The Palin Trap

On Friday, following McCain's announcement that Sarah Palin was his choice for running mate, like way too many others I allowed myself to indulge in the fantasy that this was the stupidest decision of a GOP presidential candidate since Dan Quayle was tapped for the role. Now that my post-DNC sense of invincibility has worn off, however, so has my triumphalism. I woke up yesterday morning with a much different sense of the Sarah Palin choice. I think it's a trap.

The McCain campaign knew exactly how both Democrats and the traditional media would respond to the Palin announcement, because it was entirely predictable. Choosing someone this plainly unqualified wasn't a mistake, and it wasn't even a gamble. It was a trade-off.

My suspicion is that the McCain campaign doesn't really care that Palin undermines McCain's case for experience, because they're not planning to use that argument anymore. They've decided that the experience argument is ineffective against Obama's change message, and they're more or less giving it up. Moreover, they know how to respond to attacks on Palin's total lack of qualification for the office, and are in fact inviting those attacks as a way to build sympathy with working class independent voters. That's where Palin's value lies.

Instead of continuing on the experience theme, McCain is front-loading his "Country First" message, and his campaign is taking the competition for working class voters on economic issues much more seriously than they were a few months ago. McCain has finally figured out that this is not going to be a national security election, and that Iraq is a distant second to the recession as the central issue in 2008. So it doesn't matter that Palin has no foreign policy experience. That's not what they need her for - they need her for the debate over the economy.

Of course, Palin is useless for any actual debate on the subject that might require policy expertise and persuasive argumentation. In that, she's similar to McCain, who is not identified as a Senator with any special knowledge on economic issues, and has been exposed as an out of touch multimillionaire. For all these reasons, and with GOP-style economics completely out of style, the McCain campaign is at a major disadvantage in any wonky policy debate on fixing the economy. Knowing this, and knowing that the election is going to be won or lost on whether their ticket is regarded as the best equipped to meet that challenge, the McCain campaign is doing what the GOP always does when it has to fight for working class voters in a debate that Republicans can't win on its merits: they are reverting to symbolic politics, a role for which Palin is tailor-made.

Palin was educated at a not-famous public university, received a bachelor's degree in journalism and became a sportscaster before entering the political arena. She married her high school sweetheart, a commercial fisherman and oil company worker (not an executive, or even a manager). Her political career began at the PTA. She raised four kids while holding down her career, and recently had a fifth. Compared to McCain, Obama and even Biden, her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women. While the McCain campaign whispers to voters in Peoria that Obama is not 'one of us,' with Palin they will be able to present a face and a story that is reassuringly familiar - much more so than the top of the ticket.

The McCain campaign is going to trot Palin out whenever they need to make the case that they feel America's pain. They're going to contrast her story to Obama's, and even to Biden's (not the part about being a scrappy kid from Scranton, but the part about being in the Senate for a million years). They're going to have her stick relentlessly to her personal biography, and avoid at all costs any discussion of policy. And whenever any Democrat attacks her for being inexperienced, they're going to turn to working class voters and ask why all these Harvard-educated, pointy-headed know-it-alls think that they know better how to help working families than a woman who worked her way through a demanding career while raising five kids, stayed married to her hard-working husband, and was so successful that she became a governor and then a VP nominee. They're going to turn any question about Palin's 'experience,' whether from a Dem or from a journalist, into another elitist attack on working class culture, another example of snooty, brainiac liberals condescending to ordinary Americans. And to boot, a bunch of good old boys picking on Mrs. Mom.

I don't believe that this is a bid for Hillary supporters, I think it's a bid for the same segment of the electorate that almost every tactic from both campaigns has been aimed at: white working class swing voters. I think the inevitable attacks on Palin are part of the purpose of her selection. By turning her into a lightning rod, they will be able to deflect attacks away from McCain toward a far more sympathetic figure, and then use those attacks as evidence in a far more powerful counterattack against typical liberal elitism.

We're best off not taking that bait.

