Why This Election is So Close
Even the most cynical reader of polls would have to agree with the basic finding that this race is going to be very close. Assuming that is the case, and there is little reason not to assume that, this will be the third straight election which could be described as very close. This is all but unprecedented in American history. With the possible exception of 1880-1888 where all three elections were close in popular vote, but less so in electoral vote, it is difficult to find even two elections in a row which were as competitive as the last two elections or as competitive as this election is likely to be.
This finding is more than just a quirk of history, but it tells us not only something about where our country is politically, but also about what is going on in this presidential race. Supporters of Obama and the Democrats in general, have long expressed frustration with how close this race is. The mortgage crisis, and now the larger economic crisis, the ill-conceived, to say the least war in Iraq where, the surge notwithstanding, victory still seems a distant and poorly defined target, the broader issues of corruption and incompetence which have characterized the Bush administration all suggest that this should be a relatively easy Democratic year.
The reverse argument could have been made about the 2000 campaign where Al Gore, running as the sitting vice-president, should have won handily given the strong state of the economy and the absence of any divisive foreign policy issue such as an unpopular war. However, as we all know, things didn't quite work out that way. The election came down to a bizarre series of events which eventually were resolved with George Bush winning. It is easy to overlook, amidst the chaos and controversy regarding Florida, that the 2000 election never should have been that close. It is hard to find an election in modern history where the incumbent party did not win decisively in such good times as 2000, just as it is difficult to find an election in recent history where the incumbent party did not lose badly when faced with an economy and foreign policy environment such as the one we now face.
Efforts to explain Gore's defeat and Obama's failure to break this race open, particularly among frustrated progressives -- a group to which I also belong, often focus on short term explanations such as Gore's wooden campaign style and failure to use President Clinton effectively in the last few weeks of that campaign, or the attempts by Republicans to suppress votes and tamper with the outcome in Florida. Today the failure of Obama to open up a bigger lead is often attributed to latent racism, his choice of Biden over Clinton as his running mate or his failure to hit back at John McCain.
While there are certainly elements of truth in all these explanations for both of these elections, they obscure two bigger picture developments that help explain why this election and the last two have been so close. The first is that economic uncertainty, particularly among the middle class has become a constant in American life over the last two or three decades. While economic times certainly were better during the Clinton years than during the Bush years, many middle class Americans were still worried about their economic futures, paying off debts, lack of good healthcare etc. Similarly, the last Democratic administration before Clinton did not exactly usher in economic good times. Accordingly, many Americans while frustrated and scared about the economy no longer see the economy as something which a president can fix. Therefore it becomes less salient in their vote choice.
Voters are scared about the economic future and when pushed a majority probably recognize that Obama would be a far more qualified and competent president on economic matters than McCain, but this does not mean that voters think Obama can make the economy sound again. The notion that the issues are too big, too global and too complex for any president to resolve is a natural conclusion for many voters; and they are probably right.
The second development is that because we now have ideological parties, and ideological voters in the US, voters rely less upon their evaluation of the performance of the incumbent party and more on voting for the party with whom they share opinions on a range of issues. A half century ago, both parties had strong liberal and conservative wings and often nominated centrist candidates for presidents, thus obscuring ideological differences and making it natural for voters to rely more on a retrospective approach to voting. This is no longer the case.
Not only are today's electorate and parties more divided on ideological lines, but the country is split roughly evenly on these issues with only a small number of people truly in the middle. In this context, as long as each candidate can mobilize their party's base, presidential elections are almost guaranteed to be close. Obama solidified his base early, but even then could not open up a big lead, because voters who were not yet sold on McCain still were not eager to support a liberal Democrat. For these voters, ideology was more important than evaluations of the incumbent administration. In recent weeks, all the noise about Palin notwithstanding, all she has done to help McCain is solidify her party's base thus ensuring another extremely close race.
This ideologically driven and deadlocked electorate means that this election will not just be decided in a handful of swing states, most of which, were also decisive in 2004 and 2000, but that the same types of swing voters in these swing states will determine the next president. While turnout will be important, it will probably be high on both sides due to the closeness of the race and excitement about Obama on the Democratic side and excitement about stopping Obama on the Republican side. This election, which in many respects is like no other in American history, is turning out to look quite a bit like two others, at least in terms of voting patterns and is likely to come down efforts to persuade the same fraction of a fraction of the electorate as in 2000 and 2004.
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Could a TV ad using this script either change minds to vote for Obama or persuade Republican voters to stay home?:
John McCain signed onto veto-proof legislation in 1999 that ended the regulation of banks and financial services that had been in place since 1933.
The bill had Phil Gramm's name on it, and he advises John McCain on financial matters for his campaign to be America's next President.
The vote was strictly along party lines, with Republicans pushing through break-through legislation that ended the previous prohibitions on banks selling securities that included millions of risky mortgages they wrapped up as investments for your retirement accounts.
They want these risky investments to be part of your Social Security retirement.
