The Republican Race that Wasn't

As the 2008 election recedes into history it is clear that it will be remembered as no ordinary presidential campaign, and not just because of the eventual winner. This campaign, which really began when George W. Bush was sworn in for his second term in January of 2005, or perhaps even earlier when Hillary Clinton announced her campaign for the US Senate from the State of New York in spring of 2000, was eagerly anticipated because it was the first presidential election since 1952 where neither a sitting vice president or president was running.

For the most part, 2008 did not disappoint. The Democratic primary featured a hard fought struggle between two impressive, well-financed and talented politicians. The general election was characterized by fascinating plot developments, surreal cameo appearances by strange characters like Joe the Plumber and obscure historical figures like Bill Ayers, new phrases like "hockey mom", one last round of mid-twentieth style red baiting and ultimately, for those of us who are progressive Democrats, a very happy ending.

There was one part of this election season, however, which was a real disappointment. That, of course, was the Republican primary. For pure theater, the cast of characters seeking the Republican nomination promised perhaps even greater drama than the Democratic primary. The Republican primary had a 1970s style curmudgeonly Cold Warrior, a slick and well-spoken 21st century capitalist, a charmingly reactionary evangelist, a perpetually angry former mayor of New York City whose personal life had been an ongoing soap opera for years, a very thoughtful and serious 19th century Whig, and, for good measure, a conservative southern senator who almost literally came from central casting.

The Republican primary, unfortunately, never seemed to get off the ground and was over before the Democrats really got started. The Republican primary had the feel of a play with a great ensemble cast which got canceled after only a few weeks, or of a Giants-Dodgers game from the 1960s where at the last minute Sandy Koufax and Juan Marichal were replaced by minor league pitchers. Although, the Republicans, believe it or not, probably nominated the strongest candidate of the bunch, the process did not live up to its advance billing.

Interestingly, the Republican primary fight that didn't happen in the first months of 2008, may be unfolding now. As they begin to regroup from their not entirely unexpected defeat on November 4th, the GOP finds itself lacking leadership, vision or new constituencies. The problems facing the Republican Party may be bigger than Sarah Palin's future, Mike Huckabee sniping at his former primary opponents, Newt Gingrich trying to get one last hurrah from his unusual brand of reactionary futurism, and Mitt Romney trying to stay, or perhaps become, relevant. Nonetheless, each of these people represent some of the challenges which the Republicans need to resolve in the next year or two.

This post-election Republican primary will likely have influence on the party for the next several years. The range of possible outcomes is intriguing, albeit in an almost voyeuristic kind way. Sarah Palin's hold on the party faithful is extremely strong, but she has demonstrated limited ability to appeal to voters beyond the shrinking Republican base. She would be a formidable primary candidate, but in a general election, at least in 2012, would probably lose badly. She may be the Republican Party's George McGovern, difficult to stop in a primary, but almost unelectable in a general election.

Tim Pawlenty and a handful of other Republican governors are newly empowered because of the defeat of the Washington DC wing of the party, but nobody from that group has yet emerged as a truly national figure. Rudy Giuliani is exploring a gubernatorial race as well, but his stock as a national figure did not exactly rise during his disastrous campaign for his party's nomination; and he will have to work hard to return as a national figure in his party.

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are probably the two most interesting candidates leftover from 2008, but they represent very different directions and futures for the party. Romney seems something of a reluctant conservative who is much more comfortable discussing free market capitalism and the economy than when mouthing support for far right Republican positions on social issues. Mike Huckabee was one of the early surprises of the campaign whose support seemed to fade away after his stunning Iowa win. Nonetheless, he represents a brand of what might be called far right social policies with a human face. Huckabee's patient, soothing and folksy voice might just make the extreme views of the conservative base more palatable to many voters. In this respect he may be able to build the bridge between the base and the center that Sarah Palin was unable to do between August and November of this year.

Sorting all of this out through the murky mechanisms of governor's meetings, state conventions and other unofficial and semi-official settings will be a difficult and messy task for the Republican Party. Nor is it guaranteed, that this process will resolve anything or succeed in moving the party in a direction that is palatable to a broader range of voters. The Republican Party spent most of the first half of 2008 congratulating themselves for avoiding the proverbial bruising primary, but it turns out the GOP probably should not have celebrated a primary battle narrowly averted because all they really accomplished was putting off an inevitable fight-that and soundly losing a national election

Comments

[chaszz]

On Reagan... when Reagan won, white men without college degrees were 40% of the electorate. They are now down to 19%, because so many more go to college these days. The Reagan formula which depends on these men will not work anymore. The GOP is dedicated to representing a shrinking minority. But sh-s-shh, please don't tell them.......

