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Lawrence Bender

Lawrence Bender

Posted: April 12, 2010 09:55 AM

Countdown to Zero: Investigating Our Most Urgent Security Threat

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Earlier this week, I was excited to be in Washington, DC with Jeff Skoll, founder of Participant Media and the leaders of Global Zero, to screen our new film, Countdown to Zero, for a high-level DC group. The film is an edge of the seat wake up call about the global nuclear threat. We scheduled the screening for the lead up to President Obama's global nuclear security summit, which is taking place today, convening almost 50 heads of state in Washington. We wanted to ensure that the conversation about the movie helps to create a sense of urgency at the summit. Adding to the momentousness of the past few days, the screening actually ended up taking place on the eve of the historic signing of the new START treaty -- the bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Russia, which, if ratified, will bring about the largest reduction in strategic nuclear arms in a generation.

Because of this fortuitous timing, I found myself on MSNBC's Daily Rundown, CBS News's Washington Unplugged, the BBC World News Tonight, and other shows talking about the film and how it can support the new international momentum toward global zero -- the total elimination of nuclear weapons. It reminded me of my experience several years ago, when I worked with Participant Media to make An Inconvenient Truth, and saw firsthand how a movie can motivate people to take action that leads to real policy change on a major global issue. When AIT came out, we had an administration that was not talking about global warming seriously, to put it mildly; but despite this, the film raised the issue in the public debate and had a major impact on the public's awareness and attitude towards the issue. It made a difference. Now, as we prepare to release Countdown to Zero this summer, we have a president who is serious about reducing and eliminating nuclear weapons. He talked about the issue as far back as the presidential primaries, and last September he presided over a historic meeting of the United Nations Security Council, where the Council unanimously endorsed the goal of a world without nuclear weapons. And at the Nuclear Security Summit today, he is meeting with the leaders of almost 50 other countries to develop a plan of action to secure nuclear materials worldwide to prevent nuclear terrorism. President Obama is demonstrating bold leadership on the most urgent security threat facing the world today. What we need now is major public involvement.

My hope is that Countdown to Zero will not only make people aware of the scope of this threat, but will also help create the political will necessary to ensure that the Senate ratifies the New START treaty without delay or partisan bickering. In the aftermath of the health care debate, the mood in the Senate isn't particularly harmonious, but I hope and expect that this Senate will continue the long-standing tradition of bipartisan support for arms control treaties which so clearly strengthen the security of our country. And with strong Republican leaders like Richard Lugar in the Senate, I think it's possible.

With Participant Media and Global Zero, we are in the process of putting together a coalition of NGOs, religious groups, policy experts and internet gurus to create a massive grassroots movement around Countdown to Zero. After seeing the film and hearing terrifying stories about terrorists trying to acquire nuclear weapons and the all-too-real risk of an accidental nuclear attack -- as well as getting an overview of the key steps governments can take to end the nuclear threat and eliminate all nuclear weapons -- people will be motivated to act. We will be giving them the information and tools they need to take action, first by urging their Senators to ratify the New START treaty and then to take the steps that must follow in order to reach the ultimate goal: a world without nuclear weapons.

To get involved in the growing movement, go to www.takepart.com/zero and sign the declaration.

 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
William50
12:01 AM on 04/13/2010
I do dearly love a good treaty. Watching all those that sign, the high fives and the talking heads saying that the world is safer, which it might be, we just don't really know. However a good treaty is like the gun laws in New York city, strongly worded, heavy consequences and ignored by the criminals.
So........while the big boys talk and move toward the treaty rules and tearing out of deadly weapons, those who did not sign it rouge nations or groups would be looking for weapons they could get.
In the USA the movement of this type of weapon is as safe as we can make anything moving on our highways. Now, Europe could be the same but once into Russia and the lands to the east it gets dangerous. If I have to point this out on how or why you may be brain dead.
So, the threat to use a weapon on an American or European city would be real if.... The real outcome would not be America shaking in the streets it would be total war as seen in WW2 against every group that had threatened the USA and all those who supported them. You may want to think about that because we would not have to use many if any Atomic weapons to destroy everything if we were not worried about civilian targets, there would not be any such targets and the enemy knows that.
10:26 PM on 04/12/2010
Unfortunaly, Zero is probably impractial for our world.

