The "But" Factor

Yogi Berra once said "you can hear a lot by listening." Well, as someone who listens to consumers for a living, I've found that if you really want to learn what voters are thinking, check out their "buts."

As an advertising professional, I've spent years sitting in focus groups, scrutinizing consumers as they offer their "honest" feedback. And what I've realized is that long after they've devoured their free turkey sandwich and made mince meat out of my television ad, the only opinion that matters is the one that comes after the word "but." All the well thought-out remarks preceding it are rational, left-brain responses that have nada to do with purchase intent.

"I love this cereal, and it has so many healthy vitamins and minerals -- but I don't think it will taste good." Snap, crackle, flop.

"The woman in that shampoo commercial was way too over the top, but she did make me laugh." Better stock the shelves guys.

And it doesn't work any differently for presidential hopefuls.

Seven years of enduring one of the most unpopular presidents in modern history, and we're still scratching our heads wondering what possessed so many of us to pull the lever for George. W. Well, it's our "buts" we should be scratching, because that's what got him elected in the first place.

"He doesn't seem all that intelligent -- and it's a bit disconcerting that he can't pronounce the word 'nuclear' -- but I'd love to have a beer with him." The most important job on the planet, and we're still awarding it to the guy we'd like to hang with at a frat party.

As a former member of the advertising team on Senator Hillary Clinton's now suspended presidential campaign, I can assure you that we watched our "buts" constantly. And though the effectiveness of the commercials we produced can debated "ad" nauseam, it's safe to say that Senator Clinton handily convinced eighteen million people that she was the best choice for president.

Still, the boys took the spoils (again) this election year, and now both are zeroing in on the Hillary contingent. That means they have a whole new batch of "buts" to look out for. I won't be in those focus groups, of course, but I can already hear the comments.

"I find Barack Obama brilliant, visionary and inspiring -- but he looks too scrawny to defend our country if we get attacked."

"Obama says he can relate to working class people like me -- but why did he ask for herbal tea at that diner in New Jersey?"

"John McCain keeps calling me 'his friend'-- but I get this funny feeling he could turn on me at any second."

"McCain is a true American hero, with a long, admirable Senate record -- but, jeez, the guy is older than dirt."

Meanwhile, regardless of their "no negative ads" war cry, each candidate will try to expose the other's sorry "buts" in the most flagrant and unflattering ways possible. Obama needs to cover his by attracting zillions of youth votes -- the fresh faced kids who see him a middle-aged guy with a vision -- while at the same time playing down his chai latte metrosexual persona. A few more jump shots from the key, and a little less "Can you grow arugula on your farm?" when cavorting with the commoners.

McCain needs to define his aging "but" as being the only candidate with the decades of experience needed to lead this nation at such a critical time in our history. That means the Straight Talk team will have to position his wrinkles as respectable worry-lines, the result of years of fretting about ear marks, pork barrels, and how to keep us in Iraq for another century or two.

Oh, yeah, and watch that hair trigger temper of yours, John-boy, and show Cindy the love once in a while.

In other words, the key to winning, fellas, is to make sure you're not just listening to the voters, but you're really hearing them, as well. Be someone they can relate to. Someone they truly admire. Someone they can really like. And while you're at it, be wary of research and focus groups that give you logical answers. Look for the eye rolls, the facial cues, the smiles, the sneers, the folded arms, or the casual banter that ensues while the commentator takes her bathroom break. The truth is never obvious; it slips out at the tail end of a sentence. And watching your tail is what will get you that fancy Pennsylvania address.

Because when the issues of health care, energy, and our sinking economy have been debated in 75,000 Town Hall meetings across America, and voters are demanding to hear more about the heady issues -- they'll still end up voting with their hearts.

So get our there, guys. Tell us how you're going to turn this country around. Just remember to watch your you-know-what at all times. Because that's how we pick a president.

No ifs, ands, or buts about it.

__________________

Linda Kaplan Thaler is the CEO and Chief Creative Officer of the Kaplan Thaler Group advertising agency in New York.

Comments

[tuttlemsm]

"As a former member of the advertising team on Senator Hillary Clinton's now suspended presidential campaign, I can assure you that we watched our "buts" constantly. And though the effectiveness of the commercials we produced can debated "ad" nauseam, it's safe to say that Senator Clinton handily convinced eighteen million people that she was the best choice for president."

