The Palin Trap
On Friday, following McCain's announcement that Sarah Palin was his choice for running mate, like way too many others I allowed myself to indulge in the fantasy that this was the stupidest decision of a GOP presidential candidate since Dan Quayle was tapped for the role. Now that my post-DNC sense of invincibility has worn off, however, so has my triumphalism. I woke up yesterday morning with a much different sense of the Sarah Palin choice. I think it's a trap.
The McCain campaign knew exactly how both Democrats and the traditional media would respond to the Palin announcement, because it was entirely predictable. Choosing someone this plainly unqualified wasn't a mistake, and it wasn't even a gamble. It was a trade-off.
My suspicion is that the McCain campaign doesn't really care that Palin undermines McCain's case for experience, because they're not planning to use that argument anymore. They've decided that the experience argument is ineffective against Obama's change message, and they're more or less giving it up. Moreover, they know how to respond to attacks on Palin's total lack of qualification for the office, and are in fact inviting those attacks as a way to build sympathy with working class independent voters. That's where Palin's value lies.
Instead of continuing on the experience theme, McCain is front-loading his "Country First" message, and his campaign is taking the competition for working class voters on economic issues much more seriously than they were a few months ago. McCain has finally figured out that this is not going to be a national security election, and that Iraq is a distant second to the recession as the central issue in 2008. So it doesn't matter that Palin has no foreign policy experience. That's not what they need her for - they need her for the debate over the economy.
Of course, Palin is useless for any actual debate on the subject that might require policy expertise and persuasive argumentation. In that, she's similar to McCain, who is not identified as a Senator with any special knowledge on economic issues, and has been exposed as an out of touch multimillionaire. For all these reasons, and with GOP-style economics completely out of style, the McCain campaign is at a major disadvantage in any wonky policy debate on fixing the economy. Knowing this, and knowing that the election is going to be won or lost on whether their ticket is regarded as the best equipped to meet that challenge, the McCain campaign is doing what the GOP always does when it has to fight for working class voters in a debate that Republicans can't win on its merits: they are reverting to symbolic politics, a role for which Palin is tailor-made.
Palin was educated at a not-famous public university, received a bachelor's degree in journalism and became a sportscaster before entering the political arena. She married her high school sweetheart, a commercial fisherman and oil company worker (not an executive, or even a manager). Her political career began at the PTA. She raised four kids while holding down her career, and recently had a fifth. Compared to McCain, Obama and even Biden, her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women. While the McCain campaign whispers to voters in Peoria that Obama is not 'one of us,' with Palin they will be able to present a face and a story that is reassuringly familiar - much more so than the top of the ticket.
The McCain campaign is going to trot Palin out whenever they need to make the case that they feel America's pain. They're going to contrast her story to Obama's, and even to Biden's (not the part about being a scrappy kid from Scranton, but the part about being in the Senate for a million years). They're going to have her stick relentlessly to her personal biography, and avoid at all costs any discussion of policy. And whenever any Democrat attacks her for being inexperienced, they're going to turn to working class voters and ask why all these Harvard-educated, pointy-headed know-it-alls think that they know better how to help working families than a woman who worked her way through a demanding career while raising five kids, stayed married to her hard-working husband, and was so successful that she became a governor and then a VP nominee. They're going to turn any question about Palin's 'experience,' whether from a Dem or from a journalist, into another elitist attack on working class culture, another example of snooty, brainiac liberals condescending to ordinary Americans. And to boot, a bunch of good old boys picking on Mrs. Mom.
I don't believe that this is a bid for Hillary supporters, I think it's a bid for the same segment of the electorate that almost every tactic from both campaigns has been aimed at: white working class swing voters. I think the inevitable attacks on Palin are part of the purpose of her selection. By turning her into a lightning rod, they will be able to deflect attacks away from McCain toward a far more sympathetic figure, and then use those attacks as evidence in a far more powerful counterattack against typical liberal elitism.
We're best off not taking that bait.
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The attack is simple, make it about McCain's judgment, not Palin. When the pundits ask about her, simply say, "Frankly, I don't know much about her and I look forward to the full vetting process by the national media and voting public. Having said that, I think the contrasts between the 2 VP choices should be noted. (then go on to talk up Biden and while barely mentioning Palin.)"
I'd bet that McCain never dreamed of picking her; it was the Rove-team that chose her and convinced McCain that it was his only chance to win. Too bad it won't work.
Yes. Another instance of "McCain doesn't speak for the McCain campaign". What I'm wondering is -- who are the people pulling the puppet strings?
