Could Edwards Beat McCain? The Polls Won't Tell Us

Yesterday's Zogby poll has Edwards within Iowa-like striking distance of Hillary for second place in today's South Carolina primary. "The real movement here is by John Edwards, who is the only one who continues to gain ground in our three-day tracking poll," writes John Zogby, attributing most of the gains to previously undecided African American voters.

White dude rising? We'll soon find out. But the mainstream media, long determined to ignoreEdwards and keep this a feisty, feuding two-person race http://www.johnedwards.com/media/video/where-is-john/ , is not letting him show his stuff where it currently counts--against McCain.

Thursday night, Tim Russert was oohing over how close a McCain-Obama or McCain-Hillary race would be: the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal head-to-head match-up poll shows McCain beating Hillary by two points and tying with Obama; Obama and Hillary each clobbered Romney, Giuliani, and Huckabee. When I saw that Edwards wasn't part of the six-pol poll, my jaded jaw almost dropped.

Though I shouldn't have been surprised. CNN also disappeared the former North Carolina senator from its most recent (mid-January) head-to-head poll--even though Edwards was the only Dem to beat McCain in its previous (mid-December) match-up. At the time, CNN polling director Keating Holland wrote, "Edwards is the only Democrat who beats all four Republicans, and McCain is the only Republican who beats any of the three Democrats. Some might argue this shows that they are the most electable candidates in their respective parties."

Why wouldn't CNN include its own previous chart-topper? Don't know. CNN wouldn't return my calls. Granted, a lot has changed in the last month, and other polls have also bumped Edwards from their January match-ups. Granted, too, Edwards is doing poorly in national polls. But so far, Edwards (unlike the shamefully treated Paul and Kucinich) is still deemed debate-worthy. Shouldn't Democrats as well as Republicans have access to information on how all their candidates stand in hypothetical general election contests?

Eviction from "electability" polls is bad enough, but CNN's Bill Schneider and even the esteemed Factcheck.org have called Edwards "misleading" for citing, at the CNN debate last Saturday, his winning performance in the December CNN poll. "It's literally true [that Edwards was the one Democrat who beat McCain in the last CNN poll that included him], but still misleading," Factcheck writes, because, "there is a MORE recent CNN poll, one that shows either Clinton or Obama beating McCain and doesn't include Edwards."

Talk about Chinese finger puzzles, self-fulfilling prophesies, chicken and eggs.

No matter. MSM has moved on. Edwards's new designation is "kingmaker." On Friday, the Wall Street Journal, NBC's polling partner, tsked-tsked that "Mr. Edwards has all but dropped from sight. Generally ignored by the national press and with a campaign bankroll a fraction the size of his rivals," the best Edwards can hope for is to swing his accumulated delegates toward Obama's or Hillary's nomination.

That's no doubt true. By February 6, Democrats are likely to be stuck with the two weakest candidates. As Marc Cooper wrote here, once Hillary locks up the nomination, the rumors about Bill will come fully unzipped, diminishing her chances in November. Meanwhile, Obama's numbers among whites are dropping, largely because of Billary's attacks, whether you consider them to be coded racist appeals or merely color-blind Rove-ian hit jobs.

If I didn't know better, I'd say that by cutting off the race's possibly strongest Democrat--first from media coverage and now from polls--the corporate media could be misleading us toward another Republican administration.

Comments

[GGinSC]

Thank you, Leslie Savan. If John Edwards isn't the Democratic nominee, I hope he will head up the FCC or have another high-level post to lead in "de-consolidation" of the media. The MSM has indeed done the citizenry a disservice by excluding John Edwards--the candidate with the most substantive plans and the ever-consistent message. Anything can happen, and I'm glad he's staying in the race.

Urging everyone who still has an opportunity to vote to take a good look, or a second look, at Edwards and let the media know they aren't going to control this election!

[EngineerBill]

What is even worse than not putting Edwards in match up polls is this fact. No over-the-air Network television broadcast of any presidential debates before tsunami tuesday. I guess ABC NBC and CBS have too many new series episodes to air to allow for a debate or they think airing American Gladiators is more important than letting American Citizens see who will lead the most powerful country in the world. But hey, if they did air the debate they couldn't edit Edwards out of the debate snipets in the network news broadcast the next night.

[gemstone1000]

It is infuriating and frustrating that John Edwards doesn't get any coverage. He's the best qualified, he's for the working class, he's against the war. What is it that people want? More of the same repugnicans? I don't get it.