How many nukes do we Need?

India, Pakistan, Israel, non-superpower countries, seem to want about 100 bombs. and missiles to deliver them.

Super powers, Russia and the USA, and China seem to want about 1000 nukes and delivery systems.

Would we feel safe with say, 10 nukes on missiles?

with about 200 countries in the world, half will want nukes? 1000 nukes world wide. A lot better than the 20k we have now.

So each Nuclear secured Sovereign state could kill about 10 million people on a moments notice.

It limits the likely damage, but nearly guarantee we will have a nuclear exchange. States will fail, governments fall, eventual nut jobs will control 10 nukes, and they will use them.

Of course, the present situation is worse. When one of the nuclear club fall to crazies, 100's to 1000's if nukes will be unleashed.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
amleth
big fan of humanity - very often disappointed
12:00 AM on 04/13/2010
Read Jonathan Schell's article, "Reaching Zero." in The Nation, if you haven't already.

He makes some persuasive arguments that the zero goal might be attainable, and certainly that it is desirable.

We need to get these materials off the planet to the extent we possibly can. Weapons grade materials can be transformed to less volatile and dangerous forms.

Schell's "The Fate of the Earth" written in the 80s at the height of Sov-US Nuke threatening madness arguably provided some of the catalyst for the beginning of the effort to wind down (Reagan and Gorbachev) and leading to the current effort.

The man makes good sense then, and now.
12:28 AM on 04/13/2010
This?: http://www.thenation.com/doc/20100419/schell/print

I think 2-10 is more likely, but I am lately more hopeful that fewer states will have ANY nukes bombs, perhaps only a dozen. and 10 nukes each?

Think about having a couple nukes left. I just can't imagine a leader not keeping a couple hidden away, in parts at least. as a last resort.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Middle Blue
What's a micro-bio?
06:25 PM on 04/12/2010
You assume too much -- expecting a country to adhere to what's on a piece of paper is a mistake.

As for the threat, ok, how big, really?

I'll catch your movie, for sure.
05:01 PM on 04/12/2010
I'm looking forward to seeing the film!
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toltec998
Power concedes nothing without a demand
04:03 PM on 04/12/2010
Keep up the great work. We need visionary people that have the ability to see a world withouth nukes. If leaders can't have that expectation, no matter how far off, then it will never happen. Remember, America has been the only nation to use such weapons, lest we forget.
03:38 PM on 04/12/2010
A proliferation of Israeli Art Students copied all dual America's military secrets while Rumsfeld talked knowns and unknowns.
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toltec998
Power concedes nothing without a demand
04:03 PM on 04/12/2010
A very esoteric message.
04:49 PM on 04/12/2010
: )
03:24 PM on 04/12/2010
There is practically no chance of an accidental nuclear war between Russia and the US. Our methods of delivering the nuclear arsenal are well controlled. The ICBMs are targeted to an empty space in the Pacific. True, they can be re-targeted in minutes, but the delay is a safety switch.

Other nations, if a danger are from fanatics who would knowingly launch, not from accidental launches.

Israel, is for Iran, a sideshow and not the main event. For Iran, its their fellow muslims who are the most likely to receive nuclear strikes. Sunni vs. Shia generates more hatred than any perceived hatred for jews.

And, yes, Mohammed did order the slaughter of innocent women and children. I suggest you read history a bit more.
05:24 PM on 04/12/2010
@interventor:

Complete misinformation. The fact remains that Israel is the ONLY nation in West Asia, Middle East and North African regions with a nuclear arsenal -- and one that was acquired illegally, with certainly no IAEA or UN oversight.

The aires of Zionist supremacy - evidenced in scores of literature ranging from the Talmud through documents founding the Israeli state - should be cause for more concern than any poorly cited Islamic "history"...especially with regard to the nuclear armaments issue.

