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Lawrence Korb

Lawrence Korb

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Robert Gates' Budget Dance

Posted: 03/16/11 03:33 PM ET

As Congress and the administration try to agree on reductions in federal spending, in order to avoid a government shutdown, the question about reducing the baseline defense budget for FY 2011 and FY 2012 has emerged as a point of contention. To understand why it should not be, it is necessary to go back three years.

In February 2008, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates requested that Congress appropriate $518 billion for the base defense budget (exclusive of war costs) for FY 2009, the last budget of the Bush administration. In presenting that budget, Gates said that if that amount were approved, and no changes were made to the defense program, the defense budget would need to rise to $533 billion in FY 2011 and $542 billion in FY 2012. At the time of Gates' request, the base budget was $137 billion or 36 percent higher than in FY 2001, the first Bush budget, and the federal deficit was $459 billion.

Three years later, after making what he claimed were $300 billion in program reductions and $178 billion in efficiencies savings, Gates argued that if Congress does not appropriate at least $540 billion for FY 2011 the results would be "catastrophic" and that he needed at least $553 billion for FY 2012.

Moreover, because the budget deficit for FY 2011 was now projected to be $1.6 trillion, and since defense consumes more than half of the discretionary budget and about 20 percent of the overall budget, groups like President Obama's deficit commission and Congressman Barney Frank's Sustainable Defense Task Force were saying that significant defense cuts had to be part of the solution to deal with the exploding federal deficit. Gates also called these efforts catastrophic and claimed they are exercises in math and had no strategic component.

What happened? Why is the base defense budget higher than was projected and higher after Gates made his reductions? The answer is simple. Most of the cuts he claimed credit for were not reductions. All Gates did was try to take credit for decisions that had already been made. For example, Secretary Rumsfeld had decided that the Air Force would be allowed to purchase 183 F-22 aircraft. In his FY 2010 request, Gates ended the program at 187 (he snuck 4 more into the war supplemental).

Similarly, Gates plowed the vast majority of his efficiency reductions into other programs that were not in the 5 year plan he presented to Congress in February 2008.

Gates' claim that reductions of this size are divorced from strategy is really the pot calling the kettle black. His own Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) does not make any tradeoffs or lay down a strategy. In fact, it tries to be all things to all people.

Since the defense budget consumes as much of the federal budget as the Social Security program and has actually grown faster than Social Security since 2001, it is natural that individuals and groups concerned with deficit reduction would scrutinize it. Indeed, the president's deficit reduction commission proposed reducing defense expenditures by $378 billion over the FY 2012-16 period.

If their reductions were implemented in full the U.S. baseline defense spending for FY 2012-16 would "fall" from $2.9 trillion to $2.6 trillion and still would amount to more than $500 billion a year. Even if one accounts for inflation, this amount is higher than we spent on average in the Cold War, higher than what the administration of George W. Bush spent in its eight years in office, and five times more than the Chinese spend.

Moreover, these reductions have a strategic component. They recommend that Gates adopt the proposals of groups he established to evaluate military pay and benefits, including health care, reduce our troops in Europe, and develop a counterterrorism strategy to deal with violent extremists like Al Qaeda, ideas that Gates himself embraced in an article in Foreign Affairs and a recent speech at West Point.

According to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the biggest threat to our national security is the exploding federal deficit. While reducing the defense budget by itself will not solve the problem, it must be part of the solution. By freezing non-defense discretionary spending, the President claims he will save $400 billion over the next decade. Implementing his own deficit commission's plan for defense would save twice as much and allow Congress to pass a budget to keep from shutting the government down.

Lawrence Korb, a former assistant secretary of defense in the Reagan administration, is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress.

 
 
 
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Buckeye54
...the One your mom warned you about!
08:42 AM on 03/17/2011
We are not going to make significant progress towards reducing our national deficit until we take the sacred bull of National Defense by the horns and wrestle it to the ground.

