Bobby Jindal, the Republican Strategists and the Last Battle

In recent weeks, as part of an uncanny attempt to behave as generals fighting the last war, many in the Republican leadership have been floating Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, as the next Republican hope, or even the Republican Obama. The thinking behind this, while not particularly sophisticated, is, at least on the surface, easy to understand. Jindal like Obama is well educated, young and has an attractive family.

These are not, however, the main reasons Jindal is so appealing to many in the Republican leadership who are looking for their Obama. Jindal's personal story and ethnic background are the key to his appeal for Republican strategists. Like Obama, Jindal comes from an immigrant family and can trace his roots to somewhere other than northern or western Europe-in Jindal's case, South Asia. Jindal's personal story also shares the elements of hard work and modest origins, which helped make Obama appeal to many.

Jindal is a long way from being the Republican candidate for president, but his nomination would certainly be a major breakthrough for his party. While having two parties that seek to represent all Americans would be good for our democracy, nominating Jindal would only be a small step in this direction for the Republicans. From a strategic angle, Jindal may be a strong Republican candidate in 2012 or 2016, but if he is it will not be due to primarily to his ethnic background.

Republican strategists should keep in mind that Obama's race was only a peripheral part of his general election success. Obama's connection with African American voters was essential in his efforts to win the Democratic nomination from a well-known front runner who was thought to have a strong base among African American voters. Had Obama not been able to do this, he probably would not have been able to win the nomination. However, in the general election, being African American had very little direct effect on Obama's victory. Had the race been closer, it is likely that the higher turnout among African American voters would have been decisive, but because the election was not particularly close, the only states where higher than normal turnout among African Americans seemed to make the difference for Obama were, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia; and Obama would have won the election even without these states.

Clearly, in some critical respects, the Republican Party is misreading the election results if they think the main reason Obama won was because of race. Equally importantly, Jindal's background would play out very differently than Obama's if he were the Republican nominee. First, South Asians are still too few in number to make an impact at the voting booth comparable to African Americans or Latinos, so Jindal would have to appeal to other groups. It is not clear how Jindal would be able to substantially increase Republican numbers among those African American and Latino voters because of his background, although, in fairness, it would be hard to do worse than McCain with these voters.

For Jindal to help the Republican's chances, then, he would need to help them among white voters, a majority of whom already supports the Republican Party. Jindal would have some appeal among the Republican base, but his personal story would be no more compelling among the Republican base than that of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin or a number of other possible socially conservative candidates.

Essentially, while Jindal will not be able to move a significant number of non-white voters into the Republican column, the Republican hope is that Jindal's presence on the ticket will send a message to swing voters who are largely, but not entirely, white that the Republican party is more diverse than it actually is and thus better attuned to today's America. There is a certain logic to this approach, the problem is that it does not address the more serious problems which the Republican Party, and it ignores the central finding of the 2008 election.

Obama's victory was not just historic because Obama will become our first African American president, but it was also historic because it was a once in a generation defeat of an incumbent party. In this respect, as many have pointed out, the 2008 election looked something like 1932 and 1980, elections which were followed by landslide victories four years later and which ushered in a period of dominance by the Democratic and Republican parties respectively.

The central problem which the Republican Party faces is not that they lack a young, dynamic nonwhite leader but that like the Democrats in 1980 and the Republicans in 1932, they are perceived as having failed and as being out of ideas. In this context, positioning Jindal to run in 2012, based on the notion that he could somehow become a Republican Obama, is more of a gimmick than a serious effort to move the party into the post-Bush era.

Comments

[girlwild]

From "Gypsy": Ya gotta get a gimmick, If ya want to get ahead!

[RussellH]

Love your allusion, girlwild!!! Maybe he can "bump it with a trumpet?!?!"

[anopenmind]

President-elect Obama paved the way for people like Jindal and all Minorities! Obama's Win has opened the door up for many young up and comers, who now know that it is possible for anyone that works hard, focus's on getting a good education that their potential is truly unlimited!! Of course and then, you have people with an “Unsophisticated” Education like Palin with no fresh ideas that the media loves to promote!! I much rather see the media focus on people like Jindal that are education, diverse and role models that inspire young people to focus on Education, unity and kindness!!

[mrrobinson2u]

Yea...I always imagined the response if a minority woman in politics (with only an undergraduate journalism degree) had been in the same situation.­..and had even answered coherently in a Couric interview.­..still would not have stood a chance.
Say you're a christian and they will follow you blindly...­how scary is that?

[rockerdelight]

If the Republicans insists on thinking that the only reason Obama won is because of his skin tone, they are going to set themselves up for another upset. The problem with them is that the lack of ideas and policies to better the lives of ALL Americans.