No one abroad buys your brand of psy-op lies.
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wrabbitt
Soylent Green IS People.
02:35 PM on 04/12/2010
Great idea, but, how are you going to stop the religious zealots from declaring that its their calling to destroy everything that isn't in line with their form of reality? A nuclear weapon can be seen as a great power with the ability to steer the infidels toward the faith that the fruitcakes think everyone should be. Like making guns illegal, that makes illegal guns twice as powerful. "gun control isn't about guns its about control" Nuclear weapons can never really be removed from the equation,because some one will always want to control someone else, one nuclear weapon can cause a global war, because if you nuke me I will nuke you, and so on. Mohammed never told anyone to kill innocent women and children but there are those who kill in his name. Guess its been 1 generation too many since the power of nuclear weapons was used "to save lives" ,using it to sacrifice millions of innocent civilians would be a way to insure someones place in history,right up there with Hitler.
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toltec998
Power concedes nothing without a demand
02:45 PM on 04/12/2010
Don't give them reason to destroy everything that isn't in line with their form of reality. Stay out of their reality...to the extent that you can. Let them believe what works for them. Don't create policy that only addresses one thought. It seems pretty simple to me although I recognize the "devil is in the details".
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02:21 PM on 04/12/2010
Oh please! The nations with the lion's share of nuclear weapons still have enough to wipe out most of the countries on the planet and the only country to ever use nuclear weapons is the one making the most noise about how other countries shouldn't be allowed to develop them. So established world powers with huge nuclear stockpiles developed over decades without any interference from other countries, are now sitting with their stockpiles telling developing nations they have no right to develop the same type of technology. Don't get me wrong, I am no proponent of nuclear arms, but the arrogance and hypocrisy of countries that have the bulk of the threat, the bulk of what could easily destroy the world, is very disconcerting. "Exceptionalism" strikes again and then we wonder why we face so much resistance from developing nations.
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04:13 PM on 04/12/2010
"and the only country to ever use nuclear weapons.."

This is a tired argument that serves no ends...

It does not make any point about the present or future. It is akin to Japan, "the only modern nation state where the military ate the livers of the enemy ..."

We can talk about Russia and gulags..
We can talk about China and purges..

History is important things to remember but picking one item out of the past and saying therefore make no sense.
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06:42 PM on 04/12/2010
The United States developed the first atomic bomb -- FACT.
The United States was the first country to use the bomb, twice -- FACT
The United States began what became the nuclear arms race -- FACT

And you think facts make for a tired argument? The discussion is about nuclear weapons, nuclear technology --- who has it, who decides who should have it, and why they should be in a position to make such choices.

“The atomic bomb made the prospect of future war unendurable. It has led us up those last few steps to the mountain pass; and beyond there is a different country.”

- J. Robert Oppenheimer, The Father of the Atomic Bomb
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ndem
02:10 PM on 04/12/2010
Great French documentary called "Dechets: le cauchemar de nucleaire" (Waste the Nuclear Nightmare) by Eric Gueret produced by Bonne Pioche which made March of the Penguins. And this from country which uses a HUGE amount of nuclear energy! Read the book as well.
01:56 PM on 04/12/2010
The nuclear debate is different from other defense debates in that there isn't a multi-billion-dollar-a-year industry associated with the manufacture and use of nuclear weapons. Which means that big-money arms corps like Halliburton don't have a huge vested interest in nukes the same way they do in guns and vehicles, so they're less likely to put as much pressure on their bought-and-paid Congressmen to keep it intact, except maybe as an overall symbol of America's commitment to neverending war.

Hopefully this summit bears fruit more tangible than lip service.
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OneTop
Uh, is that a beer hall?
05:45 PM on 04/12/2010
The real money is in contracting for the black hole, bottomless money pit called "Star Wars Space Shield / Missile Defense" systems. Started out small under Ronnie at a paltry annual budget of $172 million and has done nothing but balloon to $9.4 billion [2009]. The largest single $ program.

