Bobby Jindal, the Republican Strategists and the Last Battle

In recent weeks, as part of an uncanny attempt to behave as generals fighting the last war, many in the Republican leadership have been floating Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, as the next Republican hope, or even the Republican Obama. The thinking behind this, while not particularly sophisticated, is, at least on the surface, easy to understand. Jindal like Obama is well educated, young and has an attractive family.

These are not, however, the main reasons Jindal is so appealing to many in the Republican leadership who are looking for their Obama. Jindal's personal story and ethnic background are the key to his appeal for Republican strategists. Like Obama, Jindal comes from an immigrant family and can trace his roots to somewhere other than northern or western Europe-in Jindal's case, South Asia. Jindal's personal story also shares the elements of hard work and modest origins, which helped make Obama appeal to many.

Jindal is a long way from being the Republican candidate for president, but his nomination would certainly be a major breakthrough for his party. While having two parties that seek to represent all Americans would be good for our democracy, nominating Jindal would only be a small step in this direction for the Republicans. From a strategic angle, Jindal may be a strong Republican candidate in 2012 or 2016, but if he is it will not be due to primarily to his ethnic background.

Republican strategists should keep in mind that Obama's race was only a peripheral part of his general election success. Obama's connection with African American voters was essential in his efforts to win the Democratic nomination from a well-known front runner who was thought to have a strong base among African American voters. Had Obama not been able to do this, he probably would not have been able to win the nomination. However, in the general election, being African American had very little direct effect on Obama's victory. Had the race been closer, it is likely that the higher turnout among African American voters would have been decisive, but because the election was not particularly close, the only states where higher than normal turnout among African Americans seemed to make the difference for Obama were, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia; and Obama would have won the election even without these states.

Clearly, in some critical respects, the Republican Party is misreading the election results if they think the main reason Obama won was because of race. Equally importantly, Jindal's background would play out very differently than Obama's if he were the Republican nominee. First, South Asians are still too few in number to make an impact at the voting booth comparable to African Americans or Latinos, so Jindal would have to appeal to other groups. It is not clear how Jindal would be able to substantially increase Republican numbers among those African American and Latino voters because of his background, although, in fairness, it would be hard to do worse than McCain with these voters.

For Jindal to help the Republican's chances, then, he would need to help them among white voters, a majority of whom already supports the Republican Party. Jindal would have some appeal among the Republican base, but his personal story would be no more compelling among the Republican base than that of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin or a number of other possible socially conservative candidates.

Essentially, while Jindal will not be able to move a significant number of non-white voters into the Republican column, the Republican hope is that Jindal's presence on the ticket will send a message to swing voters who are largely, but not entirely, white that the Republican party is more diverse than it actually is and thus better attuned to today's America. There is a certain logic to this approach, the problem is that it does not address the more serious problems which the Republican Party, and it ignores the central finding of the 2008 election.

Obama's victory was not just historic because Obama will become our first African American president, but it was also historic because it was a once in a generation defeat of an incumbent party. In this respect, as many have pointed out, the 2008 election looked something like 1932 and 1980, elections which were followed by landslide victories four years later and which ushered in a period of dominance by the Democratic and Republican parties respectively.

The central problem which the Republican Party faces is not that they lack a young, dynamic nonwhite leader but that like the Democrats in 1980 and the Republicans in 1932, they are perceived as having failed and as being out of ideas. In this context, positioning Jindal to run in 2012, based on the notion that he could somehow become a Republican Obama, is more of a gimmick than a serious effort to move the party into the post-Bush era.

Comments

[BlueZoo]

Jindal really does appear to be a good man and a change Louisiana was looking for but I can't see his carrying 2012 against an incumbent Democrat. He will need a lot of exposure in the next four years and, in the interim, Louisiana desperately needs him to help that state. I believe he can do far more good in assisting the great people of Louisiana than he can as President. I realize his name is being put forth as a trial balloon right now but the GOP needs to think a bit about why they lost and Obama won before they choose an ethnic candidate who can match Obama.

