Barack Obama's Real Problem with the Jewish Vote
Now that the Democratic Primary is finally and definitively over, we will probably begin to hear even more about Barack Obama's relationship, even his problem, with Jewish voters. Barack does have a problem with Jewish voters--there aren't enough of them. Lost in all the noise about Obama's supposed problems winning Jewish support, is that the latest polls show him winning this group by a margin of almost 2-1. If this constitutes a problem, Obama should wish for such problems with Christian and other voters as well.
The Jewish vote is often misunderstood by many who think it is larger or more likely to vote Republican than it actually is. Poll data, however, indicate Jews are a small but reliably Democratic block of voters. Jews only constitute between 3-5% of the vote in a typical presidential election; and typically 70-80% of Jews vote for the Democratic presidential candidate.
In 2004, for example, according to exit polls, 74% of Jews voted for Democrat John Kerry, a higher Democratic percentage than some groups generally thought of as part of the Democratic base including Latinos, Asians, women and labor union members. African Americans and gays and lesbians were the only major demographic groups that were stronger in their support for Kerry than Jews. Kerry's showing among Jewish voters was no aberration. In fact, Kerry got a slightly smaller proportion of the Jewish vote than either Gore in 2000 (79%) or Clinton in 1996 (79%). In all three elections, the Democratic candidate got roughly the same proportion of the overall vote.
Casual followers of American politics could be forgiven for being unaware of these numbers. The media has been filled with stories about Obama's inability to win Jewish voters, fear among some Jewish voters that Obama is really a Muslim, Republican attacks on Obama as being essentially anti-Israel, and Obama's alleged connections to prominent anti-Semites such as Louis Farrakhan. Efforts to peel Jewish voters away from Obama have been somewhat successful. It is likely that the Jewish vote will not be as strongly Democratic in November as in previous cycles. Obama will probably get at least 60-70% of the vote, less than his Democratic predecessors, but still a comfortable margin.
Obama will win the Jewish vote handily because he speaks to the values of the Jewish community. While most American Jews care a great deal about Israel and will not support a candidate who does not support the State of Israel, Jews are not single issue voters. Jews, who are among the most affluent ethnic groups in the US, are, in many respects similar to lower income religious Christian white voters. Both groups are values voters; and both groups vote against the narrow interests of their economic class. The majority of Jews in America continue to vote on values, such as tolerance, equality and fairness. These values push them to the Democratic Party and its standard bearer in this election.
My point is not to write a philo-Semitic paean to Jewish liberalism, but to explore the reasons why this gap between the media coverage and the reality of the Jewish vote exists. The stubborn refusal of Jewish Americans to abandon the party of Roosevelt and Truman is a story that runs counter to the recent narratives of both the left and the right. The conservative narrative is that Jews are becoming increasingly Republican because Democrats are weak on terrorism, unconcerned about Iran and not committed to the security of Israel. George W. Bush's failure to win more than 25% of the Jewish vote in the 2004 election, where terrorism and security were the dominant issues, is not exactly consistent with this narrative. On the contrary, it suggests that appeals to Jewish voters on these issues, as framed by the Republican Party, are simply not working. In fairness, if the poll numbers hold up, Jewish support for the Democratic candidate will have declined in three straight elections, but winning one third of the Jewish vote hardly constitutes a major victory for John McCain or the Republican Party.
The conservative hope that Jews will begin voting Republican in substantial numbers, thus demonstrating the increased diversity of the Republican Party, has led conservative pundits, journalists and others to overstate Jewish support for the GOP and to try to spin, or more accurately, create, the story that Jews will not vote for Obama. This, however, is not the only reason that this notion gets the support it does in the media more broadly. Progressive rhetoric also downplays Jewish support for the Democratic Party and for the left more generally.
The progressive narrative regarding the Jewish vote is as misleading as the conservative one. This narrative describes the Democratic Party as building its base on multi-racial support and lower income whites. This is an appealing and logical narrative, but less than empirically accurate. Latinos and Asians, while at times key parts of the Democratic coalition, do not consistently support the Democratic Party in proportions comparable to Jews. Lower income whites are more accurately described as swing voters who generally split their vote between the two parties, or evince a slight preference for the Republican Party. Saying that the Democratic Party base is a coalition of African Americans, Jews, gays and lesbians, and other liberal whites is more accurate, but is presents an image of the Democratic Party that may not be appealing to key swing voters. More notably, recognizing this means recognizing that the broad progressive coalition that many on the left would like to see, has not yet come to fruition.
