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Lincoln Mitchell

Lincoln Mitchell

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Will We Have Another Election With No Discussion of Jobs?

Posted: 04/27/11 09:39 AM ET

The financial crisis, which led to the recession from which the U.S. still has not recovered, began after the 2008 presidential campaign was well underway. Some have asserted that the economic crisis played a key role in President Barack Obama's election. This is something of an overstatement. While the crisis, and the recession that followed, helped the challenger, Obama was the clear frontrunner by late summer of 2008. Other than John McCain's surreal and brief suspension of his campaign allegedly to devote his attention to the crumbling economy, the recession played a relatively small role in the 2008 election as much of the storylines around the two candidates, such as the historic nature of Obama's campaign and the widespread frustration with the Bush administration, had been established by the time the economy took its sharpest downward turn.

President Obama took office at a time when addressing the problems caused by the recession was the paramount issue facing the American people, after running a campaign that for the most part was focused on a nebulous notion of change. Perplexingly, much of the attention paid to the fallout of the economic crisis was oriented around the finance sector, rather than on jobs, which was, for many American citizens, the biggest issue facing their communities following the economic crisis.

Jobs were, therefore, not a major focus of the 2008 campaign, but given the relatively high, and stable, unemployment numbers since Obama took office, one might expect jobs to be a major part of the 2012 campaign. As the 2012 election approaches, however, is it becoming very likely that another presidential election will occur without a strong emphasis on jobs. This is quite extraordinary given the relatively high unemployment rates and widespread concern over jobs and joblessness.

It is obviously in the interest of the American people for jobs to be at the center of the upcoming presidential election. If both candidates, and parties, focused on job creation during the campaign, offering competing visions to address the issue of job creation, than the issue that dominates the lives and outlook of many Americans would get the attention it deserves. A campaign in which joblessness is viewed as a central problem that needs to be addressed is not likely because, while it may be what the people want and need, it does not help either of the major parties, or their likely, and in the case of the Democrats, all but certain, nominees.

If the economy turns around and starts adding jobs in substantial numbers, pushing the unemployment rate below 6 percent for the first time since before the economic crisis began in earnest, President Obama will be able to tout a tremendous success story and will be reelected easily. This, however, is extremely unlikely to occur. It is far more likely that the unemployment rate will remain at or around 9 percent, as it has for most of Obama's presidency. In that scenario, Obama will have almost no incentive to emphasize jobs in his campaign because the emphasis would do little more than underscore Obama's inability to solve this extremely pressing problem during his first term.

Obama's incentive for campaigning on issues other than job development, barring a genuine economic recovery, is clear and not unreasonable. The Republicans are likely to focus on issues other than jobs for a different set of reasons. For the Republicans, the economic crisis and the recession that followed was never really seen as being primarily about jobs, unemployment or the economic grievances facing ordinary people in the U.S. Instead, Republicans saw the recession as yet another example of the problems of big government and made deficits, rather than jobs their primary concern.

The Republican job creation strategy in 2012 will likely be the same as what it has been for most of the last several decades -- more tax cuts for the richest Americans. This, according to Republican dogma, will lead to businesses magically creating more jobs. It is not clear that even most Republican candidates believe this anymore, but because there has never really been an alternate Republican job creation plan, it is likely that the party's candidate will simply focus on other issues, like the debt and creeping socialism.

The likely absence of any meaningful, or even less than meaningful, discussions of jobs and job creation during an election that will probably occur in the middle of a prolonged period of widespread unemployment is a good indicator of the problems of the political system and of the disconnect between political elites and the citizens they claim, or seek, to represent. It also suggests that, at least at the elite level, there is a growing acceptance of widespread unemployment, as few believe anything can be done to bring these jobs back. This might be the worst election news of all for the American people.

 
 
 

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The financial crisis, which led to the recession from which the U.S. still has not recovered, began after the 2008 presidential campaign was well underway. Some have asserted that the economic crisis...
The financial crisis, which led to the recession from which the U.S. still has not recovered, began after the 2008 presidential campaign was well underway. Some have asserted that the economic crisis...
 
