The Palin Trap

On Friday, following McCain's announcement that Sarah Palin was his choice for running mate, like way too many others I allowed myself to indulge in the fantasy that this was the stupidest decision of a GOP presidential candidate since Dan Quayle was tapped for the role. Now that my post-DNC sense of invincibility has worn off, however, so has my triumphalism. I woke up yesterday morning with a much different sense of the Sarah Palin choice. I think it's a trap.

The McCain campaign knew exactly how both Democrats and the traditional media would respond to the Palin announcement, because it was entirely predictable. Choosing someone this plainly unqualified wasn't a mistake, and it wasn't even a gamble. It was a trade-off.

My suspicion is that the McCain campaign doesn't really care that Palin undermines McCain's case for experience, because they're not planning to use that argument anymore. They've decided that the experience argument is ineffective against Obama's change message, and they're more or less giving it up. Moreover, they know how to respond to attacks on Palin's total lack of qualification for the office, and are in fact inviting those attacks as a way to build sympathy with working class independent voters. That's where Palin's value lies.

Instead of continuing on the experience theme, McCain is front-loading his "Country First" message, and his campaign is taking the competition for working class voters on economic issues much more seriously than they were a few months ago. McCain has finally figured out that this is not going to be a national security election, and that Iraq is a distant second to the recession as the central issue in 2008. So it doesn't matter that Palin has no foreign policy experience. That's not what they need her for - they need her for the debate over the economy.

Of course, Palin is useless for any actual debate on the subject that might require policy expertise and persuasive argumentation. In that, she's similar to McCain, who is not identified as a Senator with any special knowledge on economic issues, and has been exposed as an out of touch multimillionaire. For all these reasons, and with GOP-style economics completely out of style, the McCain campaign is at a major disadvantage in any wonky policy debate on fixing the economy. Knowing this, and knowing that the election is going to be won or lost on whether their ticket is regarded as the best equipped to meet that challenge, the McCain campaign is doing what the GOP always does when it has to fight for working class voters in a debate that Republicans can't win on its merits: they are reverting to symbolic politics, a role for which Palin is tailor-made.

Palin was educated at a not-famous public university, received a bachelor's degree in journalism and became a sportscaster before entering the political arena. She married her high school sweetheart, a commercial fisherman and oil company worker (not an executive, or even a manager). Her political career began at the PTA. She raised four kids while holding down her career, and recently had a fifth. Compared to McCain, Obama and even Biden, her story is easily the most sympathetic to working class voters, especially white women. While the McCain campaign whispers to voters in Peoria that Obama is not 'one of us,' with Palin they will be able to present a face and a story that is reassuringly familiar - much more so than the top of the ticket.

The McCain campaign is going to trot Palin out whenever they need to make the case that they feel America's pain. They're going to contrast her story to Obama's, and even to Biden's (not the part about being a scrappy kid from Scranton, but the part about being in the Senate for a million years). They're going to have her stick relentlessly to her personal biography, and avoid at all costs any discussion of policy. And whenever any Democrat attacks her for being inexperienced, they're going to turn to working class voters and ask why all these Harvard-educated, pointy-headed know-it-alls think that they know better how to help working families than a woman who worked her way through a demanding career while raising five kids, stayed married to her hard-working husband, and was so successful that she became a governor and then a VP nominee. They're going to turn any question about Palin's 'experience,' whether from a Dem or from a journalist, into another elitist attack on working class culture, another example of snooty, brainiac liberals condescending to ordinary Americans. And to boot, a bunch of good old boys picking on Mrs. Mom.

I don't believe that this is a bid for Hillary supporters, I think it's a bid for the same segment of the electorate that almost every tactic from both campaigns has been aimed at: white working class swing voters. I think the inevitable attacks on Palin are part of the purpose of her selection. By turning her into a lightning rod, they will be able to deflect attacks away from McCain toward a far more sympathetic figure, and then use those attacks as evidence in a far more powerful counterattack against typical liberal elitism.

We're best off not taking that bait.

Follow Leighton Woodhouse on Twitter: www.twitter.com/lwoodhouse

Comments

[HRG]

I agree wholeheartedly. The Republicans will use her to try to get elected and then leave the working class in the dust as the wealthy stay at the top. So sad to think that working class voters fall for this. They will be so much worse off if, God Forbid, the McC/Pal ticket wins.

