The Night They Brought Old Dixie Back

You know your candidate is in big trouble when you get the "Believe" e-mail. It usually means he is so far behind in the polls that he won't use actual stats, but he needs you to vote so the defeat won't be even more lopsided.

I got that e-mail two days before Creigh Deeds, the Democrat running for Governor of Virginia, got walloped by Republican Bob McDonnell on Nov. 3. I knew it was all over then. But here's what Deeds sent: "If you believe, and I believe, and we believe together, we will win this election." Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.

The Republican ticket had perhaps the most reactionary record in recent Virginia history, yet they ran successfully as moderates. Bob McDonnell, a graduate of televangelist Pat Robertson's law school (an oxymoron if ever there were one) wrote his graduate thesis about how working women endangered the family and unmarried couples should be denied birth control. On top of that, as state attorney general, he approved an amendment to Virginia's historic bill of rights that forbade marriage-like contractual agreements for both heterosexuals and homosexuals. For the first time ever, the Virginia Bill of Rights, the model for our U.S. Bill of Rights, had an asterisk.

McDonnell's newly elected successor as Virginia's attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli, is so virulent in his opposition to equal rights for gay people that the Washington Post described it as "bigotry." As state senator, Cuccinelli said that homosexual acts are "intrinsically wrong" and that "in a natural law-based country it's appropriate to have policies that reflect that." Looks like we need a new state slogan, as "Virginia Is For Lovers" verges on false advertising.

With such candidates, and a do-nothing health insurance executive in the Lt. Governor slot, the Republicans were not expected to win so big (17 points statewide) and to have such huge consequences down ballot (six Democratic incumbents, many of them impressive, lost their seats in the state legislature). But McDonnell looked good on camera--a short man with a big head like Alan Ladd and other stars of old Hollywood--and he did a good job of acting, too, by running as a moderate. How else to explain such a quick switch in political philosophy?

The Republican victory in Virginia brought the same cast of players, ostensibly defeated by Barack Obama's election, back to the table: religious right activists, no-tax extremists, and the old ruling class that has dominated Southern politics for generations. With McDonnell's election, they've learned a new formula of "acceptable Republicanism," according to Newt Gingrich: "develop a positive message and campaign intensely among minorities."

The most likely beneficiary of such a strategy is Haley Barbour, governor of Mississippi and head of the Republican Governors Association. Widely reputed to be running for vice president, Barbour can't afford for the Republican Party to be solely identified with white men. Yet, as former head of the national Republican Party, it's puzzling why he didn't help elect an African American to statewide office in Mississippi, which has the greatest percentage of African Americans in any state and the greatest total number of black elected officials nationwide. You'd think that if Bob McDonnell could convince Obama supporter Sheila Johnson, co-founder of BET and the first black female billionaire in America, to support him for governor, then Barbour could do a better job in Mississippi. As a veteran lobbyist, he certainly knows the art of persuasion.

Barbour told the Washington Post: "In the American two-party system, both parties necessarily are coalitions. And when you lose, you need to go to special efforts to make everybody in your coalition feel welcome." So McDonnell's and Barbour's brand of Republicanism will dial back the rhetoric of a Rush Limbaugh, and focus its wrath on Nancy Pelosi more than Barack Obama. But will it govern any differently?

Barbour certainly didn't. As Mississippi governor during Hurricane Katrina, he excelled in corporate welfare. He funneled federal recovery funds to state insurance companies, rather than help low-income people as Congress directed. He campaigned on a motto of "We Can Do Better," but after eight years in office Barbour's (and my) home state is still dead last in most rankings except poverty, where it is perenially first.

Back in Virginia, however, there is a ray of hope for Democrats. Longtime activist Scott Surovell, a young lawyer who was campaigning "in utero" according to his similarly devoted mother, won a hard-fought campaign to retain a Democratic seat in the Virginia legislature, representing the Mount Vernon suburb of Washington, DC. Surovell, the Energizer bunny of Virginia Democratic politics, entered his race at the end of June when the incumbent unexpectedly retired. Taking his campaign from zero to sixty in just a few days, Surovell outraised and outworked his heavily backed Republican opponent and won election barely four months later.

