Bobby Jindal, the Republican Strategists and the Last Battle
In recent weeks, as part of an uncanny attempt to behave as generals fighting the last war, many in the Republican leadership have been floating Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, as the next Republican hope, or even the Republican Obama. The thinking behind this, while not particularly sophisticated, is, at least on the surface, easy to understand. Jindal like Obama is well educated, young and has an attractive family.
These are not, however, the main reasons Jindal is so appealing to many in the Republican leadership who are looking for their Obama. Jindal's personal story and ethnic background are the key to his appeal for Republican strategists. Like Obama, Jindal comes from an immigrant family and can trace his roots to somewhere other than northern or western Europe-in Jindal's case, South Asia. Jindal's personal story also shares the elements of hard work and modest origins, which helped make Obama appeal to many.
Jindal is a long way from being the Republican candidate for president, but his nomination would certainly be a major breakthrough for his party. While having two parties that seek to represent all Americans would be good for our democracy, nominating Jindal would only be a small step in this direction for the Republicans. From a strategic angle, Jindal may be a strong Republican candidate in 2012 or 2016, but if he is it will not be due to primarily to his ethnic background.
Republican strategists should keep in mind that Obama's race was only a peripheral part of his general election success. Obama's connection with African American voters was essential in his efforts to win the Democratic nomination from a well-known front runner who was thought to have a strong base among African American voters. Had Obama not been able to do this, he probably would not have been able to win the nomination. However, in the general election, being African American had very little direct effect on Obama's victory. Had the race been closer, it is likely that the higher turnout among African American voters would have been decisive, but because the election was not particularly close, the only states where higher than normal turnout among African Americans seemed to make the difference for Obama were, Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia; and Obama would have won the election even without these states.
Clearly, in some critical respects, the Republican Party is misreading the election results if they think the main reason Obama won was because of race. Equally importantly, Jindal's background would play out very differently than Obama's if he were the Republican nominee. First, South Asians are still too few in number to make an impact at the voting booth comparable to African Americans or Latinos, so Jindal would have to appeal to other groups. It is not clear how Jindal would be able to substantially increase Republican numbers among those African American and Latino voters because of his background, although, in fairness, it would be hard to do worse than McCain with these voters.
For Jindal to help the Republican's chances, then, he would need to help them among white voters, a majority of whom already supports the Republican Party. Jindal would have some appeal among the Republican base, but his personal story would be no more compelling among the Republican base than that of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin or a number of other possible socially conservative candidates.
Essentially, while Jindal will not be able to move a significant number of non-white voters into the Republican column, the Republican hope is that Jindal's presence on the ticket will send a message to swing voters who are largely, but not entirely, white that the Republican party is more diverse than it actually is and thus better attuned to today's America. There is a certain logic to this approach, the problem is that it does not address the more serious problems which the Republican Party, and it ignores the central finding of the 2008 election.
Obama's victory was not just historic because Obama will become our first African American president, but it was also historic because it was a once in a generation defeat of an incumbent party. In this respect, as many have pointed out, the 2008 election looked something like 1932 and 1980, elections which were followed by landslide victories four years later and which ushered in a period of dominance by the Democratic and Republican parties respectively.
The central problem which the Republican Party faces is not that they lack a young, dynamic nonwhite leader but that like the Democrats in 1980 and the Republicans in 1932, they are perceived as having failed and as being out of ideas. In this context, positioning Jindal to run in 2012, based on the notion that he could somehow become a Republican Obama, is more of a gimmick than a serious effort to move the party into the post-Bush era.
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The Republican Party likes "tokens" as opposed to genuine soul-searching.
Famous Republican "tokens" and the icons they falsely resemble include:
Clarence Thomas "resembles" Thurgood Marshall (what a farce!)
Sarah Palin "resembles" Hillary Clinton (again, what a farce!)
Bobby Jindal "resembles" Barack Obama (gimme a friggin break!)
