The Palin Trap

On Friday, following McCain's announcement that Sarah Palin was his choice for running mate, like way too many others I allowed myself to indulge in the fantasy that this was the stupidest decision of a GOP presidential candidate since Dan Quayle was tapped for the role. Now that my post-DNC sense of invincibility has worn off, however, so has my triumphalism. I woke up yesterday morning with a much different sense of the Sarah Palin choice. I think it's a trap.

The McCain campaign knew exactly how both Democrats and the traditional media would respond to the Palin announcement, because it was entirely predictable. Choosing someone this plainly unqualified wasn't a mistake, and it wasn't even a gamble. It was a trade-off.

My suspicion is that the McCain campaign doesn't really care that Palin undermines McCain's case for experience, because they're not planning to use that argument anymore. They've decided that the experience argument is ineffective against Obama's change message, and they're more or less giving it up. Moreover, they know how to respond to attacks on Palin's total lack of qualification for the office, and are in fact inviting those attacks as a way to build sympathy with working class independent voters. That's where Palin's value lies.

Instead of continuing on the experience theme, McCain is front-loading his "Country First" message, and his campaign is taking the competition for working class voters on economic issues much more seriously than they were a few months ago. McCain has finally figured out that this is not going to be a national security election, and that Iraq is a distant second to the recession as the central issue in 2008. So it doesn't matter that Palin has no foreign policy experience. That's not what they need her for - they need her for the debate over the economy.

Of course, Palin is useless for any actual debate on the subject that might require policy expertise and persuasive argumentation. In that, she's similar to McCain, who is not identified as a Senator with any special knowledge on economic issues, and has been exposed as an out of touch multimillionaire. For all these reasons, and with GOP-style economics completely out of style, the McCain campaign is at a major disadvantage in any wonky policy debate on fixing the economy. Knowing this, and knowing that the election is going to be won or lost on whether their ticket is regarded as the best equipped to meet that challenge, the McCain campaign is doing what the GOP always does when it has to fight for working class voters in a debate that Republicans can't win on its merits: they are reverting to symbolic politics, a role for which Palin is tailor-made.

Palin was educated at a not-famous public university, received a bachelor's degree in journalism and became a sportscaster before entering the political arena. She married her high school sweetheart, a commercial fisherman and oil company worker (not an executive, or even a manager). Her political career began at the PTA. She raised four kids while holding down her career, and recently had a fifth. Compared to McCain, Obama and even Biden, her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women. While the McCain campaign whispers to voters in Peoria that Obama is not 'one of us,' with Palin they will be able to present a face and a story that is reassuringly familiar - much more so than the top of the ticket.

The McCain campaign is going to trot Palin out whenever they need to make the case that they feel America's pain. They're going to contrast her story to Obama's, and even to Biden's (not the part about being a scrappy kid from Scranton, but the part about being in the Senate for a million years). They're going to have her stick relentlessly to her personal biography, and avoid at all costs any discussion of policy. And whenever any Democrat attacks her for being inexperienced, they're going to turn to working class voters and ask why all these Harvard-educated, pointy-headed know-it-alls think that they know better how to help working families than a woman who worked her way through a demanding career while raising five kids, stayed married to her hard-working husband, and was so successful that she became a governor and then a VP nominee. They're going to turn any question about Palin's 'experience,' whether from a Dem or from a journalist, into another elitist attack on working class culture, another example of snooty, brainiac liberals condescending to ordinary Americans. And to boot, a bunch of good old boys picking on Mrs. Mom.

I don't believe that this is a bid for Hillary supporters, I think it's a bid for the same segment of the electorate that almost every tactic from both campaigns has been aimed at: white working class swing voters. I think the inevitable attacks on Palin are part of the purpose of her selection. By turning her into a lightning rod, they will be able to deflect attacks away from McCain toward a far more sympathetic figure, and then use those attacks as evidence in a far more powerful counterattack against typical liberal elitism.

We're best off not taking that bait.

Follow Leighton Woodhouse on Twitter: www.twitter.com/lwoodhouse

Comments

[MrMilesLong]

Interestingly, the best person to go on attack against Palin is Senator Clinton. And it is something she must do when the timing is right. Right now is too early.

Biden must NOT attack Palin during the debates but make it obvious who is better prepared to lead the country by appearing knowledgeable, calm and "presidential."

Obama must do two things: 1) attack McCain's continued display of questionable judgment and 2) help Hillary relieve her debt asap (and prevent any potential peeling of HRC supporters to the Palin camp.

[obamagirl1968]

I agree! McSame actually made a post-convention Hillary useful to Obama. He also drove 'home' all but the most crazed Hillbots.

[DRaymond]

Well, maybe that is what they are thinking, but I don't think it will work. For all that it shares with the experience of most Americans Alaska might as well be on the other side of the planet (which is not far from where it really is). They are somehow going to relate to a mom who hunts Caribou?

