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Leighton Vaughan Williams
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Blog Entries by Leighton Vaughan Williams

Election 2012: The Wisdom of the Crowd

(0) Comments | Posted November 26, 2012 | 5:43 PM

Now that the dust has slowly started to settle on the 2012 U.S. election campaign season, we are left with a picture of what happened, who won and who lost. Aside from the politicians who came in on the wrong side of the vote, the biggest losers of this election...

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Prediction Markets: The Other Big Winners on Election Night

(3) Comments | Posted November 8, 2012 | 11:01 PM

As the first election returns started to filter through on Tuesday evening, it soon became apparent that President Barack Obama was very likely to be re-elected to a second term in office. A comparison of early precinct returns with those registered in 2008 soon confirmed the evidence of the exit...

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Who Is Winning the Race for the White House?

(5) Comments | Posted October 30, 2012 | 6:41 PM

The conventional wisdom is that the betting markets are pointing to the re-election of the president while the polls apparently have Mitt Romney as the narrow favorite.

So what's the evidence?

Certainly, a glance at the betting markets reveals a pretty strong consensus that President Obama has a strong...

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Romney Loses Debate, But Will It Matter?

(3) Comments | Posted October 17, 2012 | 10:36 AM

When even a CNN poll, composed of a sample of debate watchers the pollsters freely admit to be 8 percent more Republican than the country as a whole, hands the debate to President Obama by 7 percentage points, you know that Governor Romney has taken something...

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Did Biden Beat Ryan?

(2) Comments | Posted October 12, 2012 | 8:04 PM

A pretty good way of finding out where things stand during the course of any event on which money is traded is to track the state of the in-play markets, and in particular the betting exchanges like Betfair. This is a particularly useful guide when it is not always easy...

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Romney and Ryan: Can They Turn Things Around?

(0) Comments | Posted September 16, 2012 | 8:09 PM

With less than eight weeks until election day, is it too late for Romney and Ryan to recover? It is a question which Republican sympathisers are starting to ask openly.

What is the evidence? First port of call is the betting markets, which show the President a handy favourite,...

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Is Paul Ryan Romney's Best Bet?

(8) Comments | Posted August 15, 2012 | 4:50 PM

Who would he select as his running mate? It was the question observers of the American political scene had been asking ever since Willard Mitt Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee for President of the United States. Would he follow the 2008 Republican precedent in selecting a risky potential game-changer,...

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The Culture, Media and Sport Committee's Report: a Bet Worth Taking?

(0) Comments | Posted July 31, 2012 | 12:23 PM

The cross-party Commons Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee has now published its much anticipated report examining the way in which gambling is and should be regulated in the UK, under the title, The Gambling Act 2005: A Bet Worth Taking?

In short, the Committee recommends that any local authority...

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