These older, white, rich, selfish, bigoted males at the top of the Republican Party really can't think beyond "tokens" because - in truth - they don't want to share the pie; they want it all for themselves, with only crumbs for the minorities their "tokens" represent.
The problem for these has-beens is that the accumulation of these minority group far exceeds the voting power of older, bigoted, selfish whites; meaning the Republican Party is going to remain marginal until these whites die off...
It's not because they don't want to share the pie. It's because they believe they are intellectually superior to everyone who isn't in their little power club. After one convinces him/herself of that, it enables a whole raft of astounding abuses of law, ethics, morals, and logic.
They use gimmicks like the palin because they believe they can trick most of the voters. However, they're really only smarter than the braindead lemmings in the republican rank and file - their "base" - and that's it.
They think the voters are as stupid as they are.....
Not anymore...
Right on.
With Bobby doing his exorcisms and running mate Sarah Palin having her witch doctor in tow, how can they possibly lose?!?!?! -:)
I don't know. I think the vehement anti-idol worshiping stance of that Republican ticket might put it off its fundraising base -- that being the various cults of Mammon that prowl the corporate boardrooms, Wall Street and the lobby of the Capitol Building.
Seriously, though. Color balance and gender equality is just the tip of the iceberg with the problems that are drowning the GOP right now.
Gimmick is right. The republican party now revolves around rascist white males(that wasn't always the case). Billy Bob redneck ain't gonna get out of his pick up, put down his beer and vote for this guy, ain't gonna happen.
the majority of republicians will always vote republican, with the exception of 2008. They could nominate satan in 2012 and they would spin it and support him/her! Look at Georgia as an example!
The Republican Party now stands for the WORST elements of American society: selfish rich people; bigots, ignoramuses, trailer park trash, Appalachian inbreds, and of course religious phonies. The good news is that all of these segments of society are shrinking; meaning the Republican Party is moving further and further towards complete marginalization. I never thought I'd see the day this rabble got blown out of power. It's like a re-run of 1932..... Yahtzee!
I live in Redneckville and the good ole boys around here are not suddenly going to become "enlightened" enough to vote for a non-white candidate.
Token ethnic, token female, all style and no substance. Doesn't matter that both Palin and Jindal believbe in exorcism/witches, creationism, and are Bible thumpers (just what we need, right?). What matters are that Palin is a "rising star" and Jindal will bring blacks and Hispanics into the Republican fold. Also.
Republican leaders think it's all about tribalism and superficial appearance. America doesn't elect leaders based on which ethnicity a candidate is. The GOP is clueless.
That said, I'd love to see a Palin/Jindal ticket. Their platform would be witchcraft purges and exorcisms for everyone. They're the best team for the 15th Century.
A ticket including Jindal and Palin (in either order) would get routed by Obama/Biden or Obama/Clinton; worse that the Goldwater rout in 1964. Bring them on!
There is only one problem with the whole idea of Bobby Jindal having a chance to actually win. When some whites say, "He's not one of us.", they dont just mean blacks. Boddy Jindal will face the same smears and lies about religion and race that Obama did from members of his own party. People who wouldn't vote for Obama because of race and made up other excuses will do the same with Jindal, with his funny name and his skin darker than Obama's. The same whites who put out signs that the colored were taking over and this country was meant to be run by white Christians will say the same about Jindal. Plus he's to the right of even crazy Palin so he will have a time with independents and moderates. Let the GOP put all their eggs in Jindal's basket, it wont matter. They have encouraged this others mentality in their followers and these followers will treat Jindal the same way they did Obama, as a non-white outsider.
Yep! It's like post-Apartheid South Africa: The White minority has finally lost their grip on power; they're shocked and trying all sorts of gimmicks to grab it back. But the genie is out of the bottle, and he ain't going back in - ever again!
Jindal's name isn't even Bobby or Robert. He was raised a Hindu but abandon that religion. He has run away from his ancestory rather than embracing it. The only things he has in common with Barack Obama is skin tone and a fine education. Like Dan Quayle was no John Kennedy, "Bobby" Jindal is no Barack Obama.