I am black and the the problem I have with Jindal is the same that I have with Michael Steele.
They both have these extreme social views- anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage etc. They always appear as the token minorities and Palin-type picks.

I think it was much easier for whites to vote for Obama regardless of his skin color because the Democratic party "look" has ALWAYS included people of other colors, race, religion, and ethnicity. This is a known trait of the Democrats etc so anyone voting for them know what they are getting and they have always featured individuals from these different groups in cabinets and government positions.

[VikingQuest]

"They both have these extreme social views- anti-abortion, anti-gay marriage etc. They always appear as the token minorities and Palin-type picks."

The difference between a personal stance on a social issues and believing there needs to be a law one way or the other is a huge gap, If you can't get by social issues then you are what I would call a "simple voter"

BTW, Obama is anti-gay marriage too . . . does that make him extreme? I think the only thing extreme about a personal position on gay marriage is when we see them storming churches.

[My2Cents]

"Obama's victory was not just historic because Obama will become our first African American president, but it was also historic because it was a once in a generation defeat of an incumbent party. In this respect, as many have pointed out, the 2008 election looked something like 1932 and 1980, elections which were followed by landslide victories four years later and which ushered in a period of dominance by the Democratic and Republican parties respective­ly."

Um, huh? Wasn't the "incumbent party" defeated in 2000? And in 1992? And in 1976? And in 1968? And the "period of dominance" following the 1980 election was 12 years--just one presidential term following Reagan's re-election. The post makes some interesting points, but this argument gets history wrong and doesn't really seem to be saying much. I hope that Obama's election ushers in a "period of dominance" for the ideals he stands for. But there's little reason to think right now that this is inevitable, or even likely.

[Jaradan]

Um, no. Democrat candidates actually won the elections in 2000 and 2004. They were STOLEN by the incumbent party. So the author is correct that it's a "once in a generation defeat".

[Dystopic]

2004 presidential election was not like 2000. Bush "won", but the tatics he used were nuclear in nature.

2000 was awarded to Bush by the Supreme Court (so happy Obama will probable be able to nominate upto 3 SC justices), but the big crime was Gore looking at the small picture instead of the larger pic. Had he lobbied for a recount for ALL of florida, we would not be having this conversation, and would have probably just elected Lieberman.

[vgirl1]

I agree with the writer who said Palin and/or Jindal are being used as scapegoats / place holders by the Republican party (by the way just as McCain was) to run in 2012 with no more hope of winning then than in 2008. All this is being done in a effort to "hold" the spot for Jeb Bush to run in 2016.

The key will be that Americans remember just how tragic both prior Bush administrations were to America (the Savings & Loan scandal during Bush I's reign and the Wall Street / mortgage collapse during Bush II's reign). With those track records, America must be careful to ensure it never again places the stewardship in the hands of Republicans under a Bush!

Repeat after me, Democrats, Independents and Progressives:

No Jeb. Never Jeb. Never again a Bush to ruin America's financial institutions and economic well being.

Amen.

[chrissyatl]

Halleluia!
No Jeb. Never Jeb. Never again a Bush.
You're scaring me with even suggesting the possibility. Aren't we done with them yet?

[Jaradan]

No, we're not because they aren't done with us. People need to realize that the Bushes have been in power for a looooooong time, either publicly or behind the scenes. They don't do short-term strategy. They play to win over the long-term, so while we may think we've won a victory over George Bush Jr., they are probably just biding their time until yet another Bush can come in. If Jeb is defeated in 2012 or 2016, be sure to look out for Barbara or Jenna Bush to throw their hats into the ring when they turn 35...

[denicci1977]

Jindal the Republican Obama ? Hilarious. America will surely agree, just let Jindal add Palin to his ticket for a surefire win. Seriously, they just all need tp go away for about 20 years, maybe indefinitely after hearing the rest of Nixon's tapes last night.

[Dystopic]

They are always looking for the next Reagan, the next Obama, the next whoever.

Republicans hate ideas and intellect, because they lack both.

[Cogitoe]

Jindal, for ideological compatability and his youth vigor, was a favorite of many Republicans for McCain's VP pick, but Hillary's loss opened the Palin "Hail Mary" opportunity to capture disenchanted female voters. The author makes several very good points as to Jindal's ability to retain white voters and expand the Republican's dismal minority base, but he will still be on a short list for future campaigns as either POTUS or VP. Personally, I think a femal Republican governor will have a far better chance of winning the primary next time and it may not be Palin.

[Jimmyboyo]

Jindal's and repubs in general biggest problem is their religous wing-nuttery

All anti-abortion ballot initatives went down hard in defeat with large numbers rejecting the religous right's wackyness.