[Nomccain]

I keep hearing that they (Republicans) need to return to their so called Core values which I suppose is smaller government, low taxes, and less government regulation and a strong military. Well, I can't remember a time in my life when they have adhered to ANY of these so called values. Reagan spent and spent until he throwed us into a recession and left us with a huge deficit and he grew the government greatly. George H.W. Bush did the same thing and then his dubya son screwed the pooch good. He ran up a record federal debt a record trade deficit, depleted our military with 2 wars until he has put the country in real danger at home.. He has borrowed money f rom foreign countries until we are up against it just to pay the interest and he has made us the most hated nation on earth. He has ignored our education needs and let our infrastructure crumble around us. So when you hear their favorite phrase: "We need to return to our core values" just think what they historically are. They're greedy, hypocritical liars. As for "family values", that's BS as well. During Bush's administration, a record was set for indictment's and prosecution of Republicans for everything from molestation of senate pages to corruption, stealing, lying, adultery, and profiteering. So give me a break.

[S1m0n]

The boomers are done with saving for retirement, and they're ready to retire. In other words, the me generation is about to become net consumers of government services for the first time since the seventies. Guess what they're going to vote for now? RIGHT! Government services.

There's no future worth having in the list of old republican core virtues.

[blue42]

i am a liberal democrat that hales from nyc. and i feel like first shirt that there will one day be a republican version of pres obama. i don't see it any time soon but there is someone out there probably still in diapers. who will unite the repub party around solutions and not idealog. but hopefully our country will be a great and humane nation where we won't need him.

[EllaMcC]

If Bobby Jindal were a little more narcissistic, he could be the most formidable of them all. For Pres. Obama's sake, I hope he decides to wait at least 8 years before running.

[hardlyhikin]

The problem for the Republicans is that their only ideas involve free market economics, lower taxes, smaller government and a conservative social agenda. How has that worked for them?

They've deregulated as much of the marketplace as they could, looked the other way at regulations, and ignored policies and laws that worked for years and now we're stuck with an economy that is verging on a 1930's class depression or worse.

They've lowered taxes promising that lower taxes would be an incentive to businesses to create more jobs and everybody would be better off but we've had mediocre job growth throughout the Bush administration and the level of job growth has been negative for most of the past year.

They've loaded the Supreme Court with "strict constructionists" who only think that way when it's in their interests. They've created farce law after farce law ("No Child Left Behind, Help America Vote Act, Medicare Prescription Drug Plan) that have done little or nothing to resolve the great problems that we face.We've suffered eight years of "look out for yourself and your buddies" and con the common people.

When the Republican party begins to respond to the REAL needs of Americans and not just of their fringe wedge groups, they MAY get another look from the American people but it's going to be a long time before most of us trust them.

[CactusTom]

Revenge: How John McCain destroyed the Republican right-wing.

In the 2000 Republican primary the right-wing, Rovian slime machine, in backing G. W. Bush, buried McCain in mud. It took awhile, but in the 2008 presidential race McCain got his revenge. McCain"s attack plan commenced when the normally moderate, independent minded McCain reversed his basic core principles and began kissing up to leaders of the religious right and hugging President bush.

Though the right still did not trust McCain, to make a long story short, with Bush"s popularity in the toilet, they thought they could win with McCain"s broad appeal. But then McCain, by his words and deeds, went about cleverly destroying the faith of his traditionally moderate and independent, and even moderate Republican, base. In picking the Palin gal he knew it would fire up the right, but more importantly it would kill off support of the American political center (his real strength) that had come to see the Republican right as having taken the nation down. Then in the presidential debates with Obama, he went out of his way to act in strange ways designed to further alienate large numbers of voters, while certain members of his team began leaking nasty things about Palin meant to irritate the Republican right.

Via his kamikaze presidential campaign, McCain has caused the right-winged controlled Republican party to become a fringe party for years to come. Mission accomplished!

[Emlyn]

I don't think that John McCain destroyed the Republican Party - I think it was already destroyed.

