Explaining McCain's Success Among Evangelicals

As South Carolina Republicans headed to the polls Saturday, an all too-simple storyline emerged in the press. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister who won the Iowa caucus, would have the evangelical vote, while Arizona Senator John McCain, a Vietnam War hero, would win defense conservatives. "It's the Christian soldiers vs. the retired soldiers," one observer summed up for the Wall Street Journal.

But McCain captured a quarter of evangelical voters when he won yesterday's GOP primary according to exit polls, while Huckabee won only 40%. A recent conversation with Rich Cizik, who heads up governmental affairs for the 30-million member National Association of Evangelicals, reveals that Christian voters are a more complicated voting block than the media seems to realize. Cizik speaks unhappily about the GOP under the Bush administration. "This has been an unholy alliance in which the evangelicals have given everything and gotten nothing in return." But, he says, "It's quite obvious that the next Republican in the White House will likely be someone with a very different attitude... John McCain or Mike Huckabee, at least in the case of those two, would be much more sympathetic." (Cizik was speaking for himself, not for the NAE, which does not endorse candidates.)

Cizik's favorable disposition to Huckabee's campaign is expected. Huckabee is widely regarded as the evangelicals' greatest hope in 2008. But his view of John McCain may come as something of a surprise. McCain is regarded as having dealt his 2000 campaign a deathblow a week after George W. Bush defeated him in a dirty South Carolina primary when he blasted Bush supporters on the Religious Right in a Virginia Beach speech. He condemned Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson as "agents of intolerance" in the political campaign, and expressed disdain for their opposition to his signature issue, campaign finance reform. "I don't pander to them, because I don't ascribe to their failed philosophy that money is our message. I believe in the cause of conservative reform." Though not all evangelicals agree with Falwell and Robertson, McCain's attack on the movement's high profile leaders is believed to have ended any remaining hope that he could win over the key GOP constituency.

Looking towards 2008, McCain went to great lengths to repair relationships with the Christian leaders he had scorned in 2000. He met with Falwell in his Senate office and spoke at the graduation of the school Falwell founded, Liberty University. As the campaign heated up in the fall of '07, he made a comment to Beliefnet that many greeted as bald-faced pandering. "I just have to say in all candor that since this nation was founded primarily on Christian principles... personally, I prefer someone who I know who has a solid grounding in my faith."

Cizik's openness to McCain explains why evangelical voters are more receptive than conventional wisdom would dictate. Now, Cizik is a different breed of evangelical leader than Falwell and Robertson. Indeed, he has weathered calls for his ouster by leading "family values" conservatives because he has championed a broader agenda that includes traditionally "liberal" issues like climate change. But if that issue is any indication, Cizik's far more in sync with evangelical voters, 84% of whom favor global warming legislation. (Falwell, on the other hand, denounced global warming advocacy as "Satan's attempt to redirect the church's primary focus" shortly before his death last spring.)

On a host of issues I happen to agree with him," Cizik says of McCain, beginning with the issues that have most antagonized conservative activists. "I agree with him on campaign finance reform. I agree with him on immigration." Cizik continues, "I agree with him on climate and the environment. I agree with him on Iraq, where he's disagreed with the Bush administration [about the need for more troops]. I agree with him on [opposing additional] federal spending and earmarks and all these things. I agree with McCain on the sanctity of human life.

The truth is, the evangelical movement is not homogeneous, but divided on many key issues. While evangelical leaders have long railed against campaign finance reform because it curtailed their ability to influence elections, even Christian voters supporting Huckabee before he won Iowa expressed outrage with the big money that influences the Republican party. Immigration, similarly, splits the evangelical family. Though roughly two-thirds of white evangelicals tell pollsters they regard immigrants as a burden on society, some evangelical groups have come out in support of immigration reform or avoided the issue because of a lack of consensus.

Voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire -- and, now South Carolina -- responded to candidates who positioned themselves as outsiders. Christians want that change as much as any other rank-and-file GOP voter. While Huckabee's Christian roots gives him a leg up among evangelicals, Cizik's comments suggest why McCain can compete for these votes despite his complicated history with the evangelical leadership. "I just think McCain has been a solid leader and a maverick and an innovator," Cizik says.

Comments

[ddanaan]

The one aspect of this alliance that has not been mentioned is that the millenialist faction of the evangelicals are expecting Armageddon and always view the conflict in the Near East as the battle against the Anti-Christ (although they may parse it in different ways.) They are looking for a President who is a war leader which, whatever else his faults, Huckabee is not. Their Christ is not a god on the cross but a warrior god.

[Johnniedog]

When are the Evangelicals of this country going to realize that they have been duped by the Right-Wing Republican Party? All that Pat Robertson stood for throughout his career has been prooven to be nothing more than a Shill for the Republican Party. He is nothing more than a man with the sole purpose of fooling the good-hearted Religious people of this country into voting for the Republican Party. He has whole heartily endorsed Rudi Giuliani. A man that lived with a Gay couple for several years and presided over their Marriage. Further Rudi is pro-Abortion. DUPED! The Republicans give speeches about how they are the great Christians and the Dems are God-less, yet they walk down onto the floor of the Congress and vote to get rid of all programs that go to help the Poor, the Handicapped, and Aged of this country, DIRECTLY AGAINST THE TEACHINGS OF JESUS CHRIST. BTW, these programs were put into place by those God-less Democrats, DIRECTLY IN-LINE WITH THE TEACHINGS OF JESUS CHRIST. The Republicans have great Family Values leaders that are unbelievable. One is in the Congressional Cloakroom making calls to Prostitutes and the other is in an Airport Bathroom trying to hook-up with another Man for some Gay Sex. Don't get me started on what great Patriots the Republicans are. They snub their noses at our Constitution and comit treason by outing an undercover CIA Agent, all while torturing Military prisoners and spying on the American people, not to mention allowing their Rich corporate friends to comit acts of War-Profiteering. Catch-on and come over to the real party that represents you...Demo­crats!