[Tillie2]

Never mind heading us towards a GOP victory, MSM is only part of a conspiracy to up their profits. Does anyone seriously think they have anything but profits on their minds? Edwards is spending far less on campaign ads, so the media has no interest in covering his campaign. Jim Lehrer talked about this last Friday.

Edwards, as most people do not realize, has a campaign spending cap because he has chosen to run with individual contributions and matching government funds. THIS is why he can say that only he accepts no PAC money, etc., and no one contradicts him. No other candidate has chosen this path.

[KarenZipdrive]

I absolutely love John Edwards. He'd make a sensational president.
However, his loss in his own state does not bode well for his chances.
The pollsters can pull any results they want out of their asses and they can't change the fact that a man losing in his home state is just not a harbinger of long-term success.
It's a pity but it's the truth.

[laurenc]

Leslie, thank God for your common sense post.
Now tell us exactly what we can do about this outrageous behavior of the Republican media,
leaving out data about one of the highest-polling Democratic candidates!

I mean it: what can we do??

[Travellini]

If the press would stop counting the poll beans and get to the job of INVESTIGATING the candidates' positions on the issues, the candidates could get back to discussing their plans for our country. These endless half-time commentaries do NOTHING but waste the public's time, and make it difficult to find substantive information on policy stances of the candidates.

For instance, what are their respective positions on education? We need information, and not just he-said, she-said, but facts on the sub-plots and objective investigating.

I beg you, media, put down your pick-up-sticks, stop the madness of counting beans that won't matter in five minutes, and remember your responsibility to the citizenry of this wounded country!

[Astroboy]

DONATE! DONATE! DONATE!
We have to set up something like Howard Dean did on the internet to push for Edwards and RAISE MONEY!
As Ewards campaign is flooded with Netroots money, it will encourge others, contradict the MSM's propaganda, bring new life to Edwards viability, and show those who believe or feel he is "unelectable" that Edwards is indeed ELECTABLE!
How could the corporate MSM ingnore Edwards THEN?!

[websmith]

Having to choose between Edwards and Paul somehow seems safe.

It's becoming very clear that you don't want to pick one of the candidates currently being supported by the mainstream media and their investment banker owners.

[JoAnnCr]

Rasmussen still includes Edwards. Notice how great his margin of win over McCain is. O & C also beat him but by much less margin than Edwards.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/favorables/election_2008_democratic_candidates_running_in_2008_presidential_election

[tysgram]

Thanks Leslie, what a great article about the state of things in the media. MSNBC has become Obamaland with all of the reporters except for Keith Olbermann gushing like a schoolgirl over Obama. Even with the report of Rezko being arrested today, the top story was Sen Kennedy endorses Obama. John Edwards is the only candidate that stands for middle class America and wants total coverage of healthcare. He is the one standing with the unions when they demand better work conditions. He is also the only one who takes no lobbyists money, that way they can't expect favors when he gets in the White House. Thanks again for speaking for John.

[LaraineNewman]

Exactly. I agree 100%. I'm dismayed at my own party for not seeing that Edwards is really the only candidate that can beat any Republican. But clearly, as I've said before, the Conservative Republican juggernaut is diabolical. Since most of the media and press is owned by conservatives, I have to marvel at the job they've done. Frightening and appalling as it may be.

[PauCK]

Isn't John Zogby the one who, on Jon Stewart's show pretty much admitted that his polls were wrong? (New Hampshire). I am pretty much convinced that Polls have become just another business geared to profit from politics with the unique position of not having to produce usable results. Kinda like Bush.

[jr9657]

Thanks Leslie for a great article! It's great to know that us Edwards supporters have someone who will speak for us in the media. What you write of is exactly what we have fought this entire campaign, and I do believe there is a whole lot of truth in your last statement:

"If I didn't know better, I'd say that by cutting off the race's possibly strongest Democrat--first from media coverage and now from polls--the corporate media could be misleading us toward another Republican administration."

Thanks!

[MarkJohnHunter]

Where do we get something like objective reporting? The universe tends to entropy, and apparently our collective thinking goes there also. The more things are mixed up, who benefits? Not sure. Is it Hillary, the republicans, the concept of corporations being able to govern us in a competitive arrangement where the most powerful gets their way? Hillary is not a change candidate. She is the status quo. GWB has his corporate favorites. All we get with Hillary is a new set of corporate favorites. Edwards, hang on and go to the convention. Super Tuesday is only another aberration away.
Mark John Hunter - Alpena, Michigan