Follow Leighton Woodhouse on Twitter: www.twitter.com/lwoodhouse

Comments

[LillianB]

You're right. Weakness is strength, isn't that the Rove credo? Sarah Palin will be McCain's defence against Obama's "it is that he doesn't get it" accusation (his convention speech). Palin will tell voters that she gets it, and that she has McCain's ear.

[2cntswrth]

Your analysis of the possible Republican strategy is good. "Image politics" is exactly the purpose of McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. She's beautiful, super-mom/woman, right-winged, young and energetic--and has little experience. These are the "image qualities" being presented to counter-balance an aging, millionaire, with a history of serious medical problems and a quite a few years in Washington.

If the Democrats somehow move away from the "image politics" and focus specifically on policy issues, they can appeal to those who already know how to sort through the B.S. and think for themselves, and they can also help inform and educate those who aren't used to doing it. For the last 8 years, the American public has been told to simply trust the Goverment without thinking for themselves and deciding upon what is best for us as a nation. McCain's selection of his running mate is just another example of how they operate. "Don't question-- just trust and obey because they take their direction from God." Well, just because they say it, doesn't make it so.

[bohdibell]

Of course it's a trap, these skunks have nothing else to run on.

[yesman]

The fact that this probably is the best pick McCain could have made is a testament to the Republicans' desperation. If he had picked any of the usual suspects--Romney, Lieberman--his campaign would have been dead in the water. Now his ticket makes Obama's "change" message harder to sell. It looks like the Republicans want change too--they even picked A WOMAN to be Vice President. The reality that Palin's ideology is completely consistent with the Republican status quo doesn't matter, because she LOOKS different. That makes Obama/Biden's "more of the same" message also harder to sell, because not only does Palin not look like the typical aging white male Republican, but since she has virtually no record at all, it's much more difficult to show that she'll be "the same." She can't really be "the same" when she's essentially NOTHING--no record or experience at all.

Palin will hurt McCain only if "the people" are smart enough to figure out all of the above and be incensed thay they're being blatantly manipulated by a bunch of cynical Republican strategists. Given recent history, the chances of that happening seem slim indeed.

[yesman]

Palin is a trap. The Dems can't attack her without appearing to be bullies or anti-woman or anti-working-class. If they bring up the inexperience issue, they just remind voters of Obama's relative lack of experience (though his experience is more relevant than hers).

Obama and Biden should simply ignore her. Treat her like the irrelevant purely political spokesmodel that she is. Don't attack her, just refuse to acknowledge her. EXCEPT to remind voters that even in her scant 18 months as governor, she has already inspired an ethics investigation by the legislature of a Republican­-dominated state; she has flip-flopped on the "Bridge to Nowhere" project for purely craven political reasons; and even the journalists in her own conservative state are already asserting that she's an unqualified candidate who should never be allowed to be one 72-year-old heartbeat away from becoming the most powerful person on Earth. The "she's not even qualified to be governor, much less Vice President" angle might work, if that sentiment can be attributed to relatively non-partisan Alaskans.

[calichic]

If it works, this country is in more trouble than I thought----if that's possible.

[Dustoff46]

Let's be clear. John McCain's 'maverick' days came to an end when as his first Presidential Decision he picked Gov. Palin.

[CBS]

There is no need to attack Palin...th­e ticket is now a joke....

http://www.sfbaysailingpix.com/pez2008p1.htm

[tuttlemsm]

You can't just ignore her. If she is given a free pass, people will assume that--- in the absence of any criticism--- that she must be qualified and experienced after all. Dukakis ignored Willie Horton--- and in the absence of any response, people assumed "there must be something to it." Kerry ignored the swift-boating, and in the absence of any response, people assumed "there must be something to it."

It all has to do with tone. You don't have to ridicule the puniness of her hometown. But you can legitimately question whether it is sufficient preparation to be a heartbeat away from the presidency.

You don't have snigger about her past as a beauty queen. But you can legitimately question her view of women's changing roles in society.