How did Surovell do it? By not taking his Obama voters for granted. Surovell hired field organizers to replicate the Obama strategy in precincts with high percentages of African Americans but chronically low turnout, especially in off-year elections. By doing so, Surovell not only won his own race but boosted the gubernatorial candidate's performance in his district. Had such a strategy been followed statewide, Democrat Creigh Deeds might still have lost to McDonnell, but not by nearly so large a margin.

The calculus for Democratic victory in Virginia has changed, but candidates are not keeping up. It used to be that the state's marginal Democrats in rural areas decided elections--and the heavily Democratic regions of Northern Virginia and the southeastern coastal cities in Hampton Roads had to play along. But since Obama mobilized thousands of young people and ethnic minorities to win the state, voters in the urban areas are reluctant to go back to the old ways. Unless statewide candidates can excite the Obama constituents, they won't win, and they will have to run more liberal campaigns to do so. Having tasted victory, the Obama voters in Virginia are unlikely to return to old-time Virginia politics.

But the Republicans are resurgent, at least for now. It's going to be a hard slog in 2010 and 2012 to keep the grassroots fervor alive--and the funding to sustain it. In Virginia, we are just plain-out tired. Our grassroots activists have been fighting tooth and nail to claw out Democratic victories since 2001--electing two governors, two U.S. senators, and culminating with Barack Obama, the first Democratic nominee to win the state's presidential electors in 44 years. With state or federal elections every year, Virginia's Democratic base is exhausted.

So man up, all you Obama voters of 2008. Virginia is a bellweather of what can happen in 2010 and 2012 if Democratic fatigue and Republican dissembling coincide. Yes we did, and yes we must again.

 

Follow Linda R. Monk, J.D. on Twitter: www.twitter.com/LindaRMonkJD

Comments

[rich3324]

Every once in a while it's good to let the GOP run things. It shows everyone how bad they are at doing it. If McDonnell was running against Mark Warner or Tim Kaine I wonder if he would of been been so appealing

[pj100]

I have to agree with DianneinCA­...Dems don't know how to step up to the plate...Lo­ok at healthcare reform different groups within the dem party are fight and whining that if they don't get what they want they are going to take there votes home.

I have to give it to the repubs they STICK together , they talk and walk the same..We act timid, scared, the repubs challenge and lie and we let it go on...What kind of dems do we have in congress, get mad, fight back be Grayson we need to give the repubs a taste of there own medicine..­. we don't stand up for our elected officials and we are certainly NOT standing with the President.

[ron46032]

Linda, I know you understand that BO had only 1 year to get his liberal agenda passed. He's so far left of mainstream America that he really can't win in a more moderate Congress. By 2010, most if not all of the Dem majority in both houses of Congress will be erased, and that's if the economy improves.

If the economy doesn't improve and/or we do a double dip recession, then 1994 is going to look mild. The House and Senate will switch to a good majority of Republicans. With the Virginia elections, you are seeing the future.

The Dems only hope is that they stop the extremist agenda and learn from Bill Clinton. BO needs to govern from the center. The current Health care bill needs to be re-done. The Cap and Trade bill needs to be killed. Lastly, the deficit needs to be reduced. Otherwise, you'll be looking back at 2010 and thinking what happened.

[WorkingClass]

Democrats. Republicans. Who cares? Red State / Blue State is a game for suckers. Both Parties are corrupt. Witness the Democrats and health care reform. The only winners are our corporate masters. I don't know what the way forward is for the United States but it will not be led by Democrats or Republicans.

[Linda R. Monk, J.D. - Huffpost Blogger]

Just be an honest Independent, then. Make both parties work for your vote, and you will be doing your country a service. But please vote. Otherwise, you are just keeping the same old same old in power. They count on you not to participate.

[dhfsfc]

Both parties? I'm ready to vote for a third party, thanks.

[Merlin7]

This trend shows why democracy -- even our pseudo-democracy -- doesn't work very well: There are always more ignorant and gullible voters than there are intelligent and well-meaning voters. Republicans know this very well and have become experts at mobilizing the knuckle-draggers by using simplistic, jingoistic arguments and code language aimed at emboldening various kinds of bigots. In fact, the 2008 election was merely a fluke -- a reaction to Bush and an unpopular war. Next year Americans will happily return to their usual pattern of electing scoundrels and idiots to most offices, and the U.S. will accelerate its slide toward Third World status. Seriously, if I had small children, I would move to Europe or New Zealand before it gets really nasty here.

