The World Holds its Breath -- WE KNOW THE RESULTS

All my friends are asking me, "When will we know the results of the election?" NOW we know.. It's 8 pm on the east coast and we now know that Obama has won because he just was declared the winner in Pennsylvania. The analysis below still pertains, but Pennsylvania went for Obama and it's OVER for McCain. Break out the champagne!.

For those of us in California, results will start coming in as early as 3 pm Pacific time, when polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. And if you think it's only we Left Coasters who are holding our breath, check out this analysis by the Times Online from the U.K. The world is holding its breath as well. TV sets from Kenya to Pakistan to Quito to Bangkok to London will be tuned into the 6 pm eastern time zone in the U.S.

Results will start rolling in shortly after the first polls close at 6pm EST, or 11pm GMT By the time most Americans wake up, the first votes in the presidential election will have already been declared. In the tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch, all two dozen of its residents will have cast their ballots simultaneously at midnight, with the results released one minute later. In keeping with electoral tradition both candidates will be present, though neither should be unduly worried by the outcome, as despite its uncanny accuracy in predicting party nominees, it has voted Republican in all but one presidential election in the last fifty years. For the real bellwethers, the world will have to wait just a little bit longer.

UPDATE: Dixville Notch votes 15 to 6 for Obama tonight! Which could indicate a real blowout for Obama...

The results that will flow in between 6 and 8 pm eastern (3 pm and 5 pm pacific) may tell us a lot more, although the fact that parts of some states close their polls at different times (most of Florida polls close at 7 pm eastern but the panhandle doesn't close until 8 pm) and parts of some states are in different time zones, may make it tricky to figure out what is going on.

By 8 pm eastern (5 pm pacific), however, polls will have closed in twenty-eight states. Obviously, if the exit polls show the results are close, the networks won't call those states right away. But if the polls show Pennsylvania and either Virginia, North Carolina or Florida (not to mention Ohio, Indiana or Missouri) in Obama's column, you can start popping the champagne if you are an Obama supporter.

I know that we can't be complacent. But neither should we be nervous wrecks. Take a look at the key polling sites like www.fivethirtyeight.com (which has Obama at 349.7 electoral votes) or Pollster.com (which has Obama at 264 electoral votes strong and 47 lean) or Electoral-vote.com (with the same results as Pollster). The polls in these states have been pretty consistent over the past several weeks, all bizillion of them. And they all show Obama with a decent lead. Real Clear Politics show the Obama lead to range from +3 to +10, depending on the poll. And whether or not these polling sites simply add up the polls and average them or do some fancy weighting system, the results are the same. Obama has a lead that can overcome the Bradley effect or snow, sleet or rain, or the pundits constant need to keep this thing alive by mentioning obscure polls that show McCain getting closer. The country is fixated on this race, and never have so many people done so much to elect their candidate.

As Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com says,

This is beginning to look like a five-state election. Those states are Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Nevada. Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states.I should caution that by far the most likely scenario is that Obama wins some relatively decisive victory of anywhere from 3-12 points in the popular vote. If Obama wins the popular vote by anything in this range, he will find plenty of blue territory, accumulating somewhere between 300-400 electoral votes. The electoral math will matter very little.

If you believe that Obama's lead in the states described in the websites above will hold, then you can and should chill out -- not work less -- but chill out in the days that remain. Keep focused on electoral votes -- 270 to win -- popular vote is only relevant as an indicator of the overall electoral vote count. It's a state by state battle now. Absolutely do all you can. Absolutely do not let your guard down. But, as my friend Nicole says, start getting ready to bake your landslide cakes covered with blue frosting!

While the networks will not declare a winner until the west coast has voted, we should all know by 8 pm eastern, 5 pm pacific what the trend is for the Presidential race. And it is hard to imagine that hundreds of polls and millions of calls and door to door canvassing have not been successful in getting out the vote for Obama. Still, don't let the early returns keep you from voting in the West. There are too many important ballot initiatives and Senatorial races to stay away from the polls.

When my husband was in elementary school, he told his little school friends, "If Dewey don't beat (Truman), you can call me Pete." They did, for a whole year. And he became a Democrat. Now I say, "If Obama don't beat, you can call me Pete".

Comments

[Karisma]

My Dad was a World War II Hero in the Normandy Invasion and Battle of the Bulge under Patton's Third Army. If he were still alive today, he would be proud of Obama and what he stands for!!!

[carolmitchell]

It is not over until we have all voted. We need to be sure that all of us have our say. I live in India and will wake up early on Wednesday (around 5.30 am) to watch as you all go to the polls. I will go to breakfast to set up our map of the US and begin to log in the winners. We won't go home until we log in Hawaii. So keep voting out there in the West especially Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, and...

[RonCanada]

When I travel, I often use the line: "I find all Americans obnoxious..... except the ones I meet". But today I'm feeling an overwhelming pride toward the people of the United States of America. For the last two months you have been the laughingstock of the entire world. On Wednesday you will all be citizens of a new America.

[PaluaWahine]

I voted last week and am making calls to Virginia this week. The winner will be called long before our polls close in Hawaii, but it just gives us longer to celebrate!! I have heard from so many overseas friends this week.. the world is biting their nails, hoping for an Obama win!

I just wanted to say mahalo to everyone for being vigilant, for volunteering, for keeping up the enthusiasm, and for coming together. I'm not celebrating early.. I'm just getting darn hopeful. :)

[nodoginthishunt]

Why is everybody setting themselves up for the big fall?

[kellygrrrl]

because it is so deeply and painfully burning in our memories

[nodoginthishunt]

You misunderstand me. Obama will not win this thing. Mac will win PA, and that will be it. Come to grips with it now, and you won't be crushed on Tuesday.

