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Lincoln Mitchell

Lincoln Mitchell

Posted: June 26, 2010 05:42 PM

After McChrystal

What's Your Reaction:

President Obama did the right thing this week in firing General Stanley McChrystal. Allowing McChyrstal to remain in office after the Rolling Stone story in which McChrystal belittled members of the Obama administration would have allowed his rather outrageous insubordination to stand unchallenged. It also would have encouraged further insubordination in the military which can ultimately threaten the notion of civilian control of the military. Obama is the Commander in Chief; and he acted accordingly this week. Similarly, Obama's choice of General David Petraeus as the man to replace McChrystal is also politically a good one because Petraeus, the military man associated with whatever success we have had in Iraq in recent years, is well respected among most political elites and opinion makers.

Obama's actions were a necessary response to an immediate problem, but they also raise bigger questions about the future of the war in Afghanistan. The firing of McChrystal brought the effort in Afghanistan back into reasonably sharp focus. John McCain, for example, questioned the wisdom of Obama's withdrawal deadline of mid-2011. Criticisms like McCain's will likely grow stronger over the next twelve months as it becomes increasingly, and predictably, clear that the US will not meet its goals in Afghanistan before this time.

More notably several respected analysts including Tom Ricks have suggested that President Obama use this moment to clean house in Afghanistan, firing US Ambassador to Afghanistan Karl Eikenberry and Special Representative to the region Richard Holbrooke as well. The ostensible reason for this would be to give Petraeus the opportunity to choose his own team. However, a shakeup of this scope would be something of an admission that things aren't going as hoped in Afghanistan. Although this may be obvious, it is probably not an admission that Obama would want to make at this time. That the idea has been bandied about by some of the punditry, however, suggests that there is growing awareness of the problems we are facing in Afghanistan which cannot be easily ignored.

Obama spent much of 2009 seeking to determine an Afghanistan policy before deciding to send more troops. The latest round of events in Kabul and Washington demonstrate that policy is still not resolved. Regardless of whether or not Obama continues to change the leadership in Afghanistan, the sense that things are not going well there is not going to go away. The McChrystal firing provides Obama with an opportunity to revisit much of his Afghanistan policy. While radically changing course there because of McChrystal's interview with Rolling Stone would be a mistake, using this moment to lay the groundwork for a policy shift would be wise.

The central problem Obama faces in Afghanistan is the same one he faced when he made his speech at West Point in December, or for that matter, when he took office in January of 2009. It is difficult to get out of Afghanistan today, but it will be more difficult to get out tomorrow. Thus the decision to get out requires the foresight to understand the real likelihood of things getting worse not better, as well as the wisdom to take the political consequences for getting out now rather than postponing them until later when those consequences will be greater. Given that a decision to withdraw troops will lead many on the far right to deem Obama a quitter, appeaser, soft on terror or other ad hominem attacks, there is added pressure on Obama not to withdraw from Afghanistan.

By postponing that decision, however, Obama will only create a more difficult dilemma later. The chances of Petraus turning the war around to the point where it will be possible to begin substantially drawing down troops beginning in mid-2011 is quite small. The problems in Afghanistan are not the kind that can be solved simply by changing American military leadership. Moreover, if this were the case, then McChrystal should have been fired months ago and not simply as a response to his recent poor media judgment.

Thus, it is likely that as the withdrawal date approaches, Obama will be faced with the same tough decision about whether or not to withdraw troops from Afghanistan which he confronts now. However, by mid-2011, this decision will be more difficult because failure to honor his commitment will raise the ire of many who opposed the initial buildup. They will argue, not without cause, that not only has Obama pursued the wrong policy in Afghanistan, but that he has broken his promises regarding the war as well.

Firing McChrystal was a relatively easy decision for Obama. Had he not done it, his authority, and that of the entire civilian government, over the war effort would have been brought into question. Unfortunately, the other decisions the President faces regarding Afghanistan are not as easy, but postponing them will only make those decisions harder.

 
 
 

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Skunkman
old & decrepit
02:54 PM on 06/28/2010
President Truman learned the hard way that appeasing his military commander (Douglas MacArthur) only hardened the general whom he ultimately had to remove anyway before he got us into a world war with China. President Eisenhower realized, after eight years of dealing with the military from the executive side, that indeed there must be limits placed on the potential misuses of power by those running the military-industrial complex.