[onlinesavant]

Your thesis would be valid if indeed, energized "knuckle draggers" were what won the election in Va, or NJ. A more accurate description, and it is at this core of this opinion piece, of what happened, is that young voters, and minorities, stayed home. You have to look at these two states, and the post mortem of both, within the factual parameters that are present. Deeds was a wholly un-inspiring, effete candidate, who came out of VA's primary, because he was the least "controver­sial." He also suppressed his natural base by running to the right, with such proclamations as, "I will support a VA opt-out" of the public option if one is hypothetically available.­Corzine was the walking epitome of the times we live in (In a bad way.). A former Goldman Sacks CEO, who promised to lower NJ's property taxes (And failed to do so.), was also uninspiring, and even distasteful, to his natural base.So if anything is to learn from these losses for the Democrats, it is to bring more inspiring, more politically adept candidates out of primaries.

[Merlin7]

Sure, it was just the bad candidates that lost those seats. Democrats always do that -- toss their own candidates under the bus when they lose. No, it's more than that. It's a depressing trend: Younger Dems do stay home and sit on their hands instead of voting, while the tea-baggers and other nutjobs. can't wait to get to the polls. As I said, that's why our "democracy" doesn't work very well and serves mainly to ensure that right-wingers are elected in large numbers.

[Linda R. Monk, J.D. - Huffpost Blogger]

Well, the right wing is on the rise in Europe, too. See Fareed Zakaria's column in today's Washington Post. New Zealand is prettier, anyway.

[greguva]

I've been a Virginia voter since 1978, and for the first time ever in a national or statewide election, I did not cast a vote this year. I had a legitimate excuse - I was at work until after the polls closed. But, if I had had a candidate to be excited about, I'd have found a way to vote (I'd have dragged my butt out of bed early if needed). But, Creigh Deeds was not that candidate.

He ran the worst campaign I have ever seen. Early on he distanced himself from Obama and from the left, leaving voters like me with bad tastes in our mouths. He apparently took the left's vote for granted, assuming that there was no way we would vote for McDonnell, and that he could concentrate on picking up a few votes on the right.

He was right about the left not voting for McDonnell, but what he didn't take into consideration is that we had a third option, which many of us took - not voting at all. And there was no way he was going to pick up enough votes on the right to make up for the apathy that he inspired.

I sincerely hope that Democrats across the nation take note of what happened here, and do not repeat the mistakes that the Deeds campaign made.

[AcePilot101]

The "race card" can be played against either party, so let's not go there.
The real issue is liberal versus conservative social policies. Even that gets me a bit
confused because liberals are really socialists (okay, progressives) and conservatives
behave like 19th century liberals.
So, do we raise taxes or find a better way lower the cost of healthcare?
Instead of government healthcare, we could apply anti-trust laws to the insurance companies and break them up into smaller companies. And instead of cutting Medicare, why not extend it to cover all people in the form of credits? Just asking out loud.

[Merlin7]

Please. Breaking up companies would accomplish nothing. The same sleaze-bag capitalists would quickly form more companies and find other ways to keep gouging the public. The real issue is why America's political establishment is so backward -- so addicted to simplistic, right-wing ideology -- that it can't even provide basic services for its people. This flaw is now so pronounced that America is rapidly sliding into Third World conditions while more progressive areas in Europe and Asia are rapidly surpassing the U.S. economically, educationally and technologically.

[EbonBear]

Liberals are not socialists in any way, shape or form. Calling us socialists simply indicates that you don't understand what either word means.

[Jason Osborne]

You nailed it - we're TIRED. This election - while horrible - was the break (and motivation) we needed.

[BocaMom]

If President Obama and Congress turnarounds the economy and bring unemployment to at least 7%, we will win in 2010 and 2012.

However, if they continue to keep their heads in the sand and screw up the the economy even more,
and we see more foreclosures and companies shutting down, we don't deserve to hold on to the Congress or White House.

And we will lose them both.No if, ands or butts.