Now look what's happened.
Billions and billions of dollars in bailouts, and that's just this week alone.
The Republicans game our financial system-
they game your retirement investments-
they game public education-
the health care system...
they game our future for the massive profit of a very few powerful friends.
Sara Palin and John McCain are more of the same Republican game.
America: Don't be Fooled Again.
I Barrack Obama took the third largest campaign contribution from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. My VP choice took the second largest amount from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. By the way, when John McCain was looking for a co-sponsor for a bill to reign in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, I originally agreed to co-sponsor the bill but eventually much like everything else I withdrew my support when I realized I would be in direct conflict with the Congressional Black Caucus. Further, AIG is in trouble because of there stake in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mac. I Barrack Obama approve this message.
What you are referring to in your pretend "I Barrack Obama approve this message" is politics. The same, usual Washington political game of back scratching. That is not going to end because of either candidate.
What the Gramm, Bliley Leach act did was lead to the most massive need for a government bailout ever in United States History, and that is entirely the result of Republican "free market" ideology.
That is a far more significant issue for voters to consider in this Presidential election than Obama and Biden enabling Mea and Mac like all the other political back-scratchers.
The reason this election may seem to be close is a direct reflection of our failing education system as a whole, over the past years. The "dumbing down" of America has been a success in part, due to lack of reading requirements, as an example, and teacher,s with their hands tied behind their back by Administrstion and the Courts. Therefore the uneducated masses can't think for themselves, and have a tendency to vote for the likes of Bush(a failure in his own right), and now consider the "bottom of the class" McCain/Palin ticket, for no particular valid reason Even a tad of common sense would indicate this would be catastrophic.
Hopefully America will be blessed with a President and Vice President of wisdom, experience, reason, integrity, education and common sense.
Our election process needs major reform, Black Box voting machines need be placed in the manufacturing hands of non-partition and non-profit cooperatives that develop software standards and open source code that also required to have a paper trail. Another major reform could be using non-partisan software to systematically draw congressional districts as physically SQUARE and possible. This would end the 95% incumbency retention which would also reduce the negative running to the base effect that the current ridiculous gerimandering safe districts on both sides now causes.
This campaign isn't close. McCain is so far in the lead, Obama is desperate. The news media is biased, and the polls are doctored to fool the American public.Any
Racism -- excuse the pun -- is not a black and white issue. Most Americans might not be overt violent KKK-style racists, but there's a big gap between that and feeling totally uncomfortable and unbiased about pulling the lever for a black president.
Would, for example, all white Americans be color-blind while choosing a black banker, black financial adviser, black family doctor, over a white banker, doctor etc? That's the confidence needed for people to actually go out and vote for someone -- and that might not be there.
And, of course, race is not the only issue. Many people like McCain for other reasons, too.
I think this race is very close, and that the Obama/Biden camp cannot be overly confident.
I've written about subtle, sub-conscious racism in the place where I grew up -- a lovely, open-minded place, but somewhere where the currents of race issues were still palpable.
It -- plus videos of both McCain's recent 'let's blame the economic crash on two black men' ad, plus a clip of Obama's seminal speech on race -- are here:
http://joy
Senator Obama should stress his Democratic credentials, forget change and go for change back to the good times of Clinton and Kennedy. He can do this by bringing Bill Clinton on board and making a joint tour. Republican hate Clinton, but Democrats love him. Independents can be reminded that America was "up" during his administration.
When the right wing rips Clinton and Democrats generally, they are just doing their thing. The idea is to circumvent them, not play along.
It behooves the candidate running against the incumbent to praise change, but that package includes "inexperie
When Obama looks more like a lone wolf, he looks less qualified.
Bill - I agree with you. Although I am in what is a formerly a staunch Repub county - DuPage, outside of Chicago, I am still mystified by some of my suffering neighbors, who continue to be blinded by I -don't-know-what, to what is happening. Our neighborhood is filled with foreclosures and people who are having a hard time making it, yet they still don't see a need for a "fundamental" change of direction. As a very long time Federal employee, who has NEVER seen us in such a horrible, horrible mess, I am truly scared for all of us that they cannot see what is right in front of their faces. If they are so put off by the tint of someones' skin rather than the rant of the tired old scared-tactic philosophy, we are in serious trouble.
This election is no way close and here is a scientific model that predicts an Obama landslide,
http://www
don't think for a second that the election won't be stolen again to maintain the white man's establishment. that is precisely why mainstream polls consistently show a tie btw the two candidates.
Most likely its due to the fact that America is a right leaning country. On election day the "silent majority" show up at the polls. The white, religious traditionalists. Older people tend to vote Republican in large numbers.
The silent majority are going to be the ones who decide the election. They are the ones who aren't politically active, but just show up and vote.
Despite people saying the youth vote is going to be huge, history shows thats not the case. The youth vote would have to be unprecented, along with the minority vote. And if you look at the data for voters in past elections, you'll see the numbers are fairly small.
