Bobby Jindal, the Republican Strategists and the Last Battle

In recent weeks, as part of an uncanny attempt to behave as generals fighting the last war, many in the Republican leadership have been floating Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, as the next Republican hope, or even the Republican Obama. The thinking behind this, while not particularly sophisticated, is, at least on the surface, easy to understand. Jindal like Obama is well educated, young and has an attractive family.

These are not, however, the main reasons Jindal is so appealing to many in the Republican leadership who are looking for their Obama. Jindal's personal story and ethnic background are the key to his appeal for Republican strategists. Like Obama, Jindal comes from an immigrant family and can trace his roots to somewhere other than northern or western Europe-in Jindal's case, South Asia. Jindal's personal story also shares the elements of hard work and modest origins, which helped make Obama appeal to many.

Jindal is a long way from being the Republican candidate for president, but his nomination would certainly be a major breakthrough for his party. While having two parties that seek to represent all Americans would be good for our democracy, nominating Jindal would only be a small step in this direction for the Republicans. From a strategic angle, Jindal may be a strong Republican candidate in 2012 or 2016, but if he is it will not be due to primarily to his ethnic background.

Republican strategists should keep in mind that Obama's race was only a peripheral part of his general election success. Obama's connection with African American voters was essential in his efforts to win the Democratic nomination from a well-known front runner who was thought to have a strong base among African American voters. Had Obama not been able to do this, he probably would not have been able to win the nomination. However, in the general election, being African American had very little direct effect on Obama's victory. Had the race been closer, it is likely that the higher turnout among African American voters would have been decisive, but because the election was not particularly close, the only states where higher than normal turnout among African Americans seemed to make the difference for Obama were, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia; and Obama would have won the election even without these states.

Clearly, in some critical respects, the Republican Party is misreading the election results if they think the main reason Obama won was because of race. Equally importantly, Jindal's background would play out very differently than Obama's if he were the Republican nominee. First, South Asians are still too few in number to make an impact at the voting booth comparable to African Americans or Latinos, so Jindal would have to appeal to other groups. It is not clear how Jindal would be able to substantially increase Republican numbers among those African American and Latino voters because of his background, although, in fairness, it would be hard to do worse than McCain with these voters.

For Jindal to help the Republican's chances, then, he would need to help them among white voters, a majority of whom already supports the Republican Party. Jindal would have some appeal among the Republican base, but his personal story would be no more compelling among the Republican base than that of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin or a number of other possible socially conservative candidates.

Essentially, while Jindal will not be able to move a significant number of non-white voters into the Republican column, the Republican hope is that Jindal's presence on the ticket will send a message to swing voters who are largely, but not entirely, white that the Republican party is more diverse than it actually is and thus better attuned to today's America. There is a certain logic to this approach, the problem is that it does not address the more serious problems which the Republican Party, and it ignores the central finding of the 2008 election.

Obama's victory was not just historic because Obama will become our first African American president, but it was also historic because it was a once in a generation defeat of an incumbent party. In this respect, as many have pointed out, the 2008 election looked something like 1932 and 1980, elections which were followed by landslide victories four years later and which ushered in a period of dominance by the Democratic and Republican parties respectively.

The central problem which the Republican Party faces is not that they lack a young, dynamic nonwhite leader but that like the Democrats in 1980 and the Republicans in 1932, they are perceived as having failed and as being out of ideas. In this context, positioning Jindal to run in 2012, based on the notion that he could somehow become a Republican Obama, is more of a gimmick than a serious effort to move the party into the post-Bush era.

Comments

[cbentley]

Quasi-sophisticated analysis of a straw man. Complete destruction of a projected viewpoint.

Though I will agree with you that the Republican Party of today looks very much like Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980.

[djsi]

and Are you kidding me?

a non-white Republican candidate,he'll lose 99% of the GOP base which is pretty much game over before it starts

[djsi]

Same 'ol Party still playing identity politics.

[BarryS]

The repubs aren't "out of ideas." Their ideas don't work. that is the operative statement.

[janmarina]

First of all the ignorance of the American people is beyond belief.Our economic crisis started way back before President Bush.It was created by both parties.Also did we forget Hillary Clinton's involvement in Whitewater The woman is not to be trusted and a terrible choice for any position in the White House.As for Bobby Jindal he is doing a very good job in Louisiana,which with it's political history is a miracle in itself.Get a grip man ,we haven't even got "the black guy" sworn in yet.Please don't take that "black guy" thing in disrespect,but I'm getting tired of the references being made in regards to his skin color.I could care less if the man is polka dotted just as long as he can come up with something new,----and get the American people to go along with it.

[SeanONe]

The republicans are finished. They have been shown to be morally bankrupt and incompetent criminals. Also any hope the US has for the future involves a more educated workforce. Educated people don't vote republican QED.

[goodoldusa]

The Republicans need to stop listening to and following Rush Lynch Mob. He is mental poison. The Republicans need to become inclusive in their thinking and realize that the USA is made up of many types of people - all of them worthy of consideration.