If McCain was going to deliberately toss away the experience argument it was a mistake. However the choice tosses away more than that. It tosses away the 'puts america first' argument because picking Palin was about an attractive story and gender and religious politics than any need of the counrty. It also tosses out the 'Temprament and Judgement' argument since when a big judgement was needed he went with petty considerations (a charming backstory rather than actually being qualified for the job).

[Zoolie]

AT LEAST SHE'S NOT ALWAYS WEARING A PANTSUIT.

[todayslies]

insightful analysis

[closerthanuthink]

I agree with the premise of the post (A trap indeed!), but if anyone thinks the Obama camp is going to adopt a strategy of "all out warfare" against Palin, think again! That'll be done here, on the blogsphere (in that vein check out this clip):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKkydrUnBZE
- and I may be wrong, but this isn't the place you'll find the demographic that the choice (presumably, and according to you Mr Woodhouse) targets - again, I may be wrong. Of course the MSM, who've been getting about 99% of their "facts/ fiction" (which they then proceed to spin in whatever way boosts the ratings - if I here "Red Meat" again I'm going Vegi!!!!) from the blogs, will try baiting everyone out there. But the Obama Camp's come this far without breaking a sweat (at least in my opinion), despite all the cries for "action" from all over the place, so enough of the panic! And one more thing: it is a trap, but it's also a cras attempt to appeal to woman voters (note I didn't say Hillary voters!), a boost to McSames new "I'm all for Women" stance", as opposed to his former "How do we beat the B***h!" persona (a.k.a the straight talking, real McCain)!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLQGWpRVA7o

[TommyTwo]

Why was Sarah Palin arrested in Alaska? According to www.criminalsearches.com she has a record of some kind. The name and birth date are hers. All the data has been stripped from the record.

Here's an image of the record: http://www.thomasnogales.com/sarahpalin.htm

Does anyone know what this is about? Traffic offense?

[moonwatcher]

This woman is not an Independent. She is a Republican and if she is going to be a Vice President
McCain and she will have to take responsibility for Bushes administration. After all McCain supported Bush 95 percent of the time. She is not running separately from McCain. When she accepted the Vice President nominee position from McCain, she accepted following his positions. If the nation wants to continue the Bush Administration they will vote for McCain. From what I have been reading they really aren't happy with the last eight years.

[Higherground]

I imagine that McCain really wanted Lieberman, and when he was told no, he gave up.

Oy vey

I was so excited at the begginning of this cycle. I liked both McCain and Obama and I thought his selection by the repubs signaled their desire to change America. Palin's wordview represents broken Washington more than Biden's years in D.C.

[Charmed]

I am so thankful to see the comments on this blog "ya'll get it"...it's a trap and we have to stay focus.

[cvillelisa]

If McCain was the maverick he claims to be, he would have avoided this Rove-ian puppet show and picked the person he really wanted for the job -- Lieberman. THAT would have been being a maverick.

This pick just stinks of right winged bird poop.

[4dogs]

I recently saw her on TV already attacking Biden for his votes against drilling in Alaska. Let her rant and don't get pulled into it. She will screw up on her own. People will realize how little she actually knows and think about it. Biden needs to be very careful to be gracious, charming and more Vice
Presidential. That's all he has to do. He doesn't have to prove anything.

[WhoIsJohnGalt42]

unfortunately i think this is very true. i have never quite understood why our society so despises 'intellectuals' but not the 'rich'. on the face it seems counter intuitive. i understand that 90% of americans are neither highly intellectual or exceedingly wealthy so there should be jealousy and a feelings of inadequacy fueling a dislike of both sides. and while 'intellectuals' have a long history (say since the renaissances) wanting to share their 'wealth' (ie knowledge) with everyone thus raising the intellect of everyone (see the proliferation of schools and universities) it is pretty clear that the same cannot be said of the rich (i am sure there are a few exceptions). for the most part the rich set up institutions and governments for the specific purpose of keeping wealth entirely to themselves and away from the have nots as much as possible. i mean there is even a snide term for those who happen to break this wealth strangle hold and become rich themselves - "nouveau riche". is there a "nouveau scholar"? it can't be that it is easier to become rich than brilliant. i imagine it is just as hard work to be come wealthy as it is to become highly intellectual and well educated. maybe it is people think they might become rich by luck (lottery) but only reading, scholarship and exhausting rational thought will make them intellectuals? this phenomena really confuses me. why do americans despise and denigrate intellect but love and laud wealth?

[mesut]

This presidency is not about Palin...it's about all the other american people. Hopefully people will get over this hub-hub about her and get back to the issues that face us every day.

[23000Days]

It is a comedy that better watched than commented on!

[4dogs]

Excellent comments. I think it would be a big mistake to get negative on her and it will backfire. It would be more prudent to find out how she really feels about women's issues, such as health care, equal pay for equal work, the minimum wage, leave for sick kids etc. What would be even better is for Hillary to have an ad where she is talking about the differences in their view for what matters to women.