I can't believe Americans are right wingers. Most people seem decent and compassionate. There seems a deep distrust of "politicians," but the voters want to do whats best. Check out the posts here; they're all about how wimpy the Democrats are. Yet, you can zero in on particular Democrats and find a pugnacious public servant. The current Congress opened its season with a list of objectives that have been somewhat passed. I don't blame them so much for the continuing war since the Republicans who have been touting their successes since day one are making their case again as the military avoids confrontation and loses fewer lives accordingly: This was always a possibility and it is politic to do it now. Do you really think American Generals don't know how to play these political games!
There is a difference between right wingers and someone who leans to the right. The same way there is a difference between a far leftist and someone who leans left. I think that distinction is very important. Its actually why Bill Clinton won the White House. Because he was much more in the center than Obama is. I also believe thats why the polls are even right now. McCain is seen as much more bipartisan than Obama is. Most people tend to gravitate to the center.
Great Reply
No, the reason why this election seems so close is that the same people who will fix the election in November are doctoring the polls as we speak.
I read a piece at the end of the primary that reached a similar conclusion. The authors pointed out that political victories in the US are easily anticipated by voter demographics. They pointed out that Obama's loses to Clinton in Ohio and Pennsylvania voting were easily predictable because of the demographic, and predicted that there would eventually be a democratic victory because the demographic is changing. In deed, they predicted that Obama would win because of the demographic shift now taking place.
Public conversation now includes two groups here-to-fore mentioned only from an outsider's viewpoint. We have begun to listen to women and blacks with more earnestness than I've ever seen before. Albeit nascent, these discussions are marvelous and invigorating.
Complain as some may, this election cycle has been the most extraordinary!
http://www
Obama's VISION with The Pointer Sisters'
Yes We Can Can.
I don't know. I think the race is over and BO beats McCain pretty handily. The negative ads McCain is running are weak and (for once) actually making him sound like a whiner. Most of the right-wing base probably love them but I think they're not moving any undecideds into his court. The economy is killing the right. Blaming democrats in congress and Bill Clinton hasn't been working either. The economy is in a horrible state and the next POTUS is going to have his hands full and most don't think McCain is up to it (not to mention he seems very tired and unfocused here in the stretch).
The debates are next. If BO even seems a little presidential (worst case) than the victory is his. Biden should hammer McCain during his debate and let Palin try to defend him. As I mentioned McCain seems sleepy and lost lately. If he's like that at the debate (or God forbid he goes off on one of his angry moments) than BO wins.
Everyone needs to get out and vote come election day. Democrats are doing a great job registering new voters. If most show up at the polls (and BO does good in the debates) then it's over. I don't feel there's any way McCain can pull it off -unless there's another 9/11 but even that (pray it doesn't happen) may make Bush and Co. look like they were caught with their pants down... again
there is a lot of ignorance and many people continue to support mccain despite these trying economic times. they believe the lies he's been spewing out and don't research either candidate's position. I've found that even UT college kids here in TX are ardent in their support for McCain, because their parents support him. They regurgitate the same crap that McCain does and what I find troubling, yet intriguing is that they actually believe what is coming out of their mouths.
Oh please this election is not as close as they would have you believe Obama is going to win this and win big..the issue is will all the votes be counted I think the GOP would like for you to think this election is going to be close so that they can flip the votes
The facts are Gore won the election..
Obama needs to be prepared for the cheating and ready to make sure that all votes are counted after the election and that people will be charaged.
See Paul Peete's Profile
The cell phone generation is never polled, and the unravelling of our financial markets impact is still playing out. McCain's camp is using scorched earth desperation now and this to mask McCain's culpability in the whole deregulation craze.
The Straight Talk Express is the now the StraightJacket Express. America will reject this lunacy because Money trumps Race and we need solutions for our economic life now. No one will trust a man who from Keating forward was on the take.
http://www
Sorry, but you're wrong. I've been polled on my cell phone, as have 3 of my co-workers. I know people like to say that "its the younger generation who use cell phones," but you might want to take a look around next time you go out. The majority of people over 30 DO have cell phones.
Also, if you look at polling sites like Gallup, Hotline, etc, you will see that they do indeed poll people via landline and cell phone.
Here is a quote from Gallup's site on how they conduct their polling interviews:
"Survey Methods
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general election results are based on combined data from Sept. 18-20, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,720 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only)."
This election is close purely and simply because of stupidity and racism. I hate that it's that way, but I know when to call a spade a spade...
The Repos have put up with the likes of Condiii Rice and her failures so why would they suddenly became racist ? The bigger question is how anyone with a lick of sense could think of the last eight years and vote for a continuation for another four years. The media has been manipulating every thing we read so why wouldn't they create a false urgency through the polls to keep the campaign revenue coming into their hands. Election season is their Christmas and it only comes every four years. The media is not trustworthy any more, but it is not stupid.
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