[StillAmused]

Prediction: By 2012, you won't hear Jindal's name mentioned (unless it's on the list of empty 'heroes' like Rudy, Fred and Sarah who were sure-fire GOP saviors and promptly went down in flames).

The GOP is lost in a permanent infantile swoon, a nightmarish takeoff on American Idol. Image above substance.

[VikingQuest]

"The GOP is lost in a permanent infantile swoon"

LOL . . . you must be a young guy that has never figured out that politics runs in cycles.

[StillAmused]

Nope. I'm an older guy who's been watching for a long time.

There IS no cycle after "spin dry".

[STParker]

tell it to the whigs!

[Republicrats]

No they just need to dump their overly religious tendencies and focus on the core, less govt., less miltiarism, pay down the debt!

[Bitsko]

Good point.

[brooklyncitizen]

Image above substance. That is exactly right. THey are all about branding.

[charleydan]

I see you read little to nothing on the otherside.

Jindal, like Palin, Jeb is smaller government. Transparency of what they are doing, instead of Pelosi record hiding. One example is voice vote.

The problem with limited government is that it is a general term. So what limited means to one is not to another. Or it depends on the agenda one wants. We now find our government in hock to its ears in debt with what every one calls limited government, but big government.

When deflation hits, it will as sure as sun comes up every day. The people will reject the Democratic party and most likely the Republican party. Because they both have spent freely and allowed government to get so big and expensive.

That is what most of these young Republican governors are rejecting is big government versus individual freedoms. This is a far right conservative base beliefs.

[brooklyncitizen]

The Democrats have spent freely?Where have you been?

[Hank007]

Exactly, as the governors are for big government, and not individual freedoms. Except Palin, who also believes in nationalizing the oil industry, in order to pay for welfare for the people.

[Iopine47]

Palin, the debutante Republican, wants to pay for welfare?

[Yarrr]

The subtext that is ALWAYS meant by "smaller government" is "more corporate control".

*Someone* will be in charge of the country. If not the government, it will be private institutions. But conservatives never mention this.

[Republicrats]

The main problem with the repubs is that as the population ages and becomes more dependant on government programs, once repubs voters will turn to dem leaders to help them out. Its all demographics, the repubs have been countering this with their values and moral bs, but it wont' sell in peoria as the pop gets older.
They should stick to a less govt, independence, less taxes, forget the overt religiosity, and stick to the basic tenets of conservatism.

[VikingQuest]

So you are saying that it is a good thing for political reasons to make people dependent on the government with entitlement programs we can't afford?

As people get older, live on their own and get a real job is when they become fiscally conservative because they finally realize money doesn't come on trees (unless you are a welfare case).

[Republicrats]

absolutely not saying its good, just thats what is happening. Some get so rich they can afford to be democrats :)

[BetterDeadthanRedState]

I read the article waiting to hear something, anything, relevant to what should be important to most voters—his positions. In order for Jindal to gain much traction in a national election he would need to have positions closer to the center than where the "jihad" party is currently sitting licking their wounds. Could anyone clinch the GOP nomination with those qualifications? It's doubtful.

Absent any analysis of that, this article is just another slice and dice the electorate by race and ethnicity that we got sick of hearing during the election season.

[SportGirlie1]

so, why would we think the GOP would scratch below the surface on any issue.
for the GOP, any woman will do hence Sarah Palin and now any "colored" person will do.
they are not broad thinkers..­.money and power, any way to get it and keep it will do.

[Republicrats]

nah its just the population is getting older and those once repubs are voting dem to get all of the govt handout that they can...