So, let's eliminate the following:
(1) Eliminate all PDCs. They are performing tasks for a profit that our military could be doing at cost.
(2) Eliminate no-bid contracts and bar any contractor found guilty of cheating the government from bidding on any future contracts.
(3) Mothball 5 of our eleven nuclear carriers. As long as we have too many of these costly behemoths prowling the oceans, we are too easily tempted to put our nose in somewhere where it doesn't belong.
(4) Break the cycle of high-ranking officers retiring and then getting a cushy job with a defense contractor.
(5) Make a commitment to our veterans that defense cuts will not come about by lowering the pensions and medical benefits they were promised when they enlisted.
01:23 PM on 03/21/2011
Yes. It is not like the PDC's have their heads in the public trough. They are swimming in it. The long term solution is a non profit defense industry concentrated in just a few locations. The best reductions now would be to get out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
RageVsMachine
A Bribe is a Bribe is A Bribe
02:07 PM on 03/21/2011
Though you're a buckeye, I have to F&F this well thought out plan.
08:31 AM on 03/17/2011
People don't seem to understand that that the American economy is so intertwined with war and the military that it is nearly impossible to cut the defense budget significantly because the end result would be the loss of many thousands of the few remaining high paying american blue-collar jobs. Our corporations have moved most manufacturing except defense-based programs overseas. Why do you think they gerrymandered the award of the tanker plane contract to award it to Boeing? Why do you think that , instead of down-selecting to one builder, the Navy miraculously found money to award two separate contracts to both Lockheed Martin and Austal when Austal's was clearly the better ship? Companies like Lockheed and Boeing now control our Government and military because they have spread their company divisions into every state and, the minute an award may appear to be going to some other company, they start pulling the financial strings on their congressmen and senators saying that there will be massive layoffs in many states if the award does not go to them. Just look at the Boeing "Dreamliner" which they farmed out pieces of to almost every state and several foreign countries. Now, as they try to put all of the pieces together, they don't fit. Had they built the entire plane in Seattle, as they used to do, those problems would likely not exist. The MIC rules, and will get their money, even if the rest of America starves.
01:26 PM on 03/21/2011
Right but it is going to take time to demilitarize the economy. Boeing was a better company when it was headquartered in Seattle and run by pilots.
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
realitytrumpsbull
Two 'alves of coconut!
12:05 AM on 03/17/2011
Gates also said 'no sacred cows', which I think is wise and shrewd. 'Defense' is often invoked when some companies and groups seem like their main objective is the sale of their latest gold-plated toilet seat to the federal government and the military for untold billions, and if you read about Air Force contract lady and other defensive fiscal follies, well, the saga continues. 

I think that all aspects of federal outlay should be critically examined during any year in which the government is running a deficit. And, that includes the most sacred of sacred cows, Bessie herself, 'defense'.  I think at some point, people in government reasoned that it is America's sole and singular raison d'etre to keep shoveling money into the gaping, bottomless maw of military expenditure, be that cost human, material, or financial, and maybe there comes point to start throttling back on all that, and asking some serious questions about our future, and ultimately, how big 'defense' has to get before voting just kind of doesn't really maybe matter so much anymore, something along those lines.

And, I yield the soap box.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
RRK70
08:04 PM on 03/16/2011
Don't blame the players. blame the game.

They need to reform the entire defense appropriation system.
-end cost plus contracting
-end no bid contracts
-end privatized services which are not cost effective
-do something to prevent politics from entering defense appropriations decisions.  Congress actually forces the Pentagon to continue certain programs because they are politically   tied to jobs in key Congressional districts.  Perhaps let Congress determine the size of the Pentagon budget and let the Pentagon work within that framework.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
frank day
Obama cares about all of U.S.
07:57 PM on 03/16/2011
The defense budget has decreased as a % of GDP.
We're still involved in two conflicts and face the daunting task of rebuilding for the next necessary intervention. Wherever that may be.
I think Mr. Gates is doing a superb job. I'm sure the President would agree.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
07:06 PM on 03/16/2011
When Gates came out with his Big Defense Cuts he never said he was cutting budget, just programs and parts of programs and then shuffling those funds elsewhere in Defense. I called it then , a sham for headlines the sheeple won't read past.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
tacevad
American SS Card Carrying Socialist
07:03 PM on 03/16/2011
According to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the biggest threat to our national security is the exploding federal deficit.
Of course back when we were fighting wars off budget it wasn't a problem at all.
06:22 PM on 03/16/2011
I saved $2.00 by walking home instead of taking a bus. I could have saved $25.00 by not taking a cab.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Cleverboots
06:22 PM on 03/16/2011
Obama has made a habit of appointing wrong people in the wrong jobs. Gates is a prime example as shown by his joking with Gen. Petraeus about war in Libya. We should be out of Iraq and getting out of Afghanistan with Libya off the table. For some reason, Gates has helped to deepen our military involvement in Afghanistan while continuing the travesty in Iraq. One has to wonder what he stands to gain from pushing us further into war. Does he own stock in Blackwater or Halliburton?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
FearlessFreep
A radical leftist with a JS Woodsworth avatar.
11:30 PM on 03/16/2011
He should have chosen Gary Hart instead.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Cleverboots
11:40 PM on 03/16/2011
You've got me there.Why Gary Hart? Thanks for the response
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Buckeye54
...the One your mom warned you about!
08:34 AM on 03/17/2011
Actually, I wish President Obama had selected former General Wesley Clark. And since Gates is supposed to retire before the end of the year, I hope Obama wakes up and selects this talented and intelligent man to be our next Secretary of Defense.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
PatLow
A karate man bruises on the inside
06:14 PM on 03/16/2011
The MIC has made cutting programs a very difficult thing. A cut to defense spending means a loss of jobs in the private sector. Look at the brush up over the duplicate engines that were to be produced in Ohio. The same goes for the award of the Boeing contract and how that is going to affect local economies.
 