There are also less benign narratives why Jewish support for the Democratic Party goes unrecognized. Jews are one of the most Democratic and, yes, pro-Obama segments of the population, but this is an inconvenient reality for the disturbingly large anti-Israel and, in some cases anti-Semitic, voices in the anti-war movement and the left more generally. Those on the left who believe that the US went to war in Iraq because of Israel, or that Israel is somehow the cause of all problems in the Middle East and American foreign policy and that American Jews are somehow behind that, do not want their theories about American Jews inconvenienced by actual data regarding the political behavior of American Jews, so they ignore it.
Should McCain defy expectations and manage to defeat Obama in November, their will likely be efforts on the right to attribute that victory in some small degree to the increased Jewish support for McCain. It is even more likely that there will be voices on the left accusing American Jews of abandoning the Democratic Party in this election. That kind of irresponsible and offensive blame placing, while not grounded in reality, could quickly become accepted progressive political wisdom, have a destructive impact on progressive politics and contribute to the growth of anti-Semitism on the left. Of course, we won't have to worry about Obama losing if he develops the same problems with Christian voters that he now has with Jews.
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I think it's great that the Jews have their own country and all. But America is seriously broken, in just about every way you can think of. We have to concentrate on our own country at this time. We have to dedicate all of our scarce resources to fixing schools, infrastructure, the economy and public health. I'm sure our allies the Israelis will understand.
The media loves to hype demographic non-"problems" with the first black president. Like his women "problem", even though he is winning more women than Kerry. Or his Latino "problem", even though he is winning more Latinos than Kerry. Or his white "problem" even though he is beating McCain coast to coast, and even close to him in WEST VIRGINIA!!
It is all a bunch of shit, and the media is feeding it so people doubt Obama and so the Republicans can continue to try to race-bait and make a culture issue out of this.
I think we need to take out an article. There is no THE Jewish vote, there's at least 2 or 3. It's not my community but I hear Jewish commedians say it is hard to get a group of Jews to agree on toppings for a pizza, forget about a ONE vote for president. And I doubt that secular Jews who love their heritage but aren't at synogogue all the time are going to be voting some party line with the Hassidics.
HOWEVER, I think it is time for the left to use different language when proesting certain aspects of Israel policy. It is not that most of the left objects to being friends of that country or sending them a certain amount of financial and political aid. Its being held slave to certain PARTY line within Israeli politics. Particularly it seems the US feels the need to support all Likud party initiatives and positions, to the exclusion even of other forces within Israel. That's what we need to protest, the pro-Likud wing of American politics, not the "pro-Israel" or "pro-jewish" ideas.
Well said!
Great comment, Trevor Alan. But what gets me is: Israel is never a top issue that comes up in voter polling, but the media has made Israel, instead of Iraq, the top foreign policy issue of this election.
If Obama just focus on the real issues that concern voters most, he'll win in a landslide.
Bulls--t on Pro-Israel or pro-jewish groups! We need to develop a pro-American faction and get our butts out of the Middle East. We have enough problems of our own which are not being attended to, because of our money being given to this ungrateful rogue state.
We also need to quit supporting a rogue state with these "yearly" "automatic" "donations" of our much needed tax money. If Israel can devote its shekels towards developing nuclear weapons, it can jolly well fend for itself without the constant support of our dollars. Israel gets more of our tax dollars than some of our own states. How long is this charity suppose to go on? Did we vote to adopt Israel somewhere along the way?
Can we establish some real common sense here ? Lets' accept a few things. First the Jewish vote is not a block vote but in the past it has been predictable. Second, when people talk about the Jewish vote they are not referring to JUST the vote itself but the influence of society on every level from finance to foreign policy.
Obama had the choice to open his campaign and start with an announcement of support for Israel with a pro-Israel perspective. He did not. He came out on national television with his buddies from the anti-semite group slapping happy and making jokes with Rev Al Sharpton.
Then later he made pro-Palestinian statements. Followed by campaign sloganeering statements about meeting with pro-Hamas leaders personally as president of the United States.
He's not polling well in Florida or the Jewish community and numerous pro-Israeli supporters are questioning where he stands on foreign policy.
Does Obama have a Jewish vote problem ? I think a small one but a significant one and possibly enough to warrant attention.
not likely. He'll get the Jewish vote handily. The problem in FL has more to do with the geriatric non-computer literate vote then the Jewish vote, but given enough time they too will come around. You can stop spouting the anti-semitic rhetoric that plops in your mailbox. Obama is as pro-Israel as any candidate has been and maybe even more.
Obama has never said that he would meet with Hamas. He has said just the opposite.
Please don't confuse the lies of McCain as the gospel! Or the media on his problem with Jews, white people, Asians and Latinos. He has not problem with these ethnic groups and the media wasnts a horse race.