 
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07:34 PM on 04/29/2011
I don't see our political system as it exists fixing this problem. What we are doing is really following China, with an urban elite who have work and money, and the rest of the country impoverished and living in subsidized housing-providing a base for the military to choose from. Check out the docu "Crime and Punishment" made by a dissident to get an idea of the type of widespread unemployment and decay many cities are in-which matches the level of dystopia found in Mao's China.
I see freedom really be threatened-though I'm not a tea party fan...
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MrMainstreet
10:14 AM on 04/28/2011
The key to creating and retaining jobs in the United States is for us to elect candidate that will attack our tax structure and trade agreements. If we continue to allow corporations to sell their products here without taxing their profits because those products are made overseas they will never create jobs here.
If we continue to allow multi-nationals to create products overseas using slave labor and outside of envoirnmental regulations and sell those products here they will never create jobs here.
Im not saying that multi-nationals cant manufacture overseas,im just saying they cant manufacture overseas and sell here without tariffs and taxes being applied to their goods.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alafonse
It's definitely a crap-shoot.
08:11 AM on 04/28/2011
I sincerely believe that a real key to jobs is the creation of state-owned banks. Get the money back into the states, where the money will be spent on the people and businesses in that state, instead of in the hands of international bankers who don't give two cents for us. Eight states are currently pursuing the idea of starting up state-owned banks. A glowing example of the success of this is North Dakota, where there have been state owned banks since before the depression.
http://motherjones.com/mojo/2009/03/how-nation’s-only-state-owned-bank-became-envy-wall-street
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
alafonse
It's definitely a crap-shoot.
08:15 AM on 04/28/2011
That link did not come through, here's another one:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/16/bank-of-north-dakotasocia_n_463522.html
Linda from Deerfield
Paying attention
11:06 PM on 04/27/2011
I like to precede any criticism with a quick internal check -- do I know what I myself would do and why it is better. In the case of job creation, it is not so easy. Some economists give answers that are dishonest -- they have seen their experiments through and the results are in -- their theories don't work. Some economists understand how to stimulate the economy in a way that is costly and that works in the short term but not in the long term. I haven't noticed any other economists offering answers. The Republicans are screaming that we can not be allowed to spend money to create jobs. Therefore, there is nothing left to do unless somebody can figure out something really creative and new. I've been trying and failing. I haven't heard anybody else even try.
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
realitytrumpsbull
two 'alves of coconut!
09:32 PM on 04/27/2011
I don't care if 'the rich' hire anyone or not, it's their prerogative to do as they please in the management dept., my question is whether the scarcity of jobs and the reality of benefits and so forth running out will result in some out of the box thinking on housing. To wit: Campgrounds. Be it ever so humble, a tent or a trailer keeps the rain out. What's more, you could charge dirt-cheap rates, necessitating less in the way of govt. subsidy to keep body and soul together, which is what it's really all about, not using the unemployed as indirect government disbursement agents to prop up an overpriced real estate and rental industry. Somewhere in there, adjustments need to be made, in this overpriced con game of an economy that we live in.  Otherwise, you have millions of people, that are just plain screwed, period, up a creek, with no paddle, that kind of thing. It's gotten nasty out there, very competitive, people just looking to pay the monthly bills, nothing fancy.
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Robert SF
12:21 PM on 04/28/2011
Yes, they're called "tent cities," and all the better Third World crapholes have them. They spring up spontaneously, like mushrooms after the rain. Don't worry -- we'll have them here soon enough.
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spinotter11
Spinning through life and trying to understand it.
04:30 PM on 04/28/2011
Every city of any size has them now. Portland Maine has one. Where have you been?
08:15 PM on 04/27/2011
Trust me it will be about jobs - new jobs (finding work) for the current crop of politicians on the public dole. Pay attention to what they do and ignore what they say and ask are you as well off today as before GWB? or Reagan? If the answer to that is no then remember that and vote.
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nkurland
I'm going to leave this planet alive
07:53 PM on 04/27/2011
Isn't it incredible that our poltical elite can claim "we're broke" to avoid a jobs bill, yet simultaneously pump $600 bllion into the financial industry to allow them to snatch up public assets and inflate currency bubbles in emerging markets?

There's plenty of federal funds available for the wealthy, far more than they could ever need. The problem is, economics has become a zero sum game. It doesn't matter how many people suffer, or whether the results being promoted or the model being touted is actually sustainable. The only thing that matters is whether or not the policy cuts into the bottom line or quarterly profits.