[WilliePilgrim]

It's not the candidates religion..­.it's what the candidate thinks and says he'll do in relationship to it. I can't get over these guys comparing themselves to Kennedy and his relationship with his religion and whose position on his catholicism, were that to be voiced to day by any of these so-called religous men, would guarantee these sad immitations of thinking men, that they'd satisfy most liberals and consequently loose the evangelicals.

[Doofus]

The large factions of the GOP have to align to get a pair of candidates that are acceptable to a majority of Repos. If the factions supporting McCain & Huckabee get together, suggesting the obvious pairing, ignoring the comment by Hucka-buddy Chuck Norris about McCain being 'too old', they might have something that works for the GOP faithful. Would Huckabee's ego allow him to serve as VP & faithful sidekick for awhile?

[sparkandy]

Even some of the Born Agains (they are NOT Christian) are smart enough to know that Huckabee won't fly with moderate voters, let alone liberal ones. But McCain will, especially if the Dems do their perpetual foot shooting and nominate someone only the yellow dog Dems will vote for. So, as for McCain pandering to them, I think it's the other way around. They're sucking up to him because they know he has a pretty good chance of being elected in '08. And they want to make sure he pays attention to at least a portion of their evil agenda.

[Mickey1]

Most of the Christians I know are voting for Ron Paul. Paul is Pro-Life from womb to tomb. Paul will stop the government from selling our children's future. Foreign countries are buying up the banks now. Our country needs to regroup. Stop giving our money away. Bring all of our troops home. And get the government out of our private lives. I know Paul is a long shot now. But in about three weeks when the mortgage insurance companies go belly up his plan to save the economy will put him center stage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhKyD7kKlJg
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=36480&sectionid=3510203

[DemandTruth]

It's interesting that evangelicals feel that way about the Bush Administration. Because from my outsider perspective:

There has never been another administration that pandered so much to right wing christian evangelicals. There has never been another administration who held monthly (at least) meetings IN THE WHITE HOUSE for several powerful/i­nfluential evangelical leaders with the president and other high ups (I doubt they were having a prayer circle). There has never been another administration that so catered to evangelical whims re: faith-based initiatives (taxpayer dollars for religious programs), promoting evangelical education (teaching creationsim as science), promoting evangelical sex education (NO sex education disguised as worthless abstinance only preaching), and installing evangelically activist judges (intending to overturn roe v wade, rolling back civil rights for minorities, etc)...

Never have I seen such an evangelical religious administration! I sure as hell didn't have any personal representatives meeting with the president every month, I know that.

You'd almost think Jesus was running this country, the way these guys have been pandering to the religious right.

Hmmm. Come to think of it, not only have I never seen an administration so innundated with evangelicalism and holier-than-thou piousness, I've also never seen an administration so corrupt, dishonest, and morally bankrupt as this one either.

Coinkydink? I think not.

[Sciguy]

One thing that doesn't get pointed out very often: if Schmuckabee becomes the Repub candidate, or even the Prez, there will be a whole lot of christians, including evangelicals, who will be VERY surprised to find that they're the Spawn of Satan if they disagree with him. This post does point out that even all evangelicals, though they do have points of agreement, differ on other issues. The guy who won't let a woman have an abortion may also be the guy who won't allow campaign finance reform. No two christians agree on anything, not really. Even 2 members of the same church will disagree about something, and after they discover their differences, they'll each spend the rest of their time vilifying each other.

McCain, of course, will pander to whomever he needs for the Vote. If he gets into office, he'll have trouble figuring out which way to point his beak - this christian or that one? Who's got more dough?

Evangelicals, by definition, are supposedly just spreading the word of their god - zealously and militantly (M-W online). But what happens when they find out that each of them may have a slightly different view of what their god's word is? Hello, Northern Ireland. Hello, Shia and Sunni. Both are stupid wars that went on (or are going on still) because of ever-so-slightly different interpretations of the Word.

Don't trust any of them - trust YOUR Higher Power that you'll end up being despised because of YOUR beliefs, regardless of what they are.

[desmirl]

McCain will pander to any group, any place, any time... He wants to be president because his ego far exceeds his abilities. Check his record at the academy. He wasn't a good student. Of course, Bush wasn't a good student at Yale. Do we want another one of these "We can drink a beer together but danged if I can discuss Spinoza or Camus with you," types? I want to know my president is a highly-educated, sophisticated, and intelligent person. John McCain is none of these, and if you tell him that to his face, he'll behave in a manner that will make it easy for you to know he was once a sailor.

[DoninJoisey]

The last true Christian in the White House was Carter.
Clinton lied, committed adultery. The Bushes lied, and showed no compassion or understanding.
As to McCain, hey, if you can believe the Earth is only a few thousand years old, why not believe we're winning in Iraq?

[transendentilist]

Christianity has taken a beating because of these fundie busybodies. I think the religious (christian) element in America is starting to become a bit confused about what the meaning of true christianity is. Their leaders have failed them, miserably by their behaviors which were anything but christian. They are always on the attack in some form or another. Against some group or another (gays, women who choose to have abortions)yet they say nothing about the needless slaughter that their president unleashed. I think the flock is without a proper shepard.