How about if Obama worries less about Israel and the jewish vote and spends more time on American problems Pippen? You seem to think that a candidate accrues worth in direct proportion to his dedication to Israel and jews, which to you, appear to be one and the same.
Apparently, you join the other "one-issue" voters in judging Obama entirely on his perceived stand regarding Israel and are satisfied to smear him with innuendo and the always popular, if not worn out, tag of anti-semite by association. Ever try to champion an American agenda? You should be, assuming you're an American.
The Jewish vote is not the issue, Jewish influence and money is the issue; this is a community that has geared our entire foreign policy for the past 50 years in the MidEast to benefit Israel, to the detriment of the 500 million Arabs and the United States.
The Jewish Zionist community, in alliance with the Evangelical End time Zionists have been successful in terrorizing both political parties into pro-Israeli mouth and war machines; regardless of who Jewish people vote for, they're voting for Israel because both Democrat and Republican are going to use American resources to benefit the jewish nation including attacking Iraq and Iran. Other polls I've read, state 85% of Jews vote for the candidate who is most pro-Israel; your percentages and numbers are highly suspect and smell of made up propaganda because the masses have woken up to the neferious pro-Israeli forces dominating this nations political, media, academic and military policies.
In your own words: "most American Jews ..will not support a candidate who does not support the State of Israel".
That says it all; you can not have it both ways, be a community that claims to vote on multi-issues and then base your' entire voting and influence on one issue: Israel.
Well said, KISSME! I hope that Obama will have so many votes that it won't matter if Jews vote for him or not. Maybe then we will have a more balanced approach to the Middle East that serves our interests and not those of AIPAC.
A sampling from my small part of the USA.......... Northern IL
My Republican Jewish friends and neighbors are supporting Obama over
McCain and of course the Dems are too.
Obama has no problems here and this area is a stronghold Republican County.
OBAMA'S REAL PROBLEM WITH THE JEWISH VOTE
The problem is simple...he's not going to get it!
Pander and appease as much as he wants, he will not win that demographic...especially not by the margins the article and Obama supporters think he will.
The article says 70%...we're not talking about the black vote, guys.
You may want to support your points with some facts.
Opinions are like you-know-whats...everybody has one. That doesn't make them right.
Since when are neocons interested in facts? They create their own reality, remember?
Jews, in general, are too smart and care too much about others to vote for McBush.
Really?
Obama has a huge Jewish problem. If he is losing 10-20% of the Jewish vote a Dem normally has that can lose him swing states. I have Jewish relatives who think I am nuts to support him. His pastor Wright has been close to Farrakhan, an outright antiSemite. From some Jews' point of view this is like electing a guy who is a friend of a friend of Hitler and stupid to the point of recklessness. I am supporting Obama because I think this association means less than meets the eye. But it bothers me. If you want to know why Jews may turn to the right, read some of the ant-Israel posts on this site. One third of the Jewish people worldwide were murdered the decade I was born. Israel, the refuge for the survivors, has been attacked since the UN sanctioned its birth and still is being attacked. But to the left increasingly only the suffering of the Palestinians is real. How have the Palestinians shown they want peace? By suicide bombings?
Although I am not Jewish, I understand the issues concerning Israel and American Jews. I live and work with people of all walks and of the Jewish people I know are 100% behind Obama. They can and they do shift through the endless b.s. disseminated by the Republicans, they know the issues! They know ISSUE #1 is we as a nation can't afford another BUSH/McCain White House, not just on an economical standpoint but on an emotional - but for the sake of the country!
Obama should have no problem with the Jewish vote. He bowed and cringed in fear, and shock and awe before the AIPAC masters of America. Strange that this lawyer has no knowledge of the role of UN Security Council resolutions, international law, and the Geneva Convention.
Do you think we Jews don't know pandering when we see it?
Do you think we trust panderers?
None of his pandering counts becuase of hist Israel Hating 9and sometimes Jew hating) advisers.
Lots of words in this essay (almost 1,200) but a key point missed:
Yes, the Jewish vote is only 3-5% of the total vote, but the American presidential election is not a plebiscite, not a national popular vote election as your analysis suggests. It's a series of 50 different elections on one day (plus the District of Columbia) and the goal is to collect 270 electoral votes.
This means that where the Jewish voters are located geographically is what matters.
By your own calculations, Clinton and Gore pushed 80% of the Jewish vote, and you write that "Obama will probably get at least 60-70% of the vote," which you call a "comfortable margin." A drop in the Jewish vote of 10-20% is "comfortable" to you, given that it's an electoral election and not a national popular vote? You must be kidding. That's killer bad for Dems.
