The Palin Trap
On Friday, following McCain's announcement that Sarah Palin was his choice for running mate, like way too many others I allowed myself to indulge in the fantasy that this was the stupidest decision of a GOP presidential candidate since Dan Quayle was tapped for the role. Now that my post-DNC sense of invincibility has worn off, however, so has my triumphalism. I woke up yesterday morning with a much different sense of the Sarah Palin choice. I think it's a trap.
The McCain campaign knew exactly how both Democrats and the traditional media would respond to the Palin announcement, because it was entirely predictable. Choosing someone this plainly unqualified wasn't a mistake, and it wasn't even a gamble. It was a trade-off.
My suspicion is that the McCain campaign doesn't really care that Palin undermines McCain's case for experience, because they're not planning to use that argument anymore. They've decided that the experience argument is ineffective against Obama's change message, and they're more or less giving it up. Moreover, they know how to respond to attacks on Palin's total lack of qualification for the office, and are in fact inviting those attacks as a way to build sympathy with working class independent voters. That's where Palin's value lies.
Instead of continuing on the experience theme, McCain is front-loading his "Country First" message, and his campaign is taking the competition for working class voters on economic issues much more seriously than they were a few months ago. McCain has finally figured out that this is not going to be a national security election, and that Iraq is a distant second to the recession as the central issue in 2008. So it doesn't matter that Palin has no foreign policy experience. That's not what they need her for - they need her for the debate over the economy.
Of course, Palin is useless for any actual debate on the subject that might require policy expertise and persuasive argumentation. In that, she's similar to McCain, who is not identified as a Senator with any special knowledge on economic issues, and has been exposed as an out of touch multimillionaire. For all these reasons, and with GOP-style economics completely out of style, the McCain campaign is at a major disadvantage in any wonky policy debate on fixing the economy. Knowing this, and knowing that the election is going to be won or lost on whether their ticket is regarded as the best equipped to meet that challenge, the McCain campaign is doing what the GOP always does when it has to fight for working class voters in a debate that Republicans can't win on its merits: they are reverting to symbolic politics, a role for which Palin is tailor-made.
Palin was educated at a not-famous public university, received a bachelor's degree in journalism and became a sportscaster before entering the political arena. She married her high school sweetheart, a commercial fisherman and oil company worker (not an executive, or even a manager). Her political career began at the PTA. She raised four kids while holding down her career, and recently had a fifth. Compared to McCain, Obama and even Biden, her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women. While the McCain campaign whispers to voters in Peoria that Obama is not 'one of us,' with Palin they will be able to present a face and a story that is reassuringly familiar - much more so than the top of the ticket.
The McCain campaign is going to trot Palin out whenever they need to make the case that they feel America's pain. They're going to contrast her story to Obama's, and even to Biden's (not the part about being a scrappy kid from Scranton, but the part about being in the Senate for a million years). They're going to have her stick relentlessly to her personal biography, and avoid at all costs any discussion of policy. And whenever any Democrat attacks her for being inexperienced, they're going to turn to working class voters and ask why all these Harvard-educated, pointy-headed know-it-alls think that they know better how to help working families than a woman who worked her way through a demanding career while raising five kids, stayed married to her hard-working husband, and was so successful that she became a governor and then a VP nominee. They're going to turn any question about Palin's 'experience,' whether from a Dem or from a journalist, into another elitist attack on working class culture, another example of snooty, brainiac liberals condescending to ordinary Americans. And to boot, a bunch of good old boys picking on Mrs. Mom.
I don't believe that this is a bid for Hillary supporters, I think it's a bid for the same segment of the electorate that almost every tactic from both campaigns has been aimed at: white working class swing voters. I think the inevitable attacks on Palin are part of the purpose of her selection. By turning her into a lightning rod, they will be able to deflect attacks away from McCain toward a far more sympathetic figure, and then use those attacks as evidence in a far more powerful counterattack against typical liberal elitism.
We're best off not taking that bait.