I believe that we need to get out of Afghanistan and Iraq entirely. Then I would suggest spending more on contract/program oversight to insure that taxpayer dollars are not being wasted to the extent possible.
PaulArt
Under 50 and Screwed by the TParty65+
05:23 PM on 03/16/2011
The Defense budget is a huge jobs program for the GOP. Gates is a wily man who is perhaps bolstering his own resume to serve in future administrations but we should be thankful that he is not insane like Rumsfeld. The Defense budget is an unsolvable product of our dysfunctional 'Democracy'. Whatever the founding fathers envisioned when setting up the machinery of Government it is currently accomplishing exactly the opposite of what they wished. Its the tyranny of the minority. We are all being held to ransom by an elite that uses the levers of Government and works closely with the Corporations (Media included) to deny the betterment of Society. Its all proceeding as per the words of the great Baroness Thatcher - 'there is no such thing called Society".
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kenhamlett
05:18 PM on 03/16/2011
I simply cannot understand why Secretary Gates remains in his position. He was appointed by George W. Bush. To the horror of many Democrats, President Obama re-appointed him as a symbol of "bi-partisanship," but said that the Secretary had agreed to stay on for a year of transition. He is now in his third year in what has become a never-ending transition. Periodically, spokespersons hint that he might leave "next year," but next year never comes. Meanwhile, this George W. Bush Republican is running our unsuccessful Afghan war, failing to reduce the Pentagon budget to save discretionary programs that might benefit our students and needy, and serving as one of the President's top foreign policy and defense advisors (even when we know his policies in the past have been unsuccessful). I do not believe that those who voted for change in 2008 envisioned a Bush Defense Secretary for the entire first presidential term -- not to mention a continuation of the Bush policies abroad. But, like it or not, it is what we have. The President needs to show Mr. Gates the door.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
FearlessFreep
A radical leftist with a JS Woodsworth avatar.
11:31 PM on 03/16/2011
Bottom line: Obama was (and is) afraid of the Pentagon.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kenhamlett
11:45 PM on 03/16/2011
The man who was going to change Washington is now afraid of it. That's really too bad.
08:55 AM on 03/17/2011
Obama, alltho better than any GOP candidates for 2012 is still "BUSH LITE"
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
kenhamlett
12:13 PM on 03/17/2011
I agree. If the Republicans had any sense at all, they would find a competent moderate to run, and then the election might be interesting. But, none are in the mix at this point.
04:36 PM on 03/16/2011
What are they going to do? Cut the benefits of the soldiers?
06:25 PM on 03/16/2011
SInce benefits and pay have risen dramatically in the past decade, a cut would not be out of the question. There has been zero increase in the health insurance contributions. The days where solders make less than a McDonalds employee are long gone.
04:32 PM on 03/16/2011
The Lincoln Financial Solutions Plan...

Social Security is an easy fix...

1. Remove the cap on Social Security contributions to include all sources of income regardless of source or amount.
2. Eliminate ALL employer contributions completely.
3. Change the rate to a FLAT 5% of ALL personal earnings regardless of the source.
4. Lower the retirement age to 60 years of age.
5. Eliminate ALL IRA's as well as abolish ALL State, Federal and corporate pension programs.
6. Eliminate Medicare Program completely.
7. Eliminate Social Security Supplemental Income (SSI).
8. Make all contributions exempt from ANY & ALL taxes
9. Separate ALL contributions from the Federal Treasury and Budget system.

Make Social Security back to what it was intended for a RETIREMENT program. With these changes benifits may increase immediately.
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
05:42 PM on 03/16/2011
hahahahaha what a joke.....LOL
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
PatLow
A karate man bruises on the inside
06:10 PM on 03/16/2011
SS was never intended to be a retirement program. You also have to be able to contribute more to your personal retirement than what the federal government currently allows.
06:33 PM on 03/16/2011
Talking about what was intended in 1935 is useless. SS as it is today has been in effect since 1965, that is 45 years. The only reason SS is being discussed is the temporary down turn in the economy and the myth this affects the deficit. This is nothing more than a political agenda by conservatives. Up until recently both parties played games with the cash received .