I'm with you, Ralf, but would take it one step further in that she doesn't reflect McCain's judgement at all. (By all reports, he would have chosen Lieberman as a running mate.) The simple fact of the matter is that McCain caved in to pressure from Rush Limbaugh. McCain has outsourced his judgement. . .to Rush Limbaugh.
I think McCain, responding the pressure from Rove et. al., had a fit of temper and picked her as a FU to the party. I think he knows he's losing and wanted to go out with a bang. and if she's found to be unsuitable (i.e., the investigation of abuse of power) he can lose her and bring in his buddy, Liebersnake. He won't have to sell him to the base at that point because it'll be too late. they won't have any choice but to vote for him, his way, or deal with Obama in the WH.
Great Post!!! Exactly on point - although a bit machiavellian (Sp?). Any ATTACK on Palin will be totally counterproductive, and I think the Obama campaign has already figured this out. The answer to the EXPERIENCE talking point is to point it back at Bush. The following is a link to an interview with GW in April, 2000 by Jim Lehrer on PBS:
http://www
The operative quote was by GW in his horribly halting English:
"I take great comfort - I've been a leader before and I fully recognize - I'm not trying to play like being the governor of Texas is being like the President of the United States -- it's just not the case -- and I know that."
We Dems need to respond with this type of answer - point EVERYTHING back at Bush - there is a WEALTH of material to draw from.
THANK YOU!!!!!!! I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS ON HUFFPO ALL DAY YESTERDAY!!!! IT IS A TRAP!!Stop feeding into it.Let the women be. Trust me people she is going to screw up somewhere along the line. You as a real american and a woman in this great country think that she is qualified to RUN THIS COUNTRY!!! This is the big oils pick and LIMBAUGH"S pick! 84,000 in a stadium,44 million watching on t.v scared the HELL out the repugs. This pick is what it is.Typical republican politis. LEAVE HER ALONE,BARACK AND BIDEN HAVE.Stay focused. Trust me we are the majority.
Obama/Biden 08
She was offered the job on Wednesday, before the stadium speech.
And yet, the next day, crickets..
I think you are way underestimating her.
You are especially underestimating the way she is uniting the party and energizing the base. The Republican Washington elites who are looking down on her have a real rude awakening coming. I believe they are out of touch with mainstream America.
She will most likely mis-step at some point, but how she recovers will be more telling. If she handles herself with grace, dignity and good humor she will survive. If she becomes petulant and whiny, she loses. And I would tend toward the former - it wasn't her that cried during her speech.
As you know from Obama, you can't overlook the power of personality on people.
You don't see it in her because you oppose her ideologically. I don't see it in Obama either, because I oppose him ideologically. But I acknowledge the power of charisma.
I'm not saying any of these things to get into an ideological discussion, because I have good reasons for seeing the world as I do, and I am assuming you do too. And unfortunately it has very little to do with reason and almost everything to do with brain chemistry. We're just wired to see the world in certain ways.
I hope people soon realize that this should be about the presidential candidates and not their running mates. I believe Obama realizes that this race is not about her, but the issues, John McCain, and Bush's failed policies. Taking the highground and continually focusing on McCain, who is running to be president, not Palin, is the most prudent strategy.
Why campaign on "issues" when you can try to win with strategy and themes....
Hey, u should know by now: style wins over substance everytime!! Its the American way!
While I generally appreciate the cautionary tone in this analysis, I still believe that the dems should not relent in their attack. Arianna has it right that the focus needs to remain strongly on the challenges confronting the nation and those on the left should not shy away from calling out the opposition on the very obvious disconnect between what are being touted as Mrs Palin’s great qualities and the nature of these challenges. Democrats should not cede momentum to the Mccain camp with too much second guessing. In the end Mccains biggest miscalculation with this pick is underestimating just how much the electorate - democrats, republicans, and all others alike- are engaged this time around and just how much they are genuinely concerned about the country's future. If he appreciated this he would have realized that i will be very hard for him to and his campaign to manage the potential fallout from any blunder by this woman (who clearly hasnt given much thought to nsome of the big issues that people are concerned about) in front of a national audience. That is democrats must keep the pressure up.
Contrary to what many are saying, the VP choice is very important! The President doesn't even have to die for the V.P. to take over. Suppose McCain has a debilitating stroke...A
excellent, excellent, excellent analysis Leighton! you have opened my eyes. You need to post this on Barack"s site! The campaign will need this advice;
Impressive analysis that's doubtless correct. But with a 72-year-old who's had four bouts with cancer, there's no way that you can get away from the fact that people are going to envision this woman as president. From that perspective, this was a ludicrous choice.
Say what you will about her "blue-collar" appeal, but anyone who finds Palin attractive enough to vote for despite her appalling lack of credentials wasn't going to vote for Obama or Biden anyway.