[jeanrenoir]

Let's face it, the working class in America are incredible chumps. They're just plain stupid. There's no other word for it. Bill Maher's right. Michael Moore should make a satirical documnetary blasting the working class for its stupidity in politics. THEY are the problem, even more than their Republican manipulators. They used to not be so dumb, maybe because of union solidarity and more intelligent union leaders telling them how to vote. But now, they are putty in the hands of TV advertisers, and the guys who design campaigns are nothing but ad men. The working class was totally screwed under Reagan, and they worshipped him. What idiots! Bush destroyed their economy even more, gave them $4 gas because of his huge deficits and how they wiped out the dollar, and for dessert, Bush killed their sons and daughters in Iraq for nothing, for nothing, except Big Oil and Israel. And now these morons will vote for more of the same because of McCain in Hanoi and Miss Congeniality by his side. You could call it tragic, but that would be letting these people off the hook too easy. They need to be condemned. They are destroying our country.

[ILibertine]

Mr. Woodhouse: I congratulate you upon a plausible explanation for this otherwise bewildering pick. Unless some as yet undisclosed revelation of Ms. Palin's managerial skills at a world-class level would contribute substance to her choice as running mate, I fear that lack of regulation and political responsibility (to a nation, not a party) have led businesses and parties to come out of the closet in blatant displays of the rape of the consumer and the outright game of politics without even pretending to regard the nation's welfare and security in the process. What other perspective can be assigned to the Republican party with such a pick, when there is reasonable likelihood that McCain's VP would assume the highest office during his term, and America would be left with a level of leadership placing its immediate safety and security at stake? Indeed, it would be "Hurricane Katrina" at the level of the entire United States of America.
I question, however, whether the white, working class demographic is what it used to be, i.e. whether a newer generation of voter has not supplanted its importance and may not yet be quantitatively visible until the election; that might ultimately discredit such logic as you suggest.
My wife, who has been on the fence regarding Obama, may have been persuaded by McCain's choice to board the Wake Up train. Her comment regarding McCain:
As the locals in my dad's neck of the woods would say:
"He done told on his-self"

[LadyCPA]

What does this say about the Republicans' "Family Values" -- an issue they delight in ramming down everyone's throat. Here's a woman with five children at home, including a two-year-old and a Special Needs child. Why is she not putting her family first, instead of pushing her family aside to run for national office? What does her acceptance of McCain's offer say about HER judgement when she doesn't even know what the VP does on a day-to-day basis?? She may be an up-and-comer, but she clearly needs a LOT more experience. My town is 40,000 -- 7 or 8 times larger than Palin's. Our city council members are part-timers. I've spoken to several who have served a full two terms (8 years). None of them believe that they are qualified to be VP of the US. McCain clearly is NOT putting America First. He's clearly putting Politics First to try to get elected by pandering to women. It won't work.

[Sunny]

You're right. Her 4 year city council stint was a part-time postion - they met twice a month. In addition her 6 year stint as mayor was also a part-time position. That's her experience plus an 11 month stint as the chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in 2002 - a 6 year position that she quit after attacking commissioner Randy Ruedrich, who was also the state Republican Party chairman for doing GOP work on state time. He resigned from the Commission and 2 months later she resigned since the state law required her to be quiet about it. However she had done the same thing when she was Mayor - using city time and resources for her campaign for lieutenant governor in 2002.

Then she stayed out of politics for two years and started a marketing and consulting company named Rogue Cou, “a classy way of saying redneck,” Palin told the Anchorage Daily News in a June 2005 interview.

[moonrider 73]

what i think is funny about republicans is McCain wasn't good enough for them in 2000 although he was a maverick now that he is a clone of bush he's perfect because we all know he doesn't live up to Maverick now, if republicans have found the last 8 years that good for them my thought of voting for who I think is the best canidate for the country is wrong. but also i have found it's harder here in texas to find as many people admit they voted for bush today as they did in 2004 and even cuss him but when asked our you going to vote for mccain which looks like 4 more years of the same the answer is yes.

[kelfeind]

Forget about it, Palin is a BABE! and that is just what America needs right now. Of course she looks like Elaine on Seinfeld, McCain's campaign is a campaign about "nothing!" and she fits perfectly. This campaign is going to come down to two groups of people. Serious citizens who still believe that government means something and can be a force for good in the world. People who know the issues and care about the future. And then everyone else. Obama may still win but from my seat, it's a toss up!

[McChimp]

Nope, Obama will win, we don't elect hockey moms here in the continental 48.

[indypete]

I sincerely hope you're right but 8 years ago I was astounded that the obviously vacuum-headed Boosh and the Landlord-S­pecialisin­g-In-Evict­ing-Widows­-And-Orpha­ns VP got in (even though the election was fixed) and 4 years ago my ghast was completely and utterly flabbered when the public voted for Dr Evil and his pet Connecticut/Texan poodle in sufficient numbers for the bent election system to call "plausible deniability" on the result and re-install them. If McCain/McPretty win this one, I'll be devastated but not in the least surprised. The longer you're in power, the more power you have, the easier the elections are to fix.