The same goes for government spending; if it promotes short term profits, then it gets funded. If its a matter of concern to future generations, like health care, infrastructure or green technology, it gets ignored. Our entire system depends on a perpetually increasing system of graft and corporate subsidies. That's a problem.
06:57 PM on 04/27/2011
Neither party wants to address the issue of unemployment and joblessness. The GOP doesn't want to address it because they have no more idea of what to do about it than the Democrats. They don't want to assist those who have run out of benefits in a job environment in which there are simply NOT ENOUGH jobs for all those looking for work. The Dems don't want to admit that the unemployment rate is a lie and a travesty, because it does not take into account those who have fallen off the rolls, those who are underemployed by taking part-time jobs when wanting/needing full-time, and those having been forced into minimum wage jobs that do not pay a living wage for an American family. Nobody is addressing the issues of not enough jobs, no one is addressing that people are losing everything they have worked for all their lives, have gone through their savings, have no health insurance, are losing their homes, their cars. Our country and our Govt should be ashamed; but they're too darn busy politicking.
06:43 PM on 04/27/2011
Neither party has magic wand.
06:42 PM on 04/27/2011
I would disagree that the elite do not believe there is anything that can be done to bring jobs back to america. Rather they are unwilling to do what it would take to do so as there are two ways americans earn wealth.

There are those who earn wealth from capital management and flows and advising those processes. The current world order benefits them greatly.

Then there are those whose worth is determined by the output value of their labor and that value is determined in a complex global equation where they are in direct comeptition with sweat shops in china india and elsewhere.

Actions taken to benefit the second category of wealth earner and create jobs for average and the majority of americans will decrease the wealth generation and accumulation ability of the first class of wealth generators. Even though such changes would minimally impact that ability they are unpalatable to the elites who live and profit off serving that top category as the high paid intellectual servants.
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SoylentGreenIsPeople
Hmmm........Tastes Like Chicken !
06:24 PM on 04/27/2011
Democratic politicians have conceded economic issues. The only fight on social issues. Notice how fast they jump. Let me give you an example of economic issues.

Boston Massachuse­tts,
House lawmakers voted overwhelmi­ngly last night to strip police officers, teachers, and other municipal employees of most of their rights to bargain over health care, saying the change would save millions of dollars for financiall­y strapped cities and towns.The 111-to-42 vote followed tougher measures to broadly eliminate collective bargaining rights for public employees in Ohio, Wisconsin, and other states. But unlike those efforts, the push in Massachuse­tts was led by Democrats who have traditiona­lly stood with labor to oppose any reduction in workers’ rights.
05:53 PM on 04/27/2011
You ask a rheorical question for which you already know the answer. There will be no discussion of unemployment, the new conflicts we've entered into, the conflicts which we have no plan for resolution, the out of control spending which we have no intention of reigning in, the economic mess which we have no intention or clue how to revolve. This applies to both parties equally as we struggled through 8 years of Bushs' incompetence and now more years + of even more absudity. Unless things change quickly we are heading for a train wreck which we'll all pay for dearly and the generations to come.
05:46 PM on 04/27/2011
I'm going to have to disagree, the government should not be focusing on "job creation" it is incapable of of creating anything in the private sector. All it can do is hire public servants which are a drain on the budget, not a benefit.
What it should do is get out of the way. No more bailouts, no more confusing thousand pages of tax laws and no more outlandish requirements for employers *cough health care bill* Only then will private businesses be able to thrive.
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samtee
Shankapotomus.
05:56 PM on 04/27/2011
The republican's have passed something in the house that would created tons of jobs and that would be the repeal of Obamacare.
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groland
socially left, fiscally right
05:02 PM on 04/27/2011
I don't know whether the employment issue will be forgotten, but we sure are forgetting the WAR issue. How many years of Afghanistan, Iraq, and now Libya can we continue to support? The terrorist are long gone from Afghanistan. What is our mission? What will victory look like? How do we get out?

War is the ultimate use of government power. Why is this not issue Number 1.
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jimtodd
Unrepentant child of '60s
04:42 PM on 04/27/2011
Sooner or later we will have to recognize that we are choosing to use our intellectual prowess, our defining human feature, as the tool of our destruction. Of all the species that have evolved, we are the only one, so far, that has had the ability to affect the planet. All others have had to adapt to their conditions and accept the decisions of fate unchallenged. Yet, we use this incredible gift to chase ephemeral benefits that we generally agree will not make us happy, and is in all likelihood making the planet inhospitable for living things. Why we have collectively made that decision, and why we do not have the ability to revisit it, are beyond my power of comprehension, but if there is answer someone please share it..