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Leon T. Hadar

Leon T. Hadar

Posted: July 8, 2010 01:53 PM

Welcome to the Post-Unipolar World: Great for the U.S. and for the Rest

What's Your Reaction:

The traditionally pro-Western Georgia has been strengthening its ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran, according to a recent report in Newsweek. The author of the article subtitled, "Washington's new friendship with Moscow has one very clear casualty: Georgia," is blaming the efforts by the Obama administration to "reset" the relationship with Moscow for what the magazine describes as the "Tbilisi-Tehran love-in."

So how did that happen? President Barack Obama has discarded his predecessor's campaign to promote pro-Western regimes in the former Soviet Union and to extend NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine as part of a strategy to improve cooperation with Russia over nuclear cooperation, Iran sanctions, and missile defense, culminating in the June 24 "hamburger summit" in Virginia between Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev.

But the U.S. detente with Moscow has made Georgia and its president, Mikheil Saakashvili, who had gone to war with the Russians in the summer of 2008 -- a military confrontation that resulted in Russian occupation of Georgia's two breakaway republics, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. So it is not surprising, concludes Newsweek, that Tbilisi "is clearly hedging its bets by making new friends in the region," including Iran and another rising Middle Eastern power, Turkey, whose own policies towards Tehran have been raising some eyebrows in Washington.

What the magazine seems to be implying is that if Washington would have continued the policies of President George W. Bush -- which were enthusiastically backed by Republican presidential candidate John ("Today, we're all Georgians") McCain and his neoconservative advisors, Georgia would have remained exclusively committed to its alliance with Washington while refraining from flirting with Tehran and Ankara.

In fact, notwithstanding McCain's neo-Cold War rhetoric, the U.S. government has lacked either the power or the will to use military power to help Georgia recover Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a geo-strategic reality recognized even by President Bush, who ended-up putting the efforts to bring Georgia (and Ukraine) into NATO on hold.

Overextended militarily in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, and trying to re-adjust to the post-financial-meltdown erosion in its global economic power, the American people and their representatives are not in a mood to engage in a diplomatic and military confrontation with Russia over its territorial dispute with Georgia, an issue that has no major effect on core U.S. national interests.

Moreover, in the context of the evolving international system under which America is gradually losing its post-Cold War unipolar status, trying to reset U.S. relationship with Russia as part of an overall policy to improve ties with other rising global players, like China, India, Brazil and Turkey makes a lot of sense.

This is a cost-effective strategy that could help Washington win support from Russia for policies that actually strengthen U.S. national security and economic interests. At the same time, the fact that Georgia is also improving its ties with Iran and Turkey -- and Russia -- should not be considered a "loss" for Washington. By establishing close economic ties with Iran and Turkey, Georgia is helping facilitate economic cooperation in the region that could lead to diplomatic collaboration and provide for more stability in the Caucasus and the Middle East.

Why should Washington be opposed to such a process that brings more economic prosperity and secure a regional stable balance of power? Georgia may or may not regain control of its lost territories, not unlike, say, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Serbia, etc., who seemed to have been able to cope with their territorial contraction. But the U.S. does not have the strategic interest or the moral obligation to change the new status quo, or for that matter, to invite Georgia to join NATO -- remind me again why that organization still exists? -- and commit American military power to provide that country with what would amount to disincentives for improving its relations with its close neighbors.

In a way, the collapse of the American-controlled unipolar system -- and before that, the end of the bipolar system of the Cold War -- should help us recognize that international relations have ceased to be a zero-sum-game under which gains of other global powers become by definition a loss for America, and vice versa. It was inevitable that former members of the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc like Ukraine, Poland, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia will try to stabilize their diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, while at the same time deterring powerful Russia by expanding cooperation with other players: Poland with Ukraine with Germany; Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia with Turkey and Iran, and all of these countries with the U.S and the European Union (EU).

Similarly, Washington should welcome -- not discourage -- the growing diplomatic and economic role that Turkey is playing in the Middle East, which could help bring stability to Iraq (and allow for American military to start withdrawing from there), moderate the policies of Iran (and prevent a military conflict with the U.S.), encourage negotiations between Israel and Syria, and lead eventually to the creation of a more stable Middle East where Turkey, Iran, the Arabs states and Israel will be more secure and prosperous.

It is not surprising those representatives of economic and bureaucratic interests in Washington, and some of America's client states that draw benefits from American interventionist policy, operate under the axiom that the U.S. should always be prepared to "do something" to "resolve" this or that conflict, here, there, and everywhere. That kind of never-ending American interventionism only discourages regional powers, counting on Washington to come to their aid, from actually taking steps to resolve those conflicts that end-up drawing-in other regional and global players, ensuring that America will never leave Japan and Korea (to help contain China), Iraq (to deter Iran), Afghanistan (to deal with Pakistan). And that is exactly what the pro-interventionists in Washington want when they suggested that America is the "indispensable power."

In any case, the notion that American hegemony is a precondition for global peace and security and that Washington needs therefore to extend its military commitments in Europe, the Middle East, Caucus, East Asia and elsewhere is not very practical -- America does not have the resources in order to play that ambitious role -- and is not very helpful, considering the most recent U.S. experience in the Middle East. The U.S. should not retreat from the world. But by embracing a policy of "constructive disengagement" from some parts of the world, America could help itself and the rest of the world.