[Beka13]

Have you seen the movie idiocracy? You would love it Fox news is the only news channel left.

[KimIslesboro]

Just look at the latest Zogby poll if you want to know what the electorate in this country responds to:

McCain/Palin 47%
Obama/Biden 45%

Apparently the people who re-elected W in 2004 still live here AND outnumber the thinking people.

[nutty4tahoe]

Palin is Harriet Miers in a Tina Fey costume.

[mesmerize]

For people to sit around and say Senator Obama is inexperienced, he sure has knocked people off of their message. Now McCain is going around hollering about changing the way things are done in Washington. I guess it takes a novice to teach those with all this experience. You can always get people to believe you have experience until it has to be translated to your tongue. This is when the truth shows up.

[cole699]

this is crazy this was a pick to energize the conservative base, thats it thats all.If Mccain was interested in getting regan democrats as much as this article says he would have picked somebody like tom ridge or joe lieberman,but he didnt because he knew it would have been a disaster.T­his women wasnt even on the map until they found out that joe lieberman wasnt going to go over so well,she wasnt even vetted properly,and her and mccain only talked in person for about a couple of hours face to face before he offered her the job,so while she has the conservative base blushing over them selves theres no telling what the true story behind this lady really is.

[nikolena]

I think you're dead on.

Our republican friends see this as a good pick. The "experience" argument was never a strong one anyway, but they used it because it was the only plausible argument they could make.

Some of them are a bit nervous about Palin's inexperience, but they rationalize it by saying that being a former mayor and a govenor means she has "executive" experience which means that she's more experienced than Obama (although I'll bet they wouldn’t buy it if Obama had the same resume).

And they are looking forward to the VP debates. They know that Palin being a "hockey mom" with 5 kids ties the Democrats hands, because the moment Biden or the “liberal” media says something that has a whiff sexism, they’ll say "Look at how the sexist, elitist Dems are treating this poor mom with the Down Syndrome baby". If Palin unloads on Biden she'll be seen as a "tough, little firecracker.

The thing that will bring Palin down is if she screws up or collapses under her own inexperience, and they won’t give her many chances to screw up. They'll use for photo ops and friendly ground speeches, and hope that Biden does their job for them in the VP debate. If the Dems attack her, it has to be indirect and done in a way that doesn't seem sexist and elitist.

Hopefully since Obama has already navigated the gender and race minefield in the primaries he won’t fall into this trap.

[tuttlemsm]

"although I'll bet they wouldn"t buy it if Obama had the same resume"

If Obama had the same resume as Palin, they would run an attack ad about that every single day until November.

And it would be such a great way for people to rationalize their real motives. "What, me racist? Why, no, I just don't think he has the experience­."

Fortunately, Obama has had twelve years at the state and federal level. Palin's resume is nowhere near Obama's.

[Docbcs]

Sorry...ne­ither Obama nor the Democratic Party has negotiated the issue of gender. They let outrageous media sexism go down during the primaries without a single comment, and that leaves them vulnerable to the attraction of an unqualified candidate like Palin. The Democrats let 80 million voters know that they don't count, and, for the part of the 80 million that were women, that it doesn't matter if they're publicly demeaned and insulted. That touches into a very deep place. I don't want to see McCain president, not Palin VP, but I hope that she, at least, will be judged on her experience (or lack thereof), and her values, rather than on her gender.

[applebutter]

Republicans want to talk about the issues? Since when?

Let's talk about the economy, then. Let's talk about issues, as Obama continues to do.

What is McCain going to do about the economony? Reagan/Bushonomics x2.

Obama's plan restores Clintonian economics, strengthening the middle class and paying off debt.

For 95% of the country it's Obama, hands down.

[Sabres452000]

RE: Palin,

If you care about the environment, care about womens rights to decide for themselves about their OWN bodies....­.THEN you must be concerned about Palin.....­...They dont call her the Barracuda for nothing.

If your a sportsmen, a hiker, naturist, care about clean water, clean air, renewable energy....­Palin is your worst nightmare. She may win credits among the pro-gunners and anti-abortion zealots...­.but she will systematically gut the endangered species act....wor­k to foul our water and air by weakening the clean air act and the clean water act to benefit industry but she will make sure she gets any animal that is threatened by development or other.....­she has faught long and hard to start the aerial gunning of wolves....­by running them to exhaustion­...then shooting them at point blank range...WH­Y? because she is in the pocket of the Sahara club...IS THIS WHAT WE WANT IN AMERICA????? THIS IS SICKENING.­...

