the amount was trivial to the employed so it bought him nothing but bigger deficits with less stimulation to fix the Republican problems.
He should read Mr Reich's post for comprehension.