 
 
 

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01:23 AM on 07/09/2010
The United States, even at its moments of greatest strength, has never had the appetite for a direct "hot war" confrontation with Russian forces. And make no mistake, retaking the Russian-occupied Georgian republics either at the moment of seizure in 2008 or soon after would have been just such a confrontation. The US wouldn't have pursued it in the best of times, and it certainly won't while it's fighting two other wars and dragging itself out of a recession. An American/Russian conflict has nothing to do with talking points like "poles" and everything to do with geopolitics, and considerations such as the nations' respective nuclear arsenals.

I also don't see the (increasingly assumed) "collapse of the unipolar system" that the author refers to. A multipolar world would, by definition, feature multiple powers all on an equal playing field in terms of economic, political, military, and cultural power. No one is close to America's equal at this stage; not with Brazil and India barely emerging yet, with Russia having not much more than a basic commodities-exporting economy and a huge demographic crisis, and with China fabricating GDP data and facing numerous demographic and structural challenges.

Finally, It's fallacious to appraise the value of the alleged current multipolar world when: 1) There hasn't yet been a post-Soviet multipolar order; 2) the Soviet/American multipolar order resulted in years of dangerous brinkmanship and ignited ruinous wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam. "Multipolarism" is being simply being idolized.
08:00 PM on 07/08/2010
Another great article by Leon Hadar. Unfortunately the Obama administration has locked itself between a rock and hard place and it doesn't look like it can divorce itself from the confrontational course it is on.
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Dec2086Lover
After all you are my wonderwall.
06:52 PM on 07/08/2010
Great article,some minor disagreements I would say.But really it was good.Let's face it,Georgie would always look to foster relations with countries in the region,as would other nations.This notion that a country will only befriend one country,and not any other is nonsense!No country would lay their eggs in one basket,you have to have different sources of friends,and econmic and cultural partners.I know America lost credibility by not coming to Georgia's defense,but the U.S had no resources too,and would not stomach having to fight with a huge power like Russia,which could easily give America a bloody nose.Remember America,like all cowards and bullies,only messes around with weak nations.
Secondly,in 2004 when he had just come to power,Mikhail Saakahsvili visited Iran for four days.So even in their height of the Bush administration,and four years before the war with Russia,and when talk of joining NATO were in full swing,Georgia cultivated ties with Iran.Georgia's ties with Turkey have also been very strong,evidenced by the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline,which involves Azerbaijan,Georgia,and Turkey.
So the points made here are good,I can't imagine why NATO still exists today in 2010,when it should have disbanded 1990-1991,two decades ago!Really no need for that.I hope Georgia retains it's territorial integrety in the near future.Russia is hypocritical in that supports separatists in Georgia,while it has such problems in Chechnya,Ingushetia,Tatarstan,and other places.Russia should realize that the Soviet Union and Russian Empire are long gone,it will never come back.
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10:04 PM on 07/08/2010
On Nato being obsolete since 1990-91: Funny how the very first military operation of Nato took place after the dissolution of Soviet Union (Balkan invasion 1994). There have been several since.
05:41 PM on 07/08/2010
You mean the Caucasus, not the Caucus, right?
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
04:59 PM on 07/08/2010
Just a quibble, but do you refer to Peurto Rico as being 'occupied by the US'?

Or Poland as being occupied by the US or NATO?

Or Georgia as a 'breakaway republic of Russia'?

The use of language to minimize the fact that South Ossetia preferred to be part of Russia (and would likely have chosen to stay in the same political group as North Ossetia) to being ruled by Tbilisi implies a Russian aggression against Georgia and South Ossetia.
09:53 AM on 07/09/2010
Only a certain group in South Ossetia prefers to be part of Russia, even if the entire population wanted to join Russia it still does not legitimize Russia's attack. And Georgia is not a breakaway republic of Russia, that area had been Georgia since the beginning of time; it was Georgia when they were under Turkish rule (Ottoman Empire) and it was the state of of Georgia under the Soviet rule. There had been more than 10 countries formed after USSR collapsed and none of them are Russians defying their roots.

There is no magical use of language here that bends the truth.
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Richard Pearce
Atheistic-agnostic Canadian polymath
12:10 PM on 07/09/2010
Except, of course, Ossetia was also Ossetia, and not Georgia, and it was only under the Soviets that Ossetia was split in two, and part of it put in the Georgian administrative region.

As for your contention that it was Russia who attacked, here is what the EU investigation found:

"In the mission's view, it was Georgia which triggered off the war when it attacked Tskhinvali (in South Ossetia) with heavy artillery on the night of 7 to 8 August, 2008,"

"None of the explanations given by the Georgian authorities in order to provide some form of legal justification for the attack lend it a valid explanation," said the team head, Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavina.

"In particular, there was no massive Russian military invasion under way, which had to be stopped by Georgian military forces shelling Tskhinvali," she added in a statement to coincide with a report of some 1,000 pages.

http://www.ceiig.ch/

Seems you are using language to more than bend the truth