[NicoleW]

It just may be that the smartest republicans opted out of running in the primaries becuase being a republican in this election was a sure betcha loser becuase the country was sick of Bush and the republicans. I was amazed how quickly the primaries ended. Interestingly, McCain had a long time to campaign before the election and if he had a message to get out, he might have been more successful. I am very disappointed with the rhetoric and support during the campaign for Palin by other GOP'ers. It proved to me that it was not country first, but all about winning. I will not support this years top liners because of their support of Palin as it proved to me their lack of integrity just to win. 2012 is a long time away and I am sure there are bright intelligent stars out there, if not for 2012 than 2016. Palin and her ilk are not one of them. Romney turned into a yes party man, along with Huck, and Thompson and Giuliani. Their disingenuous during this campaign, I hope handicaps any of them successfully running for anything again.

[FirstShirt]

Prior to the convention that nominated Kerry, Barack Obama was an unknown state senator.

Out there is a smart and fast moving new republican who will step up.

[Pupadup4oBama]

I guess maybe in your dreams perhaps.
This is the real world (and I don't mean an MTV show)

[FirstShirt]

So it is. In Indiana Obama won as a democrat for the first time since 1964. Clearly republicans voted for him.

Also, the republican governor was re elected for a second term with 58% of the vote. And a new republican attorney general was elected. And every republican incumbent was reelected.

As you say, this is the real world.

[peterkatona]

During the dark days for Democrats of 2002-6, did anyone see Obama coming? Of course, you're right, FirstShirt. Anyone who believes this is the end of two-party politics - that there is invincibility on one side or another at any point - is daydreaming. And that's ok! I am rooting for Obama's success, because I am rooting for America. But disagreements are good- and a champion for an opposing cause is always waiting in the wings.

[FirstShirt]

"During the dark days for Democrats of 2002-6, did anyone see Obama coming? "

I am a conservative republican and say so proudly. No party or person has cornered the market on perfection.

And, I support our new President without qualification or hesitation. It was a good fight. The people spoke. So be it. I hope we will find our own Obama. My point is that it can happen.

[IgIzBliss]

No, there isn't one waiting in the wings, because Reagan's Conservative Coalition has too many factions. Demographics are clear about this: who can unite young voters, tech issues, women's votes, global warming, diversity, pragmatic vs. foreign policy hawks that brought us Halliburton, Blackwater, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, and Iraq (although Afghanistan's justified), the anti- and intellectual wings of the party, social conservatives holding onto wedge issues for dear life, race-baiting white supremacist proponents of Nixon's Southern Strategy, fiscal conservatives who just brought us a collapsed now socialized economy & banking sector the worst since the 1930s--and we still haven't hit bottom yet, AND A PARTRIDGE IN A PEAR TREE???????????????????????????????????????!

The wrong Right's mean-spirited attack alleges President-elect Obama is "not the Messiah," but the savior of the GOP would TRULY need to walk on water to knit all these factions together. There can no longer be a single person who solves for all these challenges of message, and to win, Obama rewrote the playbook simply by staying on message--and then running the gauntlet of hate and fear mongering too, just to get elected. Don't underestimate the power of biography either, because Obama's singularly prepared him to speak to so many different coalitions, to forge an uber-coalition of allied interests, expectations notwithstanding. But a person would have to be schizophrenic to do this with all the polar oppositions that are bedrock principles of the GOP. Not gonna happen.

[FirstShirt]

You mentioned Reagan. Must have been a Freudian slip. Reagan came on the scene and united factions of the democratic party that weren't being represented by the liberal wing of the democratic party. So, just as republicans crossed over to vote for a "change" candidate in Obama, democrats did for Reagan.

To suggest that there could be no "Reagan" or another republican "Obama" is just wishful thinking and not very sophisticated.

It is a hypothesis. But a hypothesis born out by the success of Obama himself.

[peterkatona]

A so-called bruising and long primary fight in 2008 would not have put off the current fight for the soul of the Republican party. It seems to me the GOP had no choice but to nominate the one man who stood a chance against whoever the Democrats nominated, and that was John McCain. Of all things the GOP has done wrong, not having super-delegates is not one of them. Had the Republican primary been as long and close as the Democratic process, the eventual nominee would have had an even more fragmented party in a year conservative voters were far less forgiving or desperate for their party to win than the Democrats. A politically injured McCain (or Romney or Huckabee) would have performed even worse than McCain did - and they'd be right back where they are today.
Let's not forget that in a year the GOP had nothing going for it, McCain kept it relatively close and even took a lead before the financial crisis became Story One- and even after, he was not trounced. Only McCain could have kept it close.

[FirstShirt]

It was a democratic year but I say that with respect.

Obama won fair and square and republicans lost. It is the way things must be and is the strength of our system.

So while we republicans rend our clothes in anguish, we will see another brighter day and the lessons we have learned will make us more responsive to the american people.

That's the way it is supposed to be.