What Bush and Petraeus Won't Admit

In his testimony before the Congress on September 10 and 11, General Petraeus will make the case that, despite the fact that the Iraqi government is not meeting the benchmarks proposed by the White House a year ago, certain positive developments during the last nine months since the surge began make it clear that the U.S. should continue to maintain some 170,000 troops in Iraq for several more months. His comments will no doubt be echoed by President Bush when he addresses the nation later in the week.

Petraeus and Bush will claim that violence in Baghdad is down, that overall sectarian deaths in Iraq have been reduced, that Iraqi security forces are standing up, and that some Sunni tribes are turning against al-Qaeda. But they will not point out that overall civilian deaths in all of Iraq are increasing; civilian deaths in August were 1809, up by 49 compared to July's 1760 deaths.

Nor will they point out that May was the deadliest month in 2007, with over 1900 civilian deaths. Nor will they note that the Pentagon's estimate of sectarian deaths does not include Shi'a on Shi'a violence, Sunni on Sunni violence, car bombings or people being shot in the head from in front.

Nor will they admit that the drop in violence in Baghdad has more to do with population displacement than the surge. Before the war, Baghdad had a 65 percent Sunni majority. It is now 75 percent Shi'a. More than half of all Baghdad's neighborhoods are now Shi'a dominated as compared to a handful just a year ago.

Nor will Petraeus and Bush tell us that, since the surge began, the number of internally displaced persons in Iraq has doubled to 1.1 million, 200,000 of whom are in Baghdad alone. And that every month in 2007 has seen more American casualties than the same month in 2006. Since the surge began more than 800 American servicemen have died.

Petraeus and Bush will not tell us that the quality of life for ordinary Iraqi's continues to deteriorate. Some 70 percent of Iraqi's lack adequate water supplies, compared to 50 percent before the invasion, nearly 30 percent of Iraqi children are malnourished, and Iraq is meeting only 50 percent of its electrical demand. It is no wonder that 2.4 million people have already left Iraq and are living as refugees throughout the Middle East and that Iraq is second on a the list of the world's most badly failing states.

The General and the President will not let us know that the Iraqi national police are so ineffective that an independent group of military officers said that they should be disbanded, and that the number of Army units capable of operating independently dropped by 40 percent over the past six months.

Finally, they will not point out that in the long run, the current Sunni tribal cooperation with American Forces will intensify sectarian divisions and undermine the Maliki government, the very government which the surge was designed to prop up, as the recent National Intelligence Estimate points out.

It is time to admit that the purpose of the surge, which was supposed to provide space for the Iraqi politicians to undertake political reconciliation, has failed. Let us not use it to provide cover for those who got us into this mess in the first place. Let's begin a phased withdrawal.

Lawrence Korb, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a senior advisor to the Center for Defense Information, handled manpower issues in the Reagan administration.

Comments

[bobh]

Nor did they even mention the cholera epidemic, which now seems to be up to 16,000 victims.

[jpshotwheels]

Is Petreaus another Oliver North, the one that got caught selling arms in the Iran-Contra affair. It was recently reported that one of Petreaus's top guys is being investigated for the 190,000 weapons missing out of Iraq, under Petreaus's watch.

Is he making a fortune too and going along with the Bush Administration for now, and later he will become a commentator for Fox News and his own show called War Stories.

[jbloggz]

So... the troops are being assisted by Sunni leaders in the fight. Interesting as the last time the US went in with a Sunni was with Saddam. Could be they're getting ready to 'arrange' another Sunni coup. Nothing unusual about this. Oh dear having second thoughts about why they wasted Saddam. Soon the figures of US dead will go over 4000 and the general wants to continue into next year with more of the same. Same old long play record just a change of needle.

[splashy]

Actually, the "surge" was about prolonging the occupation so the cons could make more profit. That is the ONLY reason they do anything.

[Dansden]

Alanmartin:

Welcome to the discussion, sir. May I respond to your request....thank you for your candor, a welcome and rare response from Republicans who have supported the invasion of Iraq, who have continued to misrepresent the FACTS about going to war and the FACTS about what this invasion has cost our America...

Alanmartin: one of the first concerns I have is your comment 'little doubt that the President has got us into a jam'....
to refer to nearly 4,000 of our dead sons/daughters/grandchildren/parents killed in this 'President's jam', sir, is a very important reason why so many Americans are angered and enraged at the glib and condescending comments of Republicans like yourself, Alan, who call our dead soldiers- 'a jam'....have you ever had a cousin who died in Iraq considered 'the president's jam' like I have....perhaps your tone would change....