This is much more than a case of stupidity and a trip to the woodshed to punish it. This is a case of incredible lack of judgment and ignoring the military’s code of conduct. This general truly believes that he is running the country. This is on a par for hubris with Alexander Haig saying as much about himself when President Reagan had been shot. It is dangerous behavior. President Obama will pay the price if he ignores the facts on the ground. McChrystal had to go.
12:17 PM on 06/28/2010
Come Home, America

We’re crossing seas in search of dragons
And other beasts to slay
Come home, America
Time to discover our own way

Solving other people’s problems
Is an errand meant for fools
Come home, America
It ain’t our job to make the rules

Dropping drones on wedding parties
Ain’t the best way to make friends
Come home, America
We have better gifts to send

Puffy, pasty pundits send
Our youngsters off to die
Come home, America
Before our nation is bled dry

We’re blowing up other countries
Instead of fixing up our own
Come home, America
Time to cast away the stones

We have so much to offer
But we ain’t the world’s cop
Come home, America
This madness has to stop

Decline and dissolution
Don’t have to be our fate
Come home, America
I swear it’s not too late
11:00 AM on 06/28/2010
If we just pack up and leave then Al Qaida comes back in and takes over. The people that have helped us will be brutally and publicly murdered and the good we have done will be undone very quickly. I do not believe we can just pack up and leave without a horrible effect on these countries. And we do not want Al Qaida to get a good strong hold again. Unfortunately the longer this drags on the less likely we are to have the success we want. My vote is to let the Generals take it and run with it. I have more faith in their ability to get the job done than the current powers that be
outnow
Ban the bomb
12:05 PM on 06/28/2010
Substitute the words "Vietnam" for Afhganistan and the words "terrorist" for the words "communist" and you have described the Vietnam war dilemma. So we stayed in Vietnam with 45,000 more casualties, Nixon got re-elected, we went broke and veterans had PTSD, Agent Orange exposure, and millions of Vietnamese died. Then the millions who died in Cambodia and Laos.

The Taliban will clean out AQ just as likely that Vietman would resist the Chinese as well as they did the Japanese. We are indirectly financing the opposition with opium dealing and bribes to allow convoys of supplies through.

We have to let other people live their lives around the world as we go broke ourselves. The neocon mission has failed. It is no longer "if" or even "when."
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Pyrum
11:14 PM on 06/28/2010
Al Qaeda takes back over? Al Qaeda was never in charge of Afghanistan in the first place! The Taliban was, and currently is in charge of Afghanistan, and Obama made it clear we're not fighting the Taliban, we're over there going after about 100 or so members of Al Qaeda who are left in Afghanistan, according to military intelligence. If we leave, the Taliban won't let them take over.
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Praedor
10:47 AM on 06/28/2010
Because of cobalt, titanium, lithium, copper, etc. Oh, and pipelines.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Praedor
10:39 AM on 06/28/2010
I hate that mealymouthed statement that politicos and pundits like to use: "It is difficult to get out..."

No. It isn't. You simply start packing up and leaving. Any "difficulty" is ENTIRELY in the minds of those who do not REALLY want to get out. We can easily get out of any military situation, be it Iraq or Afghanistan: start packing up and leaving.
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TRex86
Enjoying life in West Ohio
10:12 AM on 06/28/2010
As an elder Baby Boomer I once thought that Vietnam was an aberration. Our inflated self-righteousness following WWII led us into an ill-conceived "land war in Asia" with no clear objectives, a flaky ally, and no exit strategy--no idea what "victory" looked like. Like many in my generation I struggled with difficult choices, serving in the military in an unjust war or draft resistance. I took the latter route and made my small contribution to ending a painful chapter that still divides my generation.

Looking back, we learned NOTHING from Vietnam. We have turned ourselves into stumbling, bumbling imperialists, lurching around the planet as though we're the world's police force. Be it geopolitics or realpolitik we've launched dubious wars big and small from the 80's on. What have we achieved? Nothing. We now outspend the rest of the planet combined on defense and quiver in fear of tiny terrorist cells that pose no strategic threat whatsoever.

In the post-millinneal world we haven't learned a vivid history lesson: stay out of Afghanistan. They have beaten several thousand years' worth of imperialists. Most recently the Soviet Union. What makes us think we're different? Sadly, America loves nothing as much as our bad ideas. Where Reagan should be lauded is his attempts at nuclear disarmament. Where he should be villified was his opportunistic neo-imperialism that has put us on the brink of self-destruction 30 years later.

Is it too late to end this dreadful policy?
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joetrade
biography
10:25 AM on 06/28/2010
I totally agree with you honey.You are fanned!
outnow
Ban the bomb
11:56 AM on 06/28/2010
I, too, was an elder Babyboomer and faced the war choices in Vietnam. I can remember Korea even to this day.