[Rescisco]

Bobby Jindal's "personal story" does not excuse him or his party from being so out of touch with the stark and pressing realities of the 21st Century. It will not excuse an ideological extremism that ignores basic realities or that has sired the failures we are presently working to correct. And as far as "personal stories" go, count me as totally uninterested in them. The "story" is always a manufactured product designed to divert the informed and obfuscate the issues. Obama's appeal to me was based on issues, ideas, and intellect. I know the "personal story" gibersih is an element in our "American Idol politics," but it is as dangerous to the nation as our casino economy has proven to be. Focus on issues, ideas, and intellect and we will never get "Bushed" again. Focus on the "personal story" and you get moose hunting semi-literate candidates who think Africa is a country. Gawd do I hate this "personal story" bull----!

[Republicrats]

Hmmm... well i guess you are the only one on the planet that dismisses obamers personal story as irrelevant? Are you being totally honest when you claim it was all issues?

[prabbit]

It's Obama. Not Obamer.

[ijgibson]

Not ALL issues, - "issues,ideas and intellect'. The last two at the least have been sadly missing for years. Even the attempt to impeach Bill Clinton for sexual peccadilloes was a diversion from the "issues,ideas and intellect". Had there been any concentration on the issues, then the failure to impeach Bush for his destruction of great chunks of the constitution would have been inexplicable !

If you'd concentrated on "issues,ideas and intellect" we wouldn't now be in this terrible mess and we'd never have permitted the euphemism 'sub prime' to enter the dialogue when a more honest description would have been 'crooked'.

[GSPLBASSDC]

It seems apparent to me that the GOP is looking more at the surface issue rather than substantiv­e....think­ing that American voters are like sheep that can be persuaded into believing anything..­.WRONG!!!

First they trot out Sarah Plain, thinking that all they needed was a white woman to woo the Clinton voters (and we know how well THAT little experiment went), and now they are going to ride the ethnic coattails of Jindal...l­ooking for "the Republican Obama".

Look, if any staunch GOP'ers are reading this, try some original thinking!!

To lead this country, it's not about race nor gender. It's about new, fresh ideas. Obama had them, McCain didn't.

if Bobby runs the "same ole, same ole" Repubilcan campaign, he'll be squashed just like McCain was...mayb­e the Repugs need a few "community organizers" on staff to provide some insight...

[Republicrats]

bleeeaattt! the media was all in the tank for obamer, mccain was an old teleprompter challenged stooge that noboby wanted to see in their living room for the next 4 years! lets see what obamers able to get done, not much i'll bet, although I am all for "inaction" it costs less!

[Openeyes]

Agree entirely, but shhhhhhhh! Don't tell them, let them live in their little fantasy world, it will make winning again in 2012 so much easier.

[Republicrats]

dont' worry as we are taxed in to oblivion with deficits for eternity, the chinese will be running our elections by then anyway!

[BlueIndependent]

The Reps throwing Jindal around as the latest distraction is another example of dishonesty pervading everything their party does. They pander to everyone to get votes for just as long as is needed. They never intend to follow through with anything, they just want your dollars and your purple finger long enough to give them power. In other words, they think the electorate, even those that vote for them, are tools to drive a statistic that gives them control.

Jindal's own problems notwithstanding, the Reps would have a hard case against them even if he won nomination. He'd look like a prop against the sweeping white majority that runs the party, having little diversity to show beyond their incessant touting of Alan Keyes as a legitimate candidate and sign that Reps aren't what they are.

All of this points to the problem with their psychology and worldview. They currently represent the worst of their worldview, and the extremes of their philosophy, that being that humans are inherently evil and are always and ever looking for the next buck to make or way out of responsibility. How fortunate for us they have been made out to be Exhibit A for their worldview. And how fitting they should become the thing their philosophy is built to guard against, what they seek to instill fear about, what they say they intend to guard against.

They sold out to themselves, and found it beneficial to be openly disagreeable, and uncivil in matters of civility.

[Republicrats]

does not every political party pander to widen its base? None are immune to this poitical base instinct, the repubs need focus on core economic issues, less internventionist tendencies, less religiosity, less govt', less less less, less is more!