[ssg13565]

Where do you get the idea that the Obama administration is screwing up the economy?

I want to know who is propagating such distortions in order to discourage the Democratic vote?

This is the kind of stuff we need to counter immediately or we won't have a chance in 2011.

[Linda R. Monk, J.D. - Huffpost Blogger]

Prof. Elizabeth Warren, head of Congress's oversight of the TARP fund, says that we have focused taxpayer money on helping the top of the economy like Goldman Sachs, rather than the folks hurting at the bottom (foreclosures and the unemployed). I agree with her on that. We have to hold our president accountable; that's the best way to get him reelected.

[uglygnome]

This says much more about the voters of Virginia than it does about the Democratic voters across the U.S.

[Linda R. Monk, J.D. - Huffpost Blogger]

That's an interesting observation, because Virginia is often referred to as a "mini America"--blue in the north and red in the south.

I hope you are right, but get ready for the buzz saw. In contested states, it is going to be all-out war.

[mackbolan]

it seems to me that it said more about independents and how they defected from the dems....

[BlackJAC]

Massachusetts had Republican Governors pretty much through the entire Clinton and Dubya Administrations yet whomever was the Democratic candidate for President won that state that whole time, too. If you believe that this was somehow a major victory for the gops, then I've got a ski chalet in Egypt I'd like to sell you.

[Linda R. Monk, J.D. - Huffpost Blogger]

Put down the Kool-Aid, BlackJAC. Nobody doubted that MA would go for the Dem presidential, or in Congress. It has always been reliably BLUE in that regard.

VA is a swing state, now, and we've just recently moved it to bluish purple with a lot of hard work. It'll take hard work to keep it that way.

[BlackJAC]

Don't force me to break out the lawyer jokes. No amount of freakjob rhetoric or screeching about the Evil Liberal Media will make up for outright incompetence as we saw with Katrina.

[LushLife72]

Yea but isn't the grassroots dormant because of Obama's fecklessness on the Big Issues.? Hard to get reved up when the great rhetoric wears off and there's not much else there. So I agree that the GOP is scary as hell in all its incarnations. But where is the leadership to direct our frustrations towards something more positive? Poilitics as usual must go in order for the Dem grassroots to have a real incentive to mobilize again.

[ssg13565]

Has politics as usual managed to get a health care reform through the House in the last 200 years?

What usual politics are you talking about? Is it the kind mandated by the Constitution that Obama has sworn to uphold and defend?

[Linda R. Monk, J.D. - Huffpost Blogger]

Good point about health insurance reform. It is a big accomplishment, and like sausage should not be witnessed in the making.

Ditto about the Constitution; it is our best hope for hanging together as a nation throughout this crisis.

But like one of the commenters above, I do worry about the US heading for Third World status. We have avoided investing in everything but big business for so long--health care, education, infrastructure, energy--that I am concerned we will become a nation of indentured servants.

[HST]

The republicants lost 2 house seats in the last election one of which they had held since the civil war.
I hope they keep "winning" just like this.

[Linda R. Monk, J.D. - Huffpost Blogger]

Yep, but Dems lost some really good folks (Caputo, Poisson, Valentine) that will be very hard to replace. The Big MO is on the other side, and Dems would be foolish to ignore that.

Still, happy for your victories; we are still shocked in NOVA.

[DianneinCA]

That is so true. If we continue with the non stop assault on our own President we will fail. Look at todays headlines on HP. They are almost all regarding something Pres. Obama has let them down about. He is worse that BUSH! We didn't get what we want so we are taking away our money and going home. That is the reason Dems are so weak, they can not and do not rely on their supporters. Unlike the Republicans, who lock step it everywhere, we do just the opposite. We attack and complain and whine. We sit back and do nothing then wonder why our reps don't stand tall and do our bidding.

[Brian1986]

The Democratic base is exhausted because the Democratic Party isn't delivering on any of its promises!

[DogoftheEarth]

Amen to that.

[splinky]

Yep, all work and no reward is kind of enervating.

[MegWe]

BS.

[minerva117]

Add to that the fact that Deeds threw his base under the bus, then expected them to take time out of their busy day to go to the polls and vote for him. He had LOSER written all over him from the get-go!