From where I sit, this means that at the end of the day, Florida and its 27 electoral votes are likely off the table for Obama.
Let's analyze voting groups within the prism of how we actually elect a president in this country, OK?
"Those on the left who believe that the US went to war in Iraq because of Israel, or that Israel is somehow the cause of all problems in the Middle East and American foreign policy and that American Jews are somehow behind that, do not want their theories about American Jews inconvenienced by actual data regarding the political behavior of American Jews, so they ignore it."
Thank you, Lincoln!
I don't know how many times I have fought those prejudices on this site's comment threads.
Most Jewish Americans are no doubt supportive of Israel. However, I would venture to guess that most of them do not agree with the Likudnik, bellicose stand of AIPAC. It's just that there is really no alternative organization with the clout possessed by that group. It is incumbent upon all Americans to realize that it is not in the interests of the U.S. to hitch its wagon to an Israeli regime bent on perpetual conflict and confrontation. A realistic foreign policy based upon humanitarian considerations, which takes account of the need for Israeli security at the same time recognizing the legitimate grievances of the Palestinians is the only way to blunt the impact of groups like AIPAC and the fascist "Christians United for Israel" (the Armageddon lobbying group).
Americans of all faiths need to unite and set the parameters for a long term policy which will not only benefit Israel, but her neighbors as well. The conflict in the Middle East is a problem in need of solving, not a wound that needs more salt poured into it.
Snowball, you rock. I am comforted by the (mostly) reasonable and well articulated posts by those of the Jewish faith. I and many like me are terribly upset by the unwillingness of the MSM to give a voice to the Palestinian people, or to even document equally the daily tragedies that are occuring in that area. And we were very very disturbed by Obama's over-the-top paen to Zionist desires when he spoke to AIPAC........as a matter of fact it sent a chill down my spine wondering if we are all being mislead by Mr. O. He completely overdid it, and said not a word about the suffering of the Palestinians or most important, the need for America to serve as an honest broker in urging the two sides to engage, make concessions, begin to see each other as human once again and make some real progress towards dialing down this heartbreaking conflagration whose embers never seem to die out. Here's hoping he shows better foreign policy judgment in the future.
"disturbingly large anti-Israel" I don't believe there is anything disturbing about being anti-Israel. If anything many people know this country is in violation of many UN resolution since its establishment and to ignore the country's illegal occupation of its natural inhabitants is disturbing. Stop fueling the ridiculous claims that being anti Israel is anti-Semitic. There are legitimate reasons to believe the US went to war in Iraq because of Israel besides securing Iraq's oil and Israel's own agenda is attributed to most problems in the Middle East.
A recent survey said that most Europeans regard Israel as a threat to world peace, is that disturbing? And recently an international survery ranked it next to Iran.
This country is not what it seems and stifiling debate on Israel is not wrong and certainly not anti-semetic.
Thanks for proving the writer's point, and repeating a canard over and over until ignorant people think it's the truth. I have not met one person who thinks being critical of Israel is being anti-Semitic. Demonizing Israel, in a one-sided fashion, is another matter. And that, unfortunately, is what the Facist left continues to do. I am amazed at how little history this group knows, or chooses to know. If you had to live in one nation in the Middle East, with open debates, democracy and the rights of women respected, gee, I wonder which one you'd choose?
The Euopean attitude is wrong, stupid and, frankly, anti-semitic.
Today, anti-Semitism is rife in Europe. it is even fashoinable.
Israel ahs had nukes for mroe than 40 years. No one felt that they were going to be awakened by a blinding flash from an israeli nukes. The original intent was to stop russian intervention in 1967. Israel went so far as to make sure the Russians new that Israel had nukes. This was in "Foxbats over dimona" but much of this was known by Israelis back in 1970.
Israel is not a threat to world peace no matter how the europeans vote..
Fair, balanced, and nuanced, this evidence-based analysis accurately deconstructs the foundations of several prevalent misperceptions about Jewish voters.
Both the liberal Democrat Congressional Representatives that I worked for (Henry Waxman, D-CA and Steve Solarz, D-NY) were very Jewish in their advocacy of social justice issues. The old joke in New York City was that Jews lived like WASPS, but voted like Puerto Ricans. It's easy to mock the gap between self-interest and voting patterns, but that narrow perspective ignores the power of idealism and the long memory of historic persecution. Obama seems poised, like RFK, to carry the message that Americans will all win if we can transcend superficial notions of selfish self-interest. The prophetic tradition goes way back, and it behooves the American progressive movement to recognize the danger and ignorance of antisemitism.
wow, well written...As a jewish male. living in a highly orthodox jewish area, I plan to get out and volunteer and help elect Barack Obama! We need him...
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