Has never been proven to work and probably never will, however, it exists because of the perceived threat of a nuclear missile attack. The sad reality is that more than a few companies have a vested interest in keeping nukes around as it is very good for business.
01:20 PM on 04/12/2010
Nice thought. Why don't you run it by Iran and see what they think?
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toltec998
Power concedes nothing without a demand
02:20 PM on 04/12/2010
Maybe we should run it past our own government first. The main reason other countries feel the need for nuclear arms is to protect themselves from America (and it's ally).
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alex61
02:22 PM on 04/12/2010
Silly. Most nations with nukes are American allies.
03:06 PM on 04/12/2010
Iran wants nukes because the middle eastern nations are tired of Israeli hegemony ,Israelis can unilaterally attack,then go home and dwell under their nuclear umbrella.
05:06 PM on 04/12/2010
@oi8myb8:

Better yet, why not run it by Netanyahu, his Knesset, and the godfather of Israel's not-so-clandestine nuclear arsenal, Shimon Peres, and see what THEY think first?!?
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toltec998
Power concedes nothing without a demand
06:09 PM on 04/12/2010
Nice! Great idea! Any predictions on their response?
12:50 PM on 04/12/2010
Typical blind idealist liberal. Sure it would be great if we were to rid the entire world of nuclear weapons. But that will never happen.

If the US gets rid of our nukes, then we will just be a sitting duck whilst the rest of the world keeps their stockpile, despite promises to do otherwise.

It is very ignorant and naive to belive otherwise.
01:12 PM on 04/12/2010
Typical non-comprehending conservative. Few if any liberals actually believe that a world without nuclear weapons will ever exist. Most liberals acknowledge that there needs to be some nuclear capability to ensure that we do not fall victims to a nuclear attack.

However, the idea of a nuclear free world serves as inspiration. it also serves as a model from which liberals can ask what technologies can help bring about a safer world, closer to the idealized model.

It is the pinnacle of foolishness to classify a belief as ignorant or naive without first actually knowing what that belief actually is.
01:45 PM on 04/12/2010
Ok... now that we know

It's "ignorant or naive"

Rainbows and unicorns to you too.......
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toltec998
Power concedes nothing without a demand
02:24 PM on 04/12/2010
I couldn't disagree with you more. If we are going to lead then let's lead, and today we are leading the world to global anihilation. You may feel safe in your opinion referring to it as ignorant but if we are truly going to survive long term this is necessary. What IS ignorant is for America to feel it can have nuclear arms and expect no one else to possess. What a waste of resources trying to chase our own shadows in parnoia.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
grn1
11:48 AM on 04/12/2010
Great to hear, Lawrence. I was actively involved at the national level in the Nuclear Freeze movement of the 1980's, which is credited by some historians with changing the course of the U.S.- Soviet nuclear arms race. I also helped distribute The Last Epidemic, a film used by thousands during that period to wake up Americans to the nuclear danger. I hope Countdown to Zero generates a similar international movement. We desperately need it.
03:00 PM on 04/12/2010
While you were distributing misguided propaganda some of us were deploying Pershing II's in Western Europe. The Soviets had this incredible knack for knowing when to negotiate and a crippled economy, those warheads and the thought of SDI did the trick. "Some historians" would agree.
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toltec998
Power concedes nothing without a demand
03:05 PM on 04/12/2010
So would you recommend we all get armed to the hilt?
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04:36 PM on 04/12/2010
"which is credited by some historians with changing the course of the U.S.- Soviet nuclear arms race"

Of course the right wants to take credit for pressuring the soviets with Star Wars.

Both arguments are laughable. I applaud all those who participated the protests, even respect the effort.

But there were massive issues going on, like the breakdown of the soviet economy to sustain this type of insane arms race. No one in the Kremlin said, look at those American protesters we should rethink this as look they have really neat signs that make a point I never considered.

how about the pressure of the polish workers resistance /polish pope who created nearby problems for the soviets causing them to Gorby to reassess the structure of the soviets and the rest of world. How about other brave souls in eastern Europe protesting for human rights?

The arms reductions resulted from a change in course of how Russia engaged the world as a consequence of facing up to an unsustainable path on which they were headed.

Arms reductions did not change the soviets.