The US wanted to play Globo-cop with all of its military toys. Raygun promoted militarism and conquests for oil and a class war against working people. It has all come to fruition. I am not the least bit surprised.

How many Vietnams does the US need to have? Eisenhower saw the dangers of allowing a ground war in Asian drain the country. JFK tried to stop the madness and to counter the Fed.

Since RFK, Sr, died, there have been no good prospects for peace.

In Afghanistan we will be passing out favors to warlords and drug dealers. We did payoffs in Iraq called the Sunni Awakening. Vietnam was frought with conflicts but nothing like the documentary movie "Iraq for Sale" by Robert Greenwald can open your eyes, nothing since the publication of the Pentagon papers which nobody actually read anyway because it's too long. The movie is playing on Russian Television.
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TRex86
Enjoying life in West Ohio
12:20 PM on 06/28/2010
Great comments. (Fanned).

"How many Vietnams does the US need to have?" Indeed, the question of the hour. In my teaching career I have come to recognize a triad of cognitive dysfunction that leads inevitably to groupthink: 1. ignorance; 2. arrogance; 3. intellectual laziness. Such is post-millennial America. The power of the stupidity triad blocks the recognition of past mistakes.

E.g., we "lost" Vietnam because we didn't nuke them or because the government didn't support the troops, etc. These myths persist even though at least 20 books give honest, objective reasons we could never win that stupid war. (My favorite is Our Vietnam by Longguth).

Now we are trapped in our own parochialism. We do not care to examine the history of Afghanistan and its feckless would-be conquerors. Nope. How dare we deny American "exceptionalism?" (Exceptional stupidity). We have turned our military into a meat-grinder for the working class and created the economic environment to keep up the rate of volunteers as no alternate jobs abound--except drug-dealing.

Moreover, our insatiable hunger for contraband drugs fuels our enemies in Afghanistan. Perhaps the way out of Afghanistan (and a good idea for other reasons) would be legalizing heroine for certified addicts. We would rid ourselves of two idiotic wars: Afghanistan and the War on Drugs.

(I also recommend Chalmers Johnson's trilogy on the implications of neo-imperialism).
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joetrade
biography
09:07 AM on 06/28/2010
I do not agree with any of these fallacious arguments concerning the inability of the US to get out of Afghanistan.Any gambler will tell you that there's a time to hold and a time to fold.What is not reiterated enough is that the initial argument for US troops to enter Afghanistan was to seek out Osama bin Laden and either kill him or capture him.This is by it's very definition a special forces job incorporating a limited number of especially trained special forces teams who can perform such a mission.,Our mission for some inexplicable reason has bubbled into some 100.000 troops plus unknown quantities of mercenaries no longer searchimg for Osama but fighting the Taliban.Whence and how this initial mission expanded into a completely different one is beyond my understanding.It does seem however, that whenever vast sums of taxpayer monies are available Congress,in their infinite wisdom,will not shirk in voting whatever the military asks for,without any real justification for these increases.As long as the majority in the Congress and the apathetic American voter still believe that this ignominious disaster that we call a war is absolutely neccessary to protect American lives this charade will continue.A President with a stiffer spine could end this fiasco immediately.It is time to fold!
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Dredd
Our government is a wartocracy.
07:00 AM on 06/28/2010
Does that have anything to do with the oil fields and pipeline construction schedule? Afghanistan is now leasing its oil sites for development.

http://blogdredd.blogspot.com/2010/06/oilah-akbar-in-afghanistan.html
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nastywolf
...to promote the general welfare...
01:12 AM on 06/28/2010
Forget about the idea that the US is trying to come up with a way to pull out of Afghanistan. It isn't. And if it isn't, why?
12:24 AM on 06/28/2010
Without a firm date for withdrawal Karzai will be calling all the shots. He and his cronies need to be on notice that this is their war not ours and that they have to step up because we are stepping out. We should not back off from a firm date for withdrawal.
01:19 AM on 06/28/2010
Petraeus already was backing off of it last week in committee. The pressure was already intense for him - he fainted - and he didn't even know he was going to have to take over McChrystal's front line duty. Obama just backed off from it today in Canada, saying that people were getting "obsessed" with deadlines. Get ready for the next big cave in on a promise to the left from President Obama.
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Praedor
10:45 AM on 06/28/2010
There is truth to "problem" of naming a specific date or timeframe for pulling out when the situation you are dealing with is counterinsurgency. Unlike regular warfare, an insurgency/counterinsurgency does not and cannot follow a simple timeline. Stating, for a fact, that on THIS date we will start leaving does give a break to an insurgency. They CAN simply lay relatively low (but not so low as to make everyone believe they've gone away) and wait until the date comes and then they're home free to conduct operations to their heart's content. Of course, the problem is counterinsurgency itself: slow, costly, VERY poor prognosis for success. If you've gotten yourself involved in a counterinsurgency, then the odds are you screwed up the operation PRE-insurgency.
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12:23 AM on 06/28/2010
"Petraeus...is well respected among most political elites and opinion makers."