You don't have to attack her for choosing to return to work almost immediately after having a child. But you can question what she intends to do on the family-and­-medical-l­eave policy front to ensure that all Americans have the same choices she did.

Over-scrutinizing or under-scrutinizing her because of her gender is sexist either way. She should get the same scrutiny as Joe Biden. No more, no less.

[lifejunkie]

Awesome comment..T­hanks for making it!

[ProudLiberalDan]

I agree that she cannot be ignored.

Most of the focus should go to her far-right ideology and how she would be more the same failed policies whatever her style. Whatever she is like on the surface, she is more of McSame underneath.

The GOP is desperate for this to be a campaign about personalities and "experience", and not about the issues or Bush/Chene­y/McCain's failed policies.

[Mysticalsister]

The most important thing we can do is to educate the country about who she really is and what she stands for -- and hold the media accountable if they do not do their jobs. A vast majority of women care deeply about the issue of choice, and a majority of the men in our country agree with them. Palin is a red herring chosen specifically to cause the Obama campaign to take their eye off the ball. "stay on target, stay on target" -- and the target is McCain.

[Queen0fCups]

I think that is very good advice.

I think all the over the top rhetoric is ridiculous.

Furthermore, I think these are discussions we should have. And it's ok to have different opinions at the end of the day. Agree to disagree and then vote your conscience.

I like the fact that she is a self-made woman, not riding the coat-tails of her husband, PTA mom made good, beauty queen, sportswoman, mother and intelligent and articulate. I understand she is not some people's ideal of femininity or representing feminism, but I recognize that to many others she is.

What is important is that our daughters see that there are many ways to be a successful woman in America, and that it is important to be who you are and not what conform to someone else's ideals.

Some of the discussions and comments I have read concerning her parenting are ridiculous. Hey, if she has the energy to raise five kids and be a Governor and now perhaps a VP or even President - good for her. Her family looks nice and well adjusted. I am happy for her to have accomplished all of that. I know I never could. My kids wore me out! I could not imagine having worked when my kids were young. But God bless the women across America who do it! And do it well!

[The 13 Colonies]

Palin is still under investigation for abuse of power when she was major.....­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­..........­........

[madhatter123]

What I don't get is that Palin and her husband make $200K annually and have 3 houses - 1 residential and 2 recreational. Does the middle class relate to this and am I now closer to being in the lower class?

[jacq8411]

I have 3 homes. 1 I live in, 1 Rental one recreational. I work hard so does my husband. I'm in a union I vote republican. My mom raised 4 kids alone. We never had all the utilities on at one time. Sometimes we melted snow to fill the toilet tank so we could flush it. My point is she votes republican. You dems make a mistake in thinking that people who have less are envious of those who have more and want to take it away. We don't we want the same opportunities to achieve that's all. I could care less how many houses McCain has just like I didn't care about Kerrys fortune which dwarfs McCains and whose houses number in the double digits.. You guys are barking up the wrong tree.

[ex-pat]

Have you seen houses in Alaska?

[foolchild0]

Good post. I feel that if Obama and Biden keep going as they are, Palin will be a non-issue. She won't be throwing any punches at them, and she'll render herself irrelevant.

[LeeCalif]

Unfortunately, my comment here is being censored. I inadvertently posted it under Lindsay Graham's TV interview. But I believe Palin Is a trap for us. Please see comment at Graham post regarding Palin being the vehicle for Republicans to obtain the White House and then she would resign and Romney
would take her place.

Romney would take office without winning a single vote or answering a single debate question.

[Queen0fCups]

Wow! I haven't heard that one!

I bet Cheney or Rove came up with that!

[JJeff88]

There's no reason to directly attack Palin.

The best case Obama supporters can make is:

In making what each candidate has termed "the most important decision they'd make prior to the election" with the chief criterion being "the person best able to step right in and be President.­"

Sen. Obama chose Joe Biden.

John McCain chose Sarah Palin

Who made the wisest decision?

We know Joe Biden is well-prepared to step in as President if need be.