...but...

... you didn't win.

[Titonwan]

I supported Barack because he vowed to filibuster telco immunity, but since he lied, I won't be voting for him.

[Rrhain]

And thus McCain should be elected?

The general election voting booth is not the place to "punish" a candidate. That's what the primary is for. That's what writing your elected officials is for. At the general election, you have to vote for somebody, not against.

[RI]

Even though your point is well taken, emotional reactions usually trump reason, especially when people are stirred up by psychological terrorists running fear-inducing campaign ads.

But sometimes those tactics have been so obvious that there is now some awareness of them and some backlash. For example, Hillary’s infamous 3 a.m. ad probably got a lot of fear-induced votes when it ran, but I’ve also read there was a lot of negative reaction to it after people had some time to think about it.

Some of us are hoping that there are now enough people in this country who can think beyond their buts.

[kasv]

Ms. Thaler: I was waivering between Hill and Obama, BUT then she started touting McCain and diparaging her fellow democrat challenger and insisted on giving the GOP/McCain political ammunition.

So, when she started placing herself above country - because the difference between the democrat and republican on the issues is vast, she lost my respect, and my future vote.

I'm concerned the GOP and McCain strategy - which will be to use every negative statement she uttered about Obama in her campaigning - will forever place her in the "how could you be so stupid" box in the minds of many democrats and independents.

It will be up to her how she responds to that upcoming GOP strategy. And it will be up to her to reign in the wandering members of her flock that are still out there supporting McCain in their anger and disappointment.

These future responses, if she handles them deftly, decidedly and effectively, may regain the respect she lost from I and others, and our future votes as well. I'm praying she is succesful in that endeavor.

[joanndarc]

I agree, unfortunatelly most people vote for candidates wit whatever is between their leggs as if they are going to get to secretly cuddle with them. "..but I like him/her.."

[zann]

It's one thing to acknowledge that a president can be marketed like a bottle of shampoo and another to say that therefore he has to behave like one to get elected.

[Cathexis]

While my heart is with you on thatzann, I can't help but believe Ms Kaplan's point is still valid.

She hasn't said a candidate has to do this to get elected. She does say that doing this does help a candidate get elected. Subtle, but different points.

It becomes objectionable if the candidate has to become "false" in order to gain support. But if a candidate can remain true to him/herself, this is a powerful tactic to employ.

[rupert12]

I would have considered voting for Hillary for president, but the Rovian scare tactics used in her 3AM ad convinced me she would just give us more of the same old crap.

[FearlessFreep]

'I've found that if you really want to learn what voters are thinking, check out their "buts."'

I often check out young women's "buts." :^)

[sparkandy]

Or cowboys in Wranglers.

[grendl]

What killed your candidate Hillary's campaign, or its major undoing was inconsistency.

One day wagging the maternal finger of shame at the newly awakened youth vote, crying the next, talking about toughness the day after that, lying about escapades on Bosnian tarmacs. This country could not figure out who she was, all the while being told we were familiar with her.

We were familiar with the philanderer husband of hers, the charmer who was intrinsically a good guy, and leader, with a few pecadillos, but Hillary was still a question mark, and seeing her bask in the approbation of a sea of white West Virginian faces turned a lot of liberals off. She embraced racists a little too easily, or at least their vote.

Barack shifting to the middle is a mistake. He should stay consistent, and get us the hell out of the sandtrap like he promised. Taking the progressive vote for granted, whilst trying to woo the middle of the road independents could cost him, but its unlikely. McCain commits the biggest crime one can in the public spotlight, he's dull as dishwater.

[Merlin7]

Some ads are too clever for their own good, and some ad writers don't seem to realize they are offending a large portion of their audience. A good example is the recent spate of ads featuring a man acting like a child and a woman who scolds him or otherwise treats him like a child. These ads now are all over the tube. The products, companies and groups involved include AARP, Yo Plait yogurt, Washington Mutual and others. The ad agencies involved obviously don't realize that these ads are tremendously offensive to many men, who will modify their consumer choices accordingly. With such strange and distasteful ads now so common, it's no wonder the presidential candidates have problems getting their messages across in a simple, straightforward manner.

[davedave]

i'd of voted for hillary but i didn't much like her....

d

[Yohomegirl]

Ditto Dave. I don't like the word 'suspended'. Rather unfinished sounding.