The Wild Mood Swings of this Election

Thirteen days is a long time in a political campaign. Having gone through nine elections myself, I know how unpredictable the final days are. Anything can happen.

In this campaign season, I am experiencing wild mood swings. One moment, when I scan the polls I'm convinced that nothing can stop Barack Obama from winning the race. He's so far ahead, according to every poll; it's only a question of how many states he will sweep.

The next minute I look at the polls again -- some have him ahead by only three points, others by 6, and a few by double digits. What about the margin of error? My mood plummets. He could lose.

What about those negative ads that keep repeating that he is a Muslim, a socialist, a pal of terrorists and a redistributor of wealth? Are the McCain/Palin attacks finding fertile ground?

I've been making phone calls in New Hampshire to strong Hillary supporters who still have not made up their minds. I explain that I was a fervent Hillary supporter but am now supporting Obama. I tell them what is at stake.

Some have moved over to Obama, others remain in doubt, and there are still some who give me a flat "no." They say they will either stay home or vote for McCain. Their reasons shock me. They repeat the negative statements that have infused the airwaves, almost word for word. "He's a Muslim; he's been hanging out with that Ayers fellow." One woman I spoke with is still furious at how the Democrats "treated Hillary and did not come to her defense."

I've only reached a miniscule number of voters. How many more are there out there?

Then there is the race question. Voters will not even admit to themselves, least of all to anyone else, that race might have something to do with how they will cast their vote. Yes, we're come a long way since Mayor Tom Bradley ran for Governor of California in 1982 and 1986 when the polls showed him ahead, but on election night, he lost. Race, like gender, remains a factor for many people. How many, and to what extent, we will never know.

My mood picks up again when I read about early voting. People are already lined up to vote for three to four hours in parts of Texas. In 2004 Republicans benefited most from early balloting by about 3.5 percentage points. This year, the speculation is that Democrats will be the beneficiaries by a considerable margin.

The other good news is the influx of new and young voters. In 2004 only 31 percent of voters aged 18 to 24 voted. Seventy-two percent of those over 65 showed up at the polls. Young people are not likely to catch up to their grandparents, but their participation in the primaries indicates that they will have a far larger turnout than in recent elections. The question is: will they be there in large enough numbers to make a difference?

The same holds true for African American and white women voters. There is no doubt that there will be an unprecedented turnout amongst African American voters. And the last time I looked, women were returning in significant numbers to the Obama/Biden ticket, after a brief spike of enthusiasm for Sarah Palin. The hope is that white women voters can compensate for Obama's deficit with white male voters.

My mood shifts again when I let myself get into the "anything can happen" mode. Either the McCain people will pull something out of the air that may be devastating to Obama, or either Obama or Biden will make a mistake.

I calmly tell myself that is not likely to happen. Obama has not made a significant mistake in almost two years, and he is unlikely to do so in the final days. The McCain/Palin team has been searching daily for a line of attack that will cripple Obama, and so far, they haven't found it. Even if they do, I tell myself, everyone is riveted on the economy and they are beginning to ignore negative politics as usual.

A global event could change the equation -- such as the capture of Osama Bin Laden or another terrorist attack. The side of me that sees the glass half full says that is not likely to happen now.

What I do know, from my own experience, is that nothing can be taken for granted in the final days before an election. The only tonic for pre-election manic depression is to work for the campaign for as many hours and days of the week as possible. At the very least, it's a distraction, and at the most -- it will help Obama win.

This was originally posted at Chelsea Green.

Madeleine M. Kunin is the former Governor of Vermont and was the state's first woman governor. She served as Ambassador to Switzerland for President Clinton, and was on the three-person panel that chose Al Gore to be Clinton's VP. She is the author of Pearls, Politics, and Power: How Women Can Win and Lead from Chelsea Green Publishing.

Comments

[serena1313]

Never before have I ever been as invested time-wise and monetarily as I have been in this election because of the direction America is now headed and the impact it has had and will have on the rest of the world. Everything is at stake: economy, war, corporate power and influence in government, our standing on the global stage and equally important our human rights and civil liberties. While all are intertwined if we lose the latter true freedom and democracy will have little chance of expanding muchless surviving globally.

Like Madeline I've had the exact same thoughts and the e_motional ups and downs; It has been an e_motional roller-coaster. But thankfully the downs are short-lived. For some reason I have an unshakable belief that Obama is going to win this election hands-down. He has to otherwise the world will be divided into worker-bees and the ultra-wealthy.

I voted today not for Obama, but for every man, woman and child's future, for equal rights and social justice. I voted for the preservation of our Constitution, for the restoration of America's traditions and values and for democracy and freedom. Yes I voted for Barack Obama to lead us there.

This is not the time to vote party loyalty. Vote wisely because between now and 4 November voters will be deciding what kind of world future generations will inherit.

[iyke]

i wonder why nobody is talking about republicans stealing this election like they did in 2000 and 2004,they have started already for 2008 with voters purging in some states,and some sates do not have paper trail for those machines that can injected with software to alter the votes,what is democrats doing to protect pennslvania .

[priscianusjr]

That she had not mentioned this was my first thought too. However, I wouldn't say nobody is talking about it. Rachel Maddow on MSNBC, for one, has been talking about it frequently and in considerable detail. The comeback on the ACORN "fraud" fraud has also been pretty powerful and polls indicate that it hasn't worked.
Also, check this out:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/The-Big-One-Stealing-Amer-by-Rady-Ananda-081021-933.html

[priscianusjr]

And check this out. The Acorn Strikes Back!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdNgMKPV9xQ&eurl=http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2008/10/21/17010/25

[priscianusjr]

Oh, and by the way, look at this:
http://www.alternet.org/mediaculture/103952/

[robbie44]

Senator Obama's campaign is in full snowball .Did you see the way the press (pundit and anchor) pounced on the McCain surrogates and republican politicians with a frenzy on cable t.v. today?

[gadjitfreek]

This is why it is VITAL for Obama to not just win, but win with a landslide. We have to get out and vote, vote, vote! I am so proud of those who have gone out early to vote. Watch this, and pass it on to everyone you know. Enough is enough already.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-QCgZ0d-MM

Our very country is in the balance here. We cannot afford to be complacent!