[live by the golden rule]

An entire "analysis" without a single mention of where Jindal stands on any issue. Don't we have enough of that kind of chattering from the MSM?

[RussellH]

Mitchell's post, to my mind, was to draw ethnic parallels between Obama and Jindal, not policy, that Republicans who see Jindal as their savior in 2012 or 2016 only because of his racial appeal, a "gotcha" moment for fielding a candidate. But at heart, Jindal also represents that "born-again" ethos, the convert to Catholicism from Hinduism, rather than drunken frat boy to Dubya who consults with a higher father to his misfortune. That;s the base they always seek. And, as a good Catholic, he is anti-choice, anti-gay. The only real change from their usual pandering is in the color of his skin.

[Republicrats]

ah bs, there is plenty of us for whom religion is irrelevant, socially liberal, fiscally conservative.

[gevan]

Is Piyush ("Bobby") Jindal Christian enough for the GOP? How can the "Obama is a Muslim" crowd not latch on to the "Jindal is a Hindoo" meme? I doubt that any Primary opponent could resist. It would make Mormonism look mainstream.

[Republicrats]

it would for all of us for whom religion is not a political issue!

[bosse]

Very interesting Indeed. 1. Jindal changed his religion, to accommodate, and find a prty and place to run.
He is a very smart person and should stay in LA and may become a Senator. It is unlikely he will be supported by many Indians like me. A few Drs, among us supported him. Coming from India , many of us of older generation will never understand why we should support Republicans, who are against immigration, foreign aid and integration. Even though we are a minority of the population and most of us are not actively involved in politics only a few of the Asians, will support a Republican. many Hindus will be turned off because of his religion!
Obama did not ask foer votes because of his ethnicity and most of us did not support him because of that either,
We need smart honest people at all levels of government, and if more and more young people will take part in our electoral process, no one is going to care about color creed or religion. In another fifty years or less there will be few that attaend churches. Even the most catholic of communities in Euro

[EasyCheese]

"The central problem which the Republican Party faces is not that they lack a young, dynamic nonwhite leader"

Are you kidding??? Nonwhite is a requirement now???

[siciliabel]

The Republican party can't seem to distinguish between how something is and what it looks like. They see that Jindal's appearance is different than their own and somehow think that that's all it will take to win voters who look different than them. But then, their entire premise is based on the notion that anyone they hope to vote Republican is far less intelligent than those who seek their vote. Why else would they float Sarah Palin as a real possiblity of presidental potential?

[AJATL]

I live in GA, but I grew up in Louisiana, I have been a fan of Bobby Jindal since he first ran for Gov back in 2000. He is a STARK change from a long line of crooked and or incompetent LA politicians. I don't care what color his skin is, or what party he belongs to, he is brilliant and creative, and has already created miraculous change in my home state. In 2000 whites in North LA were afraid to vote for the dark skinned Indian guy, so they got Blanco, then Katrina hit and they saw, hopefully for the last time, that voting for the same ole kinda LA politicians was what was keeping the state in the bad place it has long been. Last in education, last in health, first in corruption and high in crime. I don't know whats in the hearts of Republican leaders, but I know the people I listen to appreciate Bobby for the same reasons I do, and it has nothing to do with his being Indian. Even my life long Democrat parents voted for Bobby because they want better for their state, and we all want better for our nation.

[MarcTravis]

Yeah, Bobby is great for our state, unless you're gay.

[Republicrats]

he should be prompted to stay out of the bedroom and focus on core issues, economy, world affairs, and less govt' intrusion! Get him to see the benefit of keeping the govt. out of where it does not belong!

[AwShucks]

Or unless you live in New Orleans which is the crime capital of the US now.

[Republicrats]

bravo! just the type of voter the opposition needs, forget the sterotype of all repubs overly religious, plenty of us that just want the feds to provide basic services and get out of the way on much of everything else!