[parvo63]

Because it's coming.

[kellygrrrl]

I just had a flashback to 2:00 a.m. CA time Nov. 5, 2004.
I went to bed thinking John Kerry was President.
I was awoken at 2:00 a.m. by a strange sound and walked downstairs to find my 18 y/o son crying in front of the TV.

I don't ever want to see that sight again

[MAragon]

I know what you mean. That loss was devastating. I still remember going in to work in DC the next day and how grim and quiet it was on the metro. Then, at work, everyone was subdued and devastated. We had turned out big time to vote for Kerry and Bush still won. It was awful.

[GREGy]

i need to ask - if it is racist to NOT vote for a non-white person because he is NOT white, is it racist to vote FOR someone because he is non-white. I just can't decide. Do we need affirmative action for the presidency?

[uheardme]

*******************New election troll alert**********************

[syrynus]

McCain is having to twist arms to make school districts bus kids in to bring his rallies to respectable numbers...respectable in this case meaning 1/5 the crowd Obama is pulling.

But don't start coasting! Keep canvassing! Keep calling friends and relatives! We can not take anything for granted. Go to the whip on yourself as you head for that finish line. 48 hours more!

[zanzig]

People, I will be watching avidly from Oz. It's been a fabulous 6 months or so (since I logged on here) and I have been heartened to see and read that Americans are still holding the beacon of democracy high. Good luck to you all, and I hope with all my heart that Senator Obama wins this Presidency.

[STILJON]

There is only one thing anyone should be saying in these comments. GO VOTE!!! The polls mean nothing unless everyone votes. Give one day if it takes that and work for our future by voting for Senator Obama and he will continue to spend every day working for you. The polls are so wide in large part because of new voters. It"s up to all of us to stand in line for as long as it takes and vote. This is the largest effort ever to bring in new voters so if you don"t vote you will permanently prove the belief that first time voters do not go to the polls and ensure your concerns are never pursued or listened to again. Make this time different. You could finally change the landscape of the electorate and force your ideas to be considered, expanding policies beyond the base of both parties. Every single vote counts and we cannot afford to wake up Wednesday and find out democrats lost by only a few votes again, because we thought it would be a blowout. Let"s make it a landslide and prove the polls right!! Everyone take a day and change the world!!! VOTE!!!!!!!!

[Rapid Ray]

McCain concedes...10PM eastern when the count from Missouri hits.

Palin does the Ahnold line within the hour...."I'll be back."

[Nofoolhere]

Perhaps I'm confused about the policy this year, but in the past there was an agreement among the media to sit on the results and projections until the last polls close in the west. Has that changed for this election?

[Linda Bergthold - Huffpost Blogger]

No, you're right. The networks will NOT announce the winner until the polls close in California and the west at 8 pm. However, the point I was making is that we will know the "trend" once we see what the exit polls say about east coast states, and even if the networks don't announce the winner, we will know the winner by looking at results from states like PA, FLA, NC, VA, etc.

On the other hand, I agree with every single commenter who has said that we cannot let up our effort until the last poll closes. These polls, both pre-election and exit polls, mean NOTHING if people don't actually show up. And in the western states, there are many ballot initiatives that are crucial to the survival of our democracy -- Prop 8 in California is not just about the marriage rights for gays, if it were to pass it would amend the State constitution, and that is a very dangerous precedent. So Californians really cannot give up and not vote, no matter how good things look for Obama.

[KiwiMike]

Hello posters. I've been following your election with great interest, and it would be fair to say that everyone I know here would be distraught if that horrible little old man won. But don't worry....there is a Plan B! If Obama is robbed of victory, all of you can move to New Zealand. We need more decent and compassionate people here, like everywhere else, and it's very peaceful and beautiful. Republicans wouldn't like it here much, because Kiwis actually care about each other and fight for everyone to get a fair go. For the sake of the whole planet, GO OBAMA!!!

[cminri]

Hey KiwiMike - If the unthinkable happens, Im sure many of us will more than happy to relocate to a new location such as New Zealand. Hopefully, that wont be case, but its nice to know you guys are rooting for us and are paying attention.

[spudgun]

Wow, I would if I could but, among other difficulties, NZ has an immigration age limit...

[sappho99336]

Hey, thanks, KiwiMike.

[bipolar2]

** No "Hail to the Thief" likely at Inauguration 2009 -- Obama 95% probability of win **

Projected winner: Obama takes all with at least 334/538 Electoral College votes on 11/02/2008. That is 64 more than the minimum necessary 270/538. (Princeton U. site still estimates 364/538.)

National polls showing percentages are meaningless. Only state polls matter -- but not beyond 50%+1 vote. In a Presidential election, only votes in the Electoral College count.

Estimates of Electoral College votes don"t show the kind of dramatic swings that make for breathless faux news. What to do? Go to these sites. They show outcomes from statistical models. If the election were held today, Obama would win. In a landslide.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com where on 11/02/2008: estimated 334 electoral votes for Obama. With a win being at 95% likelihood.

http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-electoral-votes-for-obama/ where on 11/02/2008: estimated 364 electoral votes for Obama. (Obama declared winner-of-the-day ever since mid-June.)

[JoelHorn]

There is excitement all over the world. Yesterday I spoke wiht my son in New Zealand who said that the news there is dominated by Obama and not their local/national elections which are happening.

The whole world realizes that the US has a chance to step forward again. People of every political stripe share a palpable national excitement, even angst, as we undergo something akin to birthing pains. Regardless of political party, we should be proud and mark the moment when we elect our first black President. It is a milestone in our journey to be the country we aspire to and a reminder to friends and enemies abroad why we are such a great country.