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The Palin Trap
On Friday, following McCain's announcement that Sarah Palin was his choice for running mate, like way too many others I allowed myself to indulge in the fantasy that this was the stupidest decision of a GOP presidential candidate since Dan Quayle was tapped for the role. Now that my post-DNC sense of invincibility has worn off, however, so has my triumphalism. I woke up yesterday morning with a much different sense of the Sarah Palin choice. I think it's a trap.
The McCain campaign knew exactly how both Democrats and the traditional media would respond to the Palin announcement, because it was entirely predictable. Choosing someone this plainly unqualified wasn't a mistake, and it wasn't even a gamble. It was a trade-off.
My suspicion is that the McCain campaign doesn't really care that Palin undermines McCain's case for experience, because they're not planning to use that argument anymore. They've decided that the experience argument is ineffective against Obama's change message, and they're more or less giving it up. Moreover, they know how to respond to attacks on Palin's total lack of qualification for the office, and are in fact inviting those attacks as a way to build sympathy with working class independent voters. That's where Palin's value lies.
Instead of continuing on the experience theme, McCain is front-loading his "Country First" message, and his campaign is taking the competition for working class voters on economic issues much more seriously than they were a few months ago. McCain has finally figured out that this is not going to be a national security election, and that Iraq is a distant second to the recession as the central issue in 2008. So it doesn't matter that Palin has no foreign policy experience. That's not what they need her for - they need her for the debate over the economy.
Of course, Palin is useless for any actual debate on the subject that might require policy expertise and persuasive argumentation. In that, she's similar to McCain, who is not identified as a Senator with any special knowledge on economic issues, and has been exposed as an out of touch multimillionaire. For all these reasons, and with GOP-style economics completely out of style, the McCain campaign is at a major disadvantage in any wonky policy debate on fixing the economy. Knowing this, and knowing that the election is going to be won or lost on whether their ticket is regarded as the best equipped to meet that challenge, the McCain campaign is doing what the GOP always does when it has to fight for working class voters in a debate that Republicans can't win on its merits: they are reverting to symbolic politics, a role for which Palin is tailor-made.
Palin was educated at a not-famous public university, received a bachelor's degree in journalism and became a sportscaster before entering the political arena. She married her high school sweetheart, a commercial fisherman and oil company worker (not an executive, or even a manager). Her political career began at the PTA. She raised four kids while holding down her career, and recently had a fifth. Compared to McCain, Obama and even Biden, her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women. While the McCain campaign whispers to voters in Peoria that Obama is not 'one of us,' with Palin they will be able to present a face and a story that is reassuringly familiar - much more so than the top of the ticket.
The McCain campaign is going to trot Palin out whenever they need to make the case that they feel America's pain. They're going to contrast her story to Obama's, and even to Biden's (not the part about being a scrappy kid from Scranton, but the part about being in the Senate for a million years). They're going to have her stick relentlessly to her personal biography, and avoid at all costs any discussion of policy. And whenever any Democrat attacks her for being inexperienced, they're going to turn to working class voters and ask why all these Harvard-educated, pointy-headed know-it-alls think that they know better how to help working families than a woman who worked her way through a demanding career while raising five kids, stayed married to her hard-working husband, and was so successful that she became a governor and then a VP nominee. They're going to turn any question about Palin's 'experience,' whether from a Dem or from a journalist, into another elitist attack on working class culture, another example of snooty, brainiac liberals condescending to ordinary Americans. And to boot, a bunch of good old boys picking on Mrs. Mom.
I don't believe that this is a bid for Hillary supporters, I think it's a bid for the same segment of the electorate that almost every tactic from both campaigns has been aimed at: white working class swing voters. I think the inevitable attacks on Palin are part of the purpose of her selection. By turning her into a lightning rod, they will be able to deflect attacks away from McCain toward a far more sympathetic figure, and then use those attacks as evidence in a far more powerful counterattack against typical liberal elitism.
We're best off not taking that bait.