It will be interesting to see how the republicans treat him in the primaries.
Jindal is a pathetic answer to Obama. It's like fighting Wal-Mart by reviving Woolworth's. Lots of luck. If Obama succeeds, '12 will be a replay of 1936, and ANY Republican will simply be a sacrificial lamb. If he fails to revive the economy and be a powerful foreign policy leader, of course, Obama will be crucified by the Archie Bunkers who control our politics in OH, PA, etc. And, of course, he will deserve to be.
Success cannot be copied. It must be organic.
All of the GOP lip-service to fiscal responsibility and diversity doesn't mean s**t when they run the U.S. economy into the ground and have a virtually all-white convention; to say nothing of compassionate conservatism raping the average American family; and increasing the ranks of the homeless, impoverished and hungry.
The GOP must change its heart and soul; and after years of flaming the prejudices and animosities of its base, that is a very tough road. My guess is that they will try to gloss over it with sophisticated PR; and by plastering the TV screens with non-white Republicans.
But, as they say, the proof will be in the pudding. With their base continuing to bash minorities, immigrants and anyone else who isn't heterosexual and white, people will realize that the party still is home for the most disgusting, revolting and hateful elements of our society.
The problem with Jindal, is he won in a Louisana election, which that state is notorious for its corruption in elections, can he translate that win to a national one, maybe, but biggest problem would be the racist base of the republican party would go ballistic, and those dixiecrats whom fled the democratic party in 1960's, and their off spring, would never tolerate or vote whole heartedly for anyone of color, this was proven in this last election, with economy collapsed, dollar ruined world wide, recession here, depression on horizon, housing market collapsed, bankrupting wars in middle east, and all blamed on republicans they still got a 49% vote, so many whites just no matter what on the far right will not vote for anyone of color not even for their own economic benefit, so banking a darkie republican candidate is a republican pipe dream! Reality is republicans are split down the middle from the hard right and the moderates, which side wins and dominates depends how they win or loose elections in future, if hard right wins out, they continue to loose, if the moderates marginalize the hard right as democrats have the hard left, they win, but all this remains to be seen and 2012 is a long way away right now, and time will tell!
I think if Obama is better than 45% popular at the first turn (4 years), the GOP will save him until 2016. Jindal is still quite young & dynamic and can certainly wait that long, and the GOP would hate to have him politically damaged by losing in 2012.
If Jindal is prepping for a run in 2016 then that seems like about the right timeline to give the GOP enough time to turn the tide. If he has an eye towards 2012 he can hang it up. Obama was a juggarnaut that swamped the GOP in money and communications capability. Think how formidable he will be with no primary challenger to burn off millions of dollars and Air Force One as his campaign plane. Scary.
All facade, the Republicans. A central point the author fails to mention is the information revolution. Right now, and more so by 2012 or 2016, simply lying about records, positions, previous statements and previous votes will not win a national majority. Hillary Clinton proved this in the primary, and John McCain proved it in the general.
To compete, Republicans would need an authentic, charismatic candidate that can withstand scrutiny and win without having to tell big lies. After a mistake or two Obama learned to presume every utterance is probably taped and all of his history is on tape. The Clintons and McCain stumbled from gaffe to lie to self-contradiction to Macacca moment by thinking it was the 1980's and lies were difficult to check, and no news crew made it safe to spew lies.
Further, Reaganomics is dead forever, so their basic free market blather won't fly in 2016, the wounds of this recession and the bailouts will still be fresh, and the efforts of Obama will be seen as having worked. I am an Obama fan, and do not envy the Republican positions. It will be interesting to see them pass through their wasteland. I frankly doubt they will survive; social liberalism will become the standard and the Democrats will split into two parties on fiscal fault lines.
While I understand the points being made in this article, might I suggest that today's gimmick can easily become tomorrow's "inspirational idea", depending on how it is managed and marketed.
Case in point: the rise (and rise) of Barack Obama.
A much better case in point -- Sarah Palin. Obama has an education.
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