We don't know very much about Sarah Palin.

No need to attack anyone - the people are smart enough to figure this one out all by themselves.

[LeeCalif]

McCain has say, a dozen homes.
Romney has say, another dozen homes. Hmmm....
You can't debate the economy , when you and your running mate have 2 dozen homes and your opponents merely have 2.

Time to change running mates.....

Bring in someone with hardly any record to attack(no baggage)(attracts base). Make it a woman(get women's vote, disaffected PUMAs and stupid men who think that's all you need to do to get women's vote).
Make it an NRA and Anti-choice woman (attracts base). Someone the Left will find incredibly unqualified (attracts sympathy vote because Left is attacking the little woman with facts).

Palin is merely the vehicle.

Our focus and attack is on her.
She is the vehicle McCain/Rove is using to gain the White House. Then after a respectable amount of time after the swearing in (unless it could legally be done sooner...(­remember, republicans control the courts)...
...After a month or so, there will be a quite unexpected emergency i.e. the baby needs surgery, more time with it's Mother?, treatment, etc. Palin needs to resign to be with her ailing baby, family, moose.....
McCain picks, oh let's just say Romney, as his V.P. choice. Of course, Congress asquieses (sp?) because that is what they have done for the last 8 years. And in comes Romney.

Vice-President Romney.
Without having to take part in a single debate.
Without having a single peep come out of his mouth.
Without a single vote.

[clsmithj]

Doesn't matter. The Obama campaign is just ignoring her completely.

She's an empty dress. Give her no attention she wont gain any. Mondale/Ferraro Republican ticket, haha.

[boing007]

marijam

It is a trap. Every time you attack her on experience, people will be reminded that she is only running in the number two spot, unlike B.O. who is running in the number one spot. Actually, Palin has more experience than does B.O. since she has 12 years of public service experience, two of which is as an executive, which is two more than B.O. has in being an executive over anything.

Yup! Mayor in a town of 6,000, now 20 million dollars in debt..

[LeeCalif]

Excuse me. What is the twelve years of public service experience you refer to and are you counting P.T.A. as part of this twelve years?
And you seem to be discounting Obama's legal public service? Is that correct?

[23000Days]

Lee:Read the post again. it was a quote from marijam with the last line as the comment.

[Chillinout]

OBAMA`S WORK EXPERIENCE, AND KNOWLEDGE:



- In the US Senate, Barack Obama has served on the FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE, HOMELAND SECURITY COMMITTEE, VETERANS AFFAIRS COMMITTEE, HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOUR & PENSION COMMITTEE.

- Before getting to the US Senate Obama served 11 years in the Illinois State Senate.

- Barack Obama is a graduate TOP of his class at Harvard Law School. Barack Obama also has a degree in Political science specializing in International Relations.

- Barack Obama worked in Chicago, Illinois as a community organizer, Obama, as the director of the Developing Communities Project in Chicago, helped set up a job training program, a college preparatory tutoring program, and a tenants' rights organization in Altgeld Gardens.

- Barack Obama also worked as a consultant and instructor for a community organizing institute.­
Barack Obama worked as a Civil Rights lawyer for 9 years.
- 
- Barack Obama was also a University of Chicago Constutitional Law Professor for 12 years.

- - In the U.S Senate Obama has served on the FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE, HOMELAND SECURITY COMMITTEE, VETERANS AFFAIRS COMMITTEE, HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOUR & PENSION COMMITTEE.­

- -- In the US Senate Obama has written 890 pieces of legislation, and co-sponsored 1096 pieces of legislation.

Palin’s resume:

1984 - Miss Wasilla
1984 - Miss Alaska pageant runner up
Bachelor's Degree in Journalism from University of Idaho
1992 through 1996 - City Council, Wasilla, Alaska
1996 - 2002 - Mayor, Wasilla, Alaska (Population 5,470)
2002 - Unsucessful bid for Lieutenant Governor of Alaska
2006

[mapleman]

huh?