2006-2008 has seen school boards cleansed of creationist majorities and pro evolutionists put on the boards and the teaching of good science strengthened across the nation.

prop 8 and the Fl rpop etc were pyric victories for the repub religion nuts in that it wasn't them succeding but rather the gay community failing itself. Ca for example saw no reach out to minority communities to such an extent as the leadership ignoring and rejecting help from Black Gay groups that have been around in Ca for decades. 1/3 of registered gay voters not voting at all thinking prop 8 had no way of winning in Ca and no way for Obama a dem to loose Ca (1/3 more gay votes = 1% win for No on prop 8). 1/2 of voting age gay Californians aren't even rgeistered = Ca gays now realize "ground game ground game ground game" = up to 5% win on NO on prop 8

Jindal with his far right religous nuttery = publicly admits to performing an exorc ism!!!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!! and the repubs thinking they need to embrace their nuttery even harder= no hope for them for 2010- till if they ever wake up

[BUTCHER111]

Jindal with his far right religous nuttery = publicly admits to performing an exorc ism!!!!!!!­!!!!!!!!!!­!!!! and the repubs thinking they need to embrace their nuttery even harder= no hope for them for 2010- till if they ever wake up.

He did admit to going to an exorcism. Seems kind of nutty to me.

[pangurban]

The name Bobby worked with R F K but Jindal just does not wear it well, it just makes him seem childlike.

[whataretheysmoking]

i'm originally from india and there's no way in heck i'm voting for this guy who believes the world came into being 6000 years ago. he's the guy who told south asians coming to his fundraiser to dress in western formal gear. embarrassed of your roots, much? gotta impress the bubbas.

don't insult us by projecting him as our icon.

[Jaradan]

Love your ID. So appropriate for this story. :)

The Repubs are still looking at surface politics - like a company marketing a product that sucks. "Throw in a little sexy and we have a winner, people!"

[sonoffestus]

A witch doctor and an exorcist wonder what Billy Graham thinks?
Two great choices...­.........L­OL !

[trisha08]

I think they are all (Palin, Romney, Jindal) being set-up by the GOP until 2016 when their plan is to get Jeb Bush in the White House. Reading this morning that he is "considering" a Senate run in Florida and that the "field will be cleared for him" just confirmed my thinking. He isn't just considering it, it's a done deal. Why else would that spot just conveniently opened up for him. They (GOP) will figure out a way to make sure he wins.

I think the GOP thinks that in a few years, the public will have forgotten about the horrors of the Bush years and will make another go of it. Face it, he meets the GOP criteria: Old white guy from a influencial family....­.errrr dynasty. The Bush family will use their politicial powers to try and salvage the Bush name after W destroyed it. They don't want "W" to be the final chapter in their history.

It may sound bizarre, but it's the GOP we are talking about here----think about it.

[MizLiz]

The GOP will figure out a way to make sure he wins?? Oh yeah, they have a lot of experience doing that -- especially in Florida. If they think we will ever forget what Bush did to this country they don't know the American people very well.

[Jaradan]

I think they do know Americans quite well. We have a short attention span and we don't like to do research into politics. As a volunteer for political campaigns, I learned that the average person on the street dislikes politics and doesn't see a reason to "get involved with it" until Election Day (for presidential elections). When I start seeing large turnouts for midterm elections or when the Deep South can stop voting crooked politicians, I'll have more faith in the American's people judgment or memory.

Remember 1988 when we elected Bush Sr? Then in 2000 when enough people voted for Bush to make the Repubs' theivery look convincing? Only too 8 yrs to forget...

[NYCIC]

Wingnuttery vs. Dynasty. I can't wait to see how this one plays out.

[sixx]

If you thought McCain took a beating wait till you see Jindal on the Republican ticket. Jindal is a smoke screen for the GOP, of bigots and illiterates.

[NewOrleanian500]

The Republicans have been positioning Jindal to run for president for years. There are obviously powerful people into the party who latched onto him and have been managing his career. He is very young, yet has held an extraordinary number of impressive positions which makes him look very qualified. The trick is he never stayed anyplace long enough to really do anything except add to his resume. He is bright, well-educated, articulate, and a Palin-clone in his ideology. This one scares me because unlike Palin, he's not an idiot. The good ole boy rednecks down here faced a tough choice eight years ago when they had to pick between a white woman and a "darky." They chose the woman; after Katrina, when the Republicans ran him again, they went with the dark male.

[kissmygrits]

Their party is ALL gimmicks, from an unqualified woman candidate with anti-woman positions on the issues to 'drill baby drill'... what else do you expect?