On the other hand, it does require people who may have been leaning in McCain's direction to think seriously about gambling with America's future by putting her in charge. In that sense, she's a friggin' disaster -- and if Obama can't ensure people realize that, perhaps he doesn't deserve to win the Presidency after all.
My bet is that he can and he will. Unless we have yet another rigged and stolen election, Obama's going to win in a landslide.
You're absolutely right, the Repubs who were making experience their sole argument a week ago, are now aghast that anyone would dare question Palin's experience. Further, Palin is symbolic, it's hard to think of a mother with 5 kids as out of touch, however as Obama said it's not that McCain (and Palin) don't care, they just don't get it. I really do believe Palin cares, but what in her experience gives her the judgment on how best to help working families. Why does she support the failed Bush policies? This is not argument to avoid, but it does need to be broached carefully. What Palin symbolizes and what she actually stands for needs to be contrasted.
On TV this morning some Repuglican/McCain sycophant pointed out that Sarah Palin has more "executive" experience than Obama and Biden combined. Aside from the sheer ludicrous aspect of that statement, this also means that she has more "executive" experience than McCain as well. Maybe the RNC will further roil the waters by announcing at their convention that they are switching Palin to be the presidential candidate and that McCain will be running for veep. If McCain wants to shake it up, that oughtta do it!
I think plenty of "someones" get it...from the moment cooler heads prevailed and Barack Obama reigned in his campaign's sharp initial reaction, it's clear he's made every effort to minimize the focus on, and even attention paid to, McCain's VP pick. Instead, he continued his sharp attention to the attack on McCain himself, including an immediately released ad that so minimized the attention paid to the pick that it even began with the words "Well, he's made his pick..." and then continued on without even mentioning Palin's name.
Obama's campaign is very, very smart. And prepared. We have time and time again not given them credit and have worried needlessly, only to see them dazzle us with execution. I am confident they are on top of this too - I like what I've seen already. If the only ones "buzzing" about this selection are the Republicans, then the impact of this decision wears off very quickly, and the spotlight shifts from the "newness" of it all to Palin herself, where her obvious lack of readiness for this challenge means pitfalls lay around every corner. If she pulls it off, great - we have the battle we expected in November with Pawlenty or Ridge or whoever. But most likely, she blows it all by herself.
Rest assured, the Democrats finally have a competent, and confident, crew at the helm of the ship. Let them do their work, and focus on doing ours - on the ground.
Obama is being rightfully very careful in his statements about Palin.
Palin might be a natural, don't underestimate her.
But if the truth hurts? Too bad.
It is a trap. Every time you attack her on experience, people will be reminded that she is only running in the number two spot, unlike B.O. who is running in the number one spot. Actually, Palin has more experience than does B.O. since she has 12 years of public service experience, two of which is as an executive, which is two more than B.O. has in being an executive over anything.
It hasn't happened in a long time but presidents die, they get impeached. She has to be ready to go on day one. She's running for the top spot too. That dog ain't going to hunt, particularly not when McCain's 72.
I agree with your assessment, but I don't think it will work this time.
Four years ago, we had a weak candidate in Kerry, and the full brunt of Bush's policies hadn't taken effect. Now people are really hurting, and Bush has made the world an even more dangerous place.
I think it's interesting that Bush's approval ratings hover consistantly between 29 and 32 percent. One poll I saw rating the Palin pick was...ta da! 32% favorable!
These are the people who would vote for Micky Mouse if they were told he's a Republican. That magic 20% needed to fill the gap is going to be tough to get with a hockey mom this time, and I'm guessing a lot of these folks are feeling like McCain doesn't take them or their problems very seriously with this pick.
Biden need only attack McCain, not Palin. In any case, how does a woman who is known as a barracuda, and wants to be next in line to be the leader of the free world, expect to be handled with kid gloves? If she can't handle Biden, won't she be seen as being to weak to handle Bin Ladin? This was a big gamble for Mccain, and I think a foolish one.
I think you said it beautifully when you state..."a lot of these folks are feeling like McCain doesn't take them or their problems very seriously with this pick."
It is time for the Democrats to be aggressive, like Obama was in his acceptance speech. The Vice President is normally a part of the National Security Council. And Governor Palin is not qualified to make the judgments necessary. The Democrats need to say that if Governor Palin was first term Governor SAMUEL Palin whose previous experience was as the mayor of a tiny town in the most remote state in the US, then :
a. McCain would not have picked him to carry his bags let alone be on the ticket
b. Democrats and Republicans alike would decry the flimsy resume.
If this is McCain's judgment on weho should be a heart beat away from the White House, then we don't want him anywhere near it.
She gets a pass because she is a woman and the Democrats would be accused of beating up on a woman.
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