[Dr Eames]

I don't think you should describe someone who is pushing creationism in schools as "well-educated". That's an understatement really.

[j.gold]

Jindal and Palin have the same politics. He just is a smoother talker then she is.

[LilyK]

The Republicans still haven't caught on to what happened this election. Hillary didn't win 18 million votes simply because she was a woman but because she was an incredibly smart, experienced woman with Clinton brand equity -- yet the Republicans -- in their myopic, misogynistic, chauvinistic way -- thought that ANY woman (especially one with great legs) could substitute. Ironically, Sarah Palin appealed to men, not women.

Obama did not win because of his race; he won in spite of it. If the Republicans think that fielding Jindal is the answer to their African-Am­erican/Lat­ino/youth problems, they need to think again. The vaunted "base" wouldn't accept the Mormon Romney; you can only imagine how a Hindu would play. The Republican Powers That Be lump all minorities together. Having lived in Hong Kong, I can tell you that there is no "Asian" vote. Chinese mistrust Japanese; the Koreans are a nation to themselves; and there is no affinity between the Far East and India.

The Republicans lost because of the bankruptcy of their governing philosophy (was there one?) and that they articulated no vision for how to get us out of the mess they got us into. They keep thinking it's about finding the right "type". For Jindal to pull off an Obama-type win, he would have to transcend his Asian heritage, dump the religious/cultural boogeymen, and build a broad-based coalition around new, visionary and pragmatic conservative ideas.

[InTheSouth]

One thing about Gov. Jindal is that he is a right-wing neo-con with the same socially conservative ideas that Palin has. He is VERY catholic and actually wrote in a paper expressing that only catholics should be considered christians. His parents may have been Hindu -- but he is most certainly not. He has had the opportunity for a top notch education but he failed to grasp reality and critical thinking from it. He has signed legislation here in Louisiana to allow science education in public schools to be unconstitutionally corrupted by intelligent design misinformation even though scientists and higher educational professionals, including Barbara Forest (who testified at the Dover, PA trial) pleaded with him and the legislature not to pass it. He is currently about to ruin health care in this state as well. He is totally in bed with the republican party.

[kwijibo]

That's not an accurate portrayal of Jindal.

[mamiel]

That is strange because Catholics are not creationists.

[hangdogit]

"For Jindal to help the Republican's chances, then, he would need to help them among white voters, a majority of whom already supports the Republican Party. "

"White voters" includes a sizable number of white supremacists and others with negative attitudes about non-whites-- and we can assume that such voters overwhelmingly supported McCain because of Obama's contrasting racial identity -- and would balk at anyone who is not, as some Republican ads that were run in this recent election said, "one of us".

Yes, Jindal won in one Deep South state -- but I suspect fairly widespread resistance to him if the Democrats ran a Caucasion candidate against him. While 2008 was a great step forward toward ethnic tolerance, the Jindal candidacy is very much a gimmick.

[doctorj2u]

Jindal himself has said that the Republican Party's message has got to be more than "I am against.....".

[IAM4CLINTON]

I would not equate Gov.Jindal with Gov Palin at all. Jindal is a Rhodes scholar, was head of LA Health Care System at age 24, 2 terms in Congress and now the nation's youngest Governor. The guy oozes intelligence and mastery of facts.
On the other hand, Gov.Palin is just a sensation of the season with no gravitas.
The Democrats will be dismissive of Gov.Jindal at their own peril !

[MrMike513]

No one who pushes intelligent design into our children's science classrooms has a mastery of the facts.

[Spiritgirl2]

Unfortunately, much like Palin, Jindal will be considered a token! The Republican party needs to wake up and smell the coffee. Let us look at exhibit (1) the Democratic Convention vs. the Republican Convention. The democrats were represented by all of America - white, african-american, latino, asian, middle eastern, democrats are people from all over the world - and while we may not always agree, we know that we embrace many of the same values. The republican convention on the other hand didn't have diversity - in essence it was all milk with a few drops of chocolate.

Do the repubs not realize that part of the house cleaning they need to do is: moving religious intolerance from the foreground, stop harping on those dixiecrat politics of fear of other in order to win! No, Jindal may have some similarities with the new President-elect but the republicans have had the reins of government long enough to ruin it!

[harriscrl3]

BIGGEST DIFFERENCE: Obama has broadbased appeal. Jindal is like Palin they appeal to a narrow sect of the party thats NOT a particularly winning strategy.

Obama is a unifter Jindal would need to be a unifier to be the republican's Obama.

Jindal like Palin are GIMMICKS on the surface they look like they are attractive but deepdown the artwork Falls apart

Republicans need to stick with what they do to win DIVIDE that has worked for them part of the reason it failed is because it went up against Obama. If they wait 8 years I'm sure their divisive tactic will work again but purporting that Jindal will be some unifer is like saying Bush cares about most Americans

Carol

Carol