Follow Leighton Woodhouse on Twitter: www.twitter.com/lwoodhouse
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
How stupid one can be (mabelle55 ...) to even imagine McCain will do something for the working class people?? He's not even gonna lift his lil finger for them! And that's for sure. How stupid one can be after eight years of McBushCo??? He's out of touch and old selfish and reckless man. His military record is not a hero's story. Someone who crashes 5 airplanes almost deliberately, takes of with a 23 year old cheerleader gal when his frist wife lies badly wounded in hospital. The frist wife who looked after him for years when he came home from Vietnam! And you believe this man cares for others! You gotta be joking!!!
For the life of me I don't understand how any self-respecting woman would allow themselves to be duped into accepting this position. I don't care what the rationale, be it in the favor of democrats or republicans. I don't really care how it "looks" to the average white woman (of which I happen to be). Like the beauty queen she once was, she is selling out women of intellect. And please don't insult me by saying, if asked, she must accept. Free will is still somewhat practiced in the US although it is eroding daily.
I believe she was chosen to appeal to men, not women and especially not women who voted for HRC. Despite a few PUMAS most of those women are more evolved than to think we should turn back the clock and allow our men-folk to drag us around by our hair. Stand up straight Sarah Palin, your back has got to hurt!
Agree with the author. we best be very careful when criticizing her.
It is a plausible scenario. Democrats just have not be aware of this trap and still go on to tie McCain and Bush, Palin and Cheney and the chaos they have unleashed on this country. We cannot survive another four disastrous years under Republicans.
Our survival is at stake, as individuals and as a nation, The polarizing radical right is dictating the direction of this country. We must as though our very lives depend on it. Now the republicans are using a hurricane as a political tool.i
What is quite interesting is, that McCain voters say they vote Republican because they keep America up in the world. But Republicans are doing quite the opposite: they ruin the country year by year.
- America is military weakened because of Iraq and Afghanistan
- America is economically weakened because of dependency on Chinese debts and Arabian Oil
- America is morally weakened because of rejecting international organizations and treaties
The Republicans offer more decline for America. It's ridiculous that people don't see it. If McCain wins this election, and Sarah Palin will bePresident in four or eight years time, the USA is finished as a super power. EU is on the rise, India is on the rise, China is on the rise, Russia is on the rise. With this kind of policy another four, eight or sixteen years the US will get lesser and lesser important.
It seems the USA is on the best way of becoming the Soviet Union of the 21st century. The difference to the USSR is that Americans seem to willingly elect their fate...
:her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women."
Many American "white working class voters" do resemble drama queens and vote accordingly, otherwise Bush could never become a president.
"Compared to McCain, Obama and even Biden, her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women."
Picking Palin is McCain's attempt to shore up support in the ten states now shakiest for him: Nevada and Colorado, Montana and the Dakotas, Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. A high turnout among ultra-conservative white women, if it turns the tide by just 2% in these states, would solidify his position in most of them and make winning a possibility in the rest.
For that to work, the least well-educated and least feminist voters in these states will need to look no further than Palin's gender and ideology, in effect embracing Phyllis Schlafly in mucklucks, and ignore her complete inexperience as a national leader. Mrs. Palin's novelty and ideology would need to trump her lack of knowledge and relevant proven ability--and the voters' actual economic interests.
This reflects a very cynical view of "working class voters, especially white women." But, then, isn't that exactly how Republicans get elected?
Don't over think their decision to Pick Palin as a Vice President nominee, it was panic. To over think it is the real trap because all the McCain campaign and the Republicans, who have crappy track record with woman, all they are doing right now is winging it. The McCain campaign is winging it. This was a desperate move forced on the McCain campaign after Obama picked Biden. Honestly, Sarah Palin was waiting in the wings a year ago as a possible weak running mate because Republicans seriously thought Hillary Clinton would win the nomination.
Let the Republicans wing it and implode and show their sexism. They don't know how to deal with a woman on the ticket. Make her debate, don't underestimate and we should hit her hard on details and policies.
Have to agree with you, next.