On to your last question: Why do Democrats smear Gen. Petraeus before his report? Knowing that you are likely angered by the MoveOn.org article in The New York Times asking the question- you said to deal with the FACTS- that is exactly what the article related- FACTS that Gen. Petraeus and others have stated that contradict his comments before the Senate and Congressional committees- HENCE, what you called a smear was IN ACTUALITY ONLY A QUESTION THAT MOST AMERICANS SEEM TO BE ASKING- most except Republicans who refer to our dead soldiers as' the president's jam'....the question that irked you was:
General Petraeus or Gen. Betray Us? There was NO CONDEMNATION OF HIM- ONLY FACTS- unlike the Swiftboat Republican articles that was filled with lies, innuendos and hyperbole- ONLY the General's words tend to infer that his most recent statements about Iraq- differing greatly from 5 other official reports on Iraq including the GAO- begs the question: Gen. Petraeus or Gen. Betray Us?

Any other questions, sir Alan....

[Vajara]

The General would make a very good car salesman or a president of a university, or a CEO of most corporations--a slick talking machine. This is what they do for a living. The Ambassador to Iraq is the same- "uh, uh uh, everthing will be better if it does get better."

God, how stupid do they think we are outside the 'beltway.' Buckle up and watch congress go on this ride to nowhere, to more of the same.

I listened to the hearings and if I responded to our students asking such questions with such nonsense, I'm sure they would march out of class and disenroll. As children we called this kind of game of circular thinking, "Ring around the Rosie...and, we all fall down." Or, this is more the ferry tale of 'Humpty Dumpty'(Bush & Petraeus) had a great fall ...and all of the Kings men couldn't put them together again. Big Failure!!! You can't make something Right when it is Wrong, unless you manipulate the truth as these political types are trained to do. I'm not the only one counting the days for change in total direction and I'm certain our troops and their families are doing the same.

Thanks for a great post, Mr. Korb. I have followed your words and observations for years and they are very genuine, sincere, objective and responsible. You are the Best!!!

[CharliePfromHB]

Actually Bush has to reduce troops so we can redeploy them in Iran. Of course, as soon as British withdrew troops, unrest re-emerges. Ho Chi Minh 101.

[CarmanK]

Bush won't admit anything contrary to his "arrogant certitude". Patreaus is a soldier, who unlike the President, takes responsibility for the lives of fighting men and women seriously. It is against every grain in his body to aid the enemy by admitting weakness or defeat. The Congress needs to meet with the General privately.

[FOXYLADY]

VERY INTERESTING BUT NOT SURPRISING AT ALL, WHAT WITH ALL THE BULL SHIT THIS ADMINISTRATION HAS PULLED OR BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF PLANNING AND FOLLOW-UP AND BUSH'S "HAVES AND HAVE MORES" AS HE STATED AT A BUSINESS MENS DINNER AWHILE BACK...HE CALLED THEM HIS "BASE"....DAMN BUSH AND HIS MINIONS

[der Alte]

driving out part of the popn. of Iraq has been carefully planned & my question is how does it differ from ethnic cleansing? or is that o.k. if we do it?

[der Alte]

estimates of the 'displaced" include something like a million & 1/2 Iraquis who have fled to Syria. why can't we at least acknowledge this humanitarian gesture or are theSyrains next on our s**t list for denigration, bombing & trumped up sabre rattling?

[der Alte]

are we still running around claiming the Iraqi govt is dysfunctional & point to the fact the Parliament went home for August? Why wouldn't they? the bldg had no airconditioning----we blew it up.

[Charles TW]

It appears that the only remaining objective for us in Iraq is to find the best exit strategy while saving face, protecting our butts, and taking firm hold of what's left of our balls. Even as pathetic as I find the leadership and people of that part of the world to be, I don't envision them conceding an oil monopoly to the West. We are not going build a democracies in that region until the people decide that they want democracies to be built. And forming a government out of petty sheikdoms is not much different than herding Trent Lott's cats.
At some point it has to occur the West that blowing ill winds into the Middle East can only result in ill tidings.
Just think of what we could have accomplished with steady rays of diplomatic sunshine instead of this ill conceived military blunder. What fascinated me most about the Pretraeus-Crocker vaudeville routine was their flawless soft shoe rendition of "Stay the Course" without either of them once suggesting a viable reason for doing so.

[FloridanReturns]

Last year the Left was claiming there had been as many as 200000 civilian deaths per year since the war started. This years rate is under 25000.

[alfrede]

Hi,
Excellent Lawrence Korb!
The President and VP will do all in their power to continue the Iraq war, as is, until they leave office.
When the Republican legislators realize that the military cannot provide the solution, it has to be a political solution and the political solution does not happen, they will vote to end our involvement.
The Pres & VP will do all in their power to keep the military going; hopefully the Army and Marine Corps will not be a broken force when they are finished.
What do U think?????????????????/