She will also work very hard to make sure the anti-abortion whackos...­.get roe v wade overturned­.........t­hat means if your raped by a stranger/U­ncle...it will be ILLEGAL for you to get that child aborted...

She is also being investigated in alaska...f­or abuse of power.....­.SO I ASK ..If she will abuse her power as Gov of Alaska....­.doesnt it also seem to imply she could abuse her power as VP too???....

I DONT KNOW ABOUT YOU.....th­e readers of my post.....b­ut be afraid....­.very afraid....­...

[Shellly]

I sure hope that Sen. Obama has directed members of his team and surrogates that speak on his behalf to not attack Gov. Palin. They should continue the attacks on Sen. McCain. This was not the person they had in mind, and was not the person who the offered the VP spot to primarily. This was clearly a pick in response to Sen. Obama's very flawless successful campaign and convention thus far.

[chitown8]

I agree just ignore her. I say change the subject. Talk about how Mccain was aganist women issues and bills he was aganist for the middle class. That what they must focus on.

[MYQUEEN7]

The writer of this post is spot on. Obama shares the same strategy. Obama and Joe Biden have NOT mentioned Palin on the road. They are keeping the focus squarely on the ineptness of Bush and poor and dangerous judgement of McCain, and so should we.
Don't take the bait! Stay focused! We can do this and we will!

OBAMA/BIDEN

[Berliner2]

my reading exactly. The Dems should just ignore her.

[tuttlemsm]

"my reading exactly. The Dems should just ignore her."

Like they ignored swift-boating? Like they ignored Willie Horton?

If you give her a free pass, people will assume that it must mean that this good-looking, smart-looking woman must be capable and experienced enough to be vice-president after all.

There is a difference between engagement and attack. The issue itself of her inexperience and her far-right views should be engaged.

Also, more importantly, it should be noted what the pick says about McCain's judgment.

[skepticNYC]

Mr. Woodhouse, I agree with all of the points outlined in your argument regarding Palin's symbolic role in this contest. I think the Obama campaign can clearly see the red herring that the McCain camp tossed in the water with the Palin pick, and they will continue to be measured and thorough in their response through rhetoric, imagery and argument. I think its a given, all around, that you can acknowledge Palin's lack of experience and credibility, but the focus should continue to be on McCain and his connection to the failed policies that have help in creating the dire economic situations that many white middle/working class people are mired in. The more that McCain is exposed as a figurehead in the economic arena, unsafe for America in national security and lost in the arena of energy policy - the disconnect will make sense to the target demographic and echoe with resonance with the dems' base. And as Biden gets that chance to campaign flanked with the dem powerhouses of the Clintons, Kerry, Gore, and the host of prominent players who will get face time on media, as the ground teams (now pumped after a really successful convention) hit the streets and aves in those targeted states, Obama is shifting to the endgame of this campaign at the right time.

[Byanymeans]

Does the term TROPHY WIFE sound familiar ? How do you think the Kay Bailey Hutchinsons, the Christy Todd Whitmans, the Condolessa Rices of the GOP feel today?
THEY carried the GOP's water on issues they might not have agreed on to feminize the party's anti-female agenda [equal pay for women, anyone?] Now, THEY get shoved out the door so a younger, attractive, newcomer can take THEIR spot at the top of the GOP's power structure.
These loyalists, like first wives, are too old, too knowledgeable about the party's shortcomings and inner workings to be bumfuzzeled into continuing to 'drink the Kool Aid' without complaint.
So, bring in some political 'eye candy'. A naive, smiling face who won't mind being lusted after by the 'good old boy evangilists' [only in their hearts of course]. Someone who will be easily led on issues of real importance without complaint. Thus, 'Trophy Wife' Palin. A gift for the intolerant, foul smelling supporters of James Dobson, Pat Robertson, et al .
Least you think I'm overstating the issue, on Day2 of Mrs. Trophy Wife's speechifying, a crowd of her right wing nuts booed the name of Hilary Clinton so loudly they drowned out Mrs. TW!!
THAT'S the type of welcome all you short sighted PUMAs can look forward to receiving as you rush to join the McCain camp in your fit of adolescent pique? Good Luck and Good Hunting!

[tuttlemsm]

This is spot-on, Byanymeans. Moreover, McCain by all accounts never got along with KBH. Remember, it's not about what's good for the country. It's not about electing an accomplished woman to high office. It's about what John McCain personally likes.