My suspicion is that, the fact being McCain only met her once in February, before a phone call a week ago to vet her, that McCain himself did not make this decision. She was chosen for him...
well done mr. woodhouse
you have hit the nail squarely on the head
the democrats will forget, at theirs and the nation's peril, that palin is not john mccain's pick
she is karl rove's pick
let us pray that, after eight long years of being consistently out-maneuvered by this political puppet master, they have finally figured it out and will respond accordingly
oh please there was nothing of rove in this
Why would Karl Rove be on record of bashing the idea that a Tim Kaine pick would be a disaster purely because he is a first term govenor from Virginia that isn't the biggest state. That a pick like that would show Obama wasn't putting Country first and would be picking someone unqualified to be a heartbeat away from the presidency and thus be a poor decision maker. I don't see Karl Rove's hands on this at all. When you look at her and here her experience, do YOU think she could be Commander in Chief? Perhaps on the ticket with a much younger man or woman at the top of the ticket wouldn't bring the thought of "Could she step in at a moments notice??" to the forefront of everyone's mind.
But this one does. ANd the answer is NO. Why would she bring up Billary Clinton and Geraldine Ferraro in fron tof Republican crowds... THAT is why she was chosen.
Karl has lost his step ever since he predicted that the House and Senate would stay Republican in 2006 just befreo the election. He's a phantom. And while I'mstill afraid of the boogeyman,
If that's their calculation, I'm not sure that Republicans have figured working-class psychology right. Working-class folks don't think another working-class person is going to champion their cause. They've seen too much of this kind of betrayal by their own kind. As soon as somebody makes it, they forget their lowly roots. It's the working-class that will choose somebody with a brain, with education. So this may come back to bite the Republicans. Notice how fast Alaskans are pissing on her?
But yes, Palin is being used as a symbol. I'm not sure of what!
You mean six long years, right? Or did we not take both houses in 2006?
Did we? It's hard to tell sometimes.
Control of Congress means nothing anymore without also controlling the White House, as the last two years have shown.
Hear, hear! Blog readers and political junkies need to remember that elections are decided by image, sound bites, slogans. Quit patting ourselves on the back and remember that the majority of voters are uninformed and unsophisticated- getting their info from the MSM.
Finally, someone else who understand the Palin pick and says no to the knee-jerk reaction.
Everything you say here is true, and you know what: its brilliant politics, whether you like it or not.
"Brilliant politics" has ruined this country.
"They're going to have her stick relentlessly to her personal biography, and avoid at all costs any discussion of policy."
Aha! I get it!
So McCain says, "I was a POW!" And Palin says... let's see... "I was a sportscaster!"
This wins.
-- bi, http://fra
Precisely. I've been commenting hither and yon this past couple of days, and I'm absolutely appalled at the credulity of otherwise intelligent liberals. The McCain campaign has just seized control over the political dialogue and orchestrated a protracted debate on the subject of Sarah Palin's integrity. This is not the discussion we want to be having. Scott Rasmussen, from Rasmussen Reports pegged her as McCain's most attractive selection in July. I've had her pegged as dangerous for months. The swing in this election, right now, is with white, non-hispanic women voters and McCain just chose a candidate they will identify with and painted a bullseye on her back.
Why is it that Democrats continue to underestimate their opponents?
why does mccain underestimate the intelligence of the majority.
Why is it that Democrats continue to underestimate their opponents?
Could it be because their opponents are known liars, cheaters, and idiots?
I don't think that the opponents are being underestimated. If anything, the voters are being overestimated. If voters paid attention, we would not be in our current mess.
I agree completely. Let's stop writing and reading about her.
Good idea. Stick our heads in the sand. Why on earth didn't more voters do that when G.W. was running?
Sounds reasonable. Fortunately it's mainly her Republican fellow Alaskans who mark her 'not experienced enough to do the job'.
It seems the Democratic camp has understood the trap, that's why they keep silent about judging SP.
she has enough rope to hang herself. and the noose is being revealed with every piece of vetting being done/
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