Yep, our troops simply haven't spent sufficient time considering what the opinion makers want prior to attempting to, like, stay alive.
I presume victory is now assured.
Thank goodness.
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chuck becker
12:16 AM on 06/28/2010
Professor Mitchell,

You wrote a very ordinary story: general gets fired, time to re-evaluate strategy? That is so done, it virtually writes itself. What you missed is far more interesting.

Prior to his current tour at CENTCOM, Gen Petraeus was Commander, MNF-I. Following his success and acceptance there, he was promoted to CENTCOM. With that promotion, his responsibilities increased by approximately 5X. He assumed responsibility for all facets of all military operations in the Central Command AOR. By all accounts, he has been extremely successful in his current assignment.

Here's what you missed: taking this job in Afghanistan is a significant step backwards for him, chain of command wise. Where, as CENTCOM, his chain of command went to the Chairman, JCS, then to SecDef, then the POTUS, he now answers to whoever will replace him at CENTCOM.

This creates a very interesting situation. Is the entire chain of command so beholden to Gen Petraeus that he now, as ground forces commander in Afghanistan, now speaks directly to POTUS? Does he (as I expect he will) show such professional restraint that he observes the chain of command through the officer who relieved him so he could comply with a request from POTUS? Where do the Chairman JCS and SecDef fit in this most unusual command relationship?

These are the truly interesting questions in this particular move. You believe a change in strategy in Afghanistan is desirable. That does not excuse you from having insight and vision.
09:47 AM on 06/28/2010
Petraeous , in getting his "surge" in Afghanistan, made some firm commitments to Obama that the 2011 withdrawal would definitely occur on time and on schedule. Now Petraeous is attempting to hedge on that commitment. All Obama has done now is move the target from McChrystal's back, Petraeous' straw man, to Petraeous himself. It couldn't happen to a nicer over promoted , under qualified hack than Petraeous.
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chuck becker
02:41 PM on 06/28/2010
"over promoted , under qualified hack than Petraeous". That's an opinion you don't hear much.

The politicians have been putting unconscionable pressure on the military, since LBJ and Viet Nam at the very least, to make unrealistic commitments. I don't know all the details, but I do know that political expediency drives us to dates and force levels when those decisions should be made based on conditions.
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J.C. Convery
11:53 PM on 06/27/2010
How amazingly naieve we are if we think that we shouldn't stay the course in AfPak. Our problems with Afghanastan didn't begin on 9/11/01 and wont end in 2011. Afghanastan in essence is unfinished business. It was a mess that we created at the end of the Cold War and we walked away from it. In a classic case of blowback this policy blew up in our face. We armed Al Qeda types and sicked them on the godless communists only to have them turn on us because we are the "Great Satan". Surely we have dealt them blows but Al Qeda and in essence the Taliban are the one thing that the communists surely were not, a monolithic ideology which holds as its goal the creation of a new Islamic empire. Look at the bigger picture and you'll see that elements of radical islam have been successful in destabilizing governments in the region and inciting ethnic violence. We're supposed to walk away from this? Should we walk away we will not learn the lessons of the past and we may just find ourselves dealing with a mushroom cloud over Manhattan.
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jrgilb0729
08:57 AM on 06/27/2010
It doesn't matter what this author or anyone else thinks about Obama's decision to can this guy. If you were either in the military or a vet you would know one thing. The General and his staff violated Article 88 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice. This is not only a Court Martial Offense but one that under the most exteme conditions could justify a firing squad.

This ain't Grade School people. You should live in Isreal. EVERYBODY SERVES IN THE MILITARY AND THEY DON'T CARE IF YOU DON'T LIKE IT.
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Enroh Mot
Veritas Lux Mea
11:09 PM on 06/26/2010
Obama will still be taking orders from Petraeus....stay the course.
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ChasG
Unborn, unchanging, undying Universe
11:20 PM on 06/26/2010
I think Obama is in charge. Patraeus is a general of both humility and proven effectiveness, found somewhat lacking in McChrystal. Overall troop strength in the region has already declined about 20% since Obama took office. He may not hit the 16 month target on the nose, but getting out is not as easy and you want it to be.
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Enroh Mot
Veritas Lux Mea
11:31 PM on 06/26/2010
Anti war Vet, get out now, no more BS.