Follow Leighton Woodhouse on Twitter: www.twitter.com/lwoodhouse
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Judging by the MSM response and the GOP calling them sexist, I say the media has already fallen for this trap. However, I wouldn't underestimate Obama. I'm sure he already has a strategy in place to deal with the new direction the election is taking.
Obama has trap detection skills out the who-ha, it's the laymen operatives who have to be careful in their zealotry and not turn off the independents.
Hear that, market and don't "mawk-it."
and Mr.Woodhouse proves beyond a shadow of a doubt all of the republican points in the course of his own blog...shades of the Holy O's San Francisco comments on the folks in Pennsylvania who are now not going to vote for him
very insightful analysis!
All of the democratic women in leadership should be out there not just HRC,this must be taken on an many fronts... the Carly Fiorino's who defend this stupid impulse and were jumped over for this mockery have to be challenged by Democratic CEO's and Pols... the Campaign must also ask Susan Eisenhower to step up... everyone overlooks , she was the first one on thursday to cite 'ole shakey's temperment in her speech at mile high... a great voice at this time.
Then its time to take them on on the "Maverick thing ".... they're so proud to be mavericks.... yet this is a time the american people need be able to count on their leaders...not their impulsiveness which they wind up calling maverick.... in a nutshell lets call mavericks , impulsives... he'll blow his wad trying to fight that off...and her.
Just highlight the facts and let them speak for themselves!
GOP are happy to have Elmer Fudd and Yosmite Sam in the White House. Yup! Yup!
She's and up and coming politician with a compelling life story, but she's not ready to be president and by her own account doesn't know what a veep does. Is that too elitist? Don't be such a wuss.
if this ploy works on the electorate as you suggest, how should the world view us?
as sober and empathetic examples of a democratic model to emulate or as morons who shouldn't be trusted with sharp crayons much less nuclear weapons?
gustav isn't the only storm "cummin' down the pike"....
d
this palin pick is a perfect opportunity for Hillary to shine...she can endear herself to us obama supporters who would be forever in her debt...and that debt can and will be repaid in 2016
This is a great analysis and EXACTLY what the Republicans are trying to do, but if Obama's advisors are smart - and they are - they should be able to easily counter this strategy
1. Firstly, leave Palin alone as much as possible; don't run ads about her or even mention her name.
The written press and other media will put intense pressure on her, and the far left will no doubt
viciously attack her, but these things are out of Obama's control anyway.
2. Secondly, go after McCain with a vengeance. The talking points would be:
Picking somebody - anybody - that he had met once in his life for couple of hours completely
undermines his credibility. How is this "putting country first???" How is this "using good
judgment"?????
Say that he is having a "Bush moment", comparing the selection of Palin with Bush''s comment
about "looking into Putin's eyes and seeing his soul"
Ask "What happened to the importance of national security"????? - which McCain has always said
was the most important issue facing the country
Charge him with pandering to the religious right.
Charge him with insulting women.
The combination of Obama going hard after McCain and the media scrutinizing Palin will force
McCain into a position of having to defend both himself and his running mate.
He wont be able to handle it and will start to crack. He'll start getting short tempered, angry,
impatient, and will isolate himself even further from the press.
McCain will
Great suggestions!
I don't think it's a play for Clinton's supporters, either. McCain doesn't have to do anything to win the racists who preferred Clinton to Obama except persist not being black, and the angry middle class women were louder than they were numerous all along. Even among that number, it's unlikely that even a large minority will actually vote for McCain, although they might stay home.
You're right - it's a trap.
I think you miss the nature of the trap. It has to do with controlling the media narrative, and determining who gets to play offence and who gets to play defence.
Rather than post it all, here's a link to the bait:
http://cousinavi.wordpress.com/2008/09/01/the-palin-strategy-bait/
Spot on!
This is definitely bait. Hard to believe the fevered pitch her nomination has caused at this point, and it's been only three days.
I agree the only way Obama and Biden will win this thing will be to stick to the issues.
This is the most thoughtful blog I have read so far. On the money. And that is why I am feeling so sick to my stomach since Friday. I guess I love my country too much to see this mockery play itself out.
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