The Battle for California: Gettysburg or Waterloo?

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This year's presidential race is not, as the pundits now parrot, all about delegates. Like always the case in politics, it's about perceptions. And so whoever wins the most votes in the California battle today, and is therefore perceived to be the inevitable nominee is likely to actually become the Democratic nominee. For Obama this could be Gettysburg. For Hillary - Waterloo.

There was absolute panic yesterday and today inside the Clinton California campaign as it continued to be rocked and jolted by the tectonic shifts in momentum toward Obama. Big Dawg Bill was suddenly pressed into a second day of campaigning in California's black churches. And as polls opened in the Golden State, Hillary Clinton did four - count 'em four--call in interviews with Podunk youth-oriented California radio shows trying to blunt Obama's wild surge.

The last-ditch efforts to save California, where Hillary was head by 30 points last summer, are understandable. One eye-popping survey now has Obama out in front of Clinton by a crushing 13 points in California. We all know about the unreliability of polls, but if this one is anywhere near the mark, Clinton can pack it up.

Yes, delegates count. But the way you get delegates is winning by votes - even with the arcane oddities of the way they are apportioned. If we all agree that regardless of tonight's results, the hard math won't be finalized until next month's primaries in Ohio and Texas - and maybe even beyond into Pennsylvania in April--the question is, how would either candidate win these races.

Answer: whoever creates the unmistakable perception of being, yes, the winner. The strongest candidate. The front-runner. The virtual nominee. And it seems rather obvious, at least to me, that voters in Columbus, Austin and Philly are not going to be asking themselves: "Now, how many delegates to Hillary win in California's 45th Congressional District? How did Barack finish in the 13th?" Rather, they are going to ask; Who won California?

We out here in California are girding for one more earthquake - sometime, probably, in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. When it's over, one Democratic campaign or the other is going to be in shambles.

Comments

[Democrab]

Dee de doodle de do, yup "shambles" is an excellent choice of words.

[suntzu]

Don't agree. In the coming primaries there are lots of folks who don't care too much for California and can swing away from the winner in the Sunny State. What this commentary ignores is the fact that the Obama phenomenon obsoletes much conventional wisdom about presidential politics, and the old chestnut about the winner of the CA primary taking the nomination could be one of them.
Why did the author of this piece not show us the statistics on past primaries where the winner of CA went on to win the nomination? Where is the proof?

[MR]

Waterloo for the polls and Huffington Post who trumpted the totally erroneous polls which showed Obama with a one point lead when Clinton ended up landsliding him in California ( a 10 pt win is an official landslide) and not a gettysburg but a Yorktown for Clinton and Obama since its completely over now for Obama.You dont lose New York, California and Florida,( not to mention New Jersey, Okla, Tenn. and Michigan) and win your party's nomination for President. You just dont.Obama and the news media can spin this any way they want,like announcers in a football game that is clearly over but the clock hasnt run out yet so they give you every impossible scenario in which the losing team can pull it out so you'll keep watching, but its over.

[maxmcgloin]

100 feet not 100 yards.

[May2002]

As a fervent the bystander of this interesting race, I have to say the biggest losers so far are pundits like Marc Cooper and all those mainstream media idiots on TV. Those who have kept implying that Obama has all the momentum and will kick out Hillary sooner than later actually are not doing any objective reporting but projecting their own wish.

So, from now on, I will watch and read all those idiots' reporting and analyses with a grain of salt.

[klondiker]

Marc Cooper, are you prepared to concede defeat on Obama's behalf, then?

[MagisterLudi]

Yo quiero Seniora Clinton!"

Gracias California for supporting the next President.

SCOREBOARD NEVER LIES:

Clinton: 615 delegates
Obamama:515

[ChartreuseMuse]

The entire country, and especially the media (though somehow not surprisingly), are unaware that 4 states, including California, held Green Party primaries today. It's not just a horserace between 4 media-chosen darlings. There are more choices to be found in this election process and for me, that's a reason to celebrate our democracy!

[kellygrrrl]

I'm in Malibu, border of LA and Ventura counties. when I was voting today, we were all standing in line for a Dem booth, and one little Repub came in. She kept her head down and we all backed away from her like she was contagious.
When she left, we all kinda snickered. It was a classic moment

[kellygrrrl]

Watching the Repub Primaries is like Social Studies class where you learn about ancient cultures and try to pretend like you care

[NABNYC]

I don't agree. I don't know if either candidate will receive dramatically more votes in California than the other, so I think it's more likely to be a draw.

But the fact is the Clinton camp is already pushing their newest KKKKarl Rove theory of elections: if you can't win 'em, steal 'em. The Clinton people are suddenly all over the media telling everyone that the votes don't count -- it's just a question of how many delegates do you get.

The reason for that is because the delegate system is set up for corruption in the process. We can have the majority of voters in all the states vote for Obama. But party insiders, the connected, the pols, the big-money people, are given the right to ignore the voters and select whomever they want.

And the Clintons have been arm-bending these "SuperDelegates" for a long time now. As well as threatening party insiders that if they do not support Hillary, they will be frozen out of Democratic Party politics.

So expect to hear the Clintons new mantra. They started with "Well, South Carolina doesn't count because those people are black." (And yes, that's exactly what they said.) But if you weren't offended by that, wait for the Clintons to tell you that none of the voters matter, because they've bribed and intimidated enough party insiders to steal the nomination.

In which case we should all go to the convention and turn 1968 into a footnote.

[tsicby]

Like most of the writers on this site, you suffer from California-myopia.

No one in the rest of the country has ever given a rat's tush about who wins in California. Californians are perceived as flakes, weirdos and illegal immigrants and consequently their opinions don't matter. This is why the press and pundits are saying the country is focused on the delegate count- a much more sanitized barometer of public opinion. LOL.

[arvada]

if obama wins california lights out for hillary

[Kane]

It aint over till the fat lady cries.

[Kane]

Something magical is in the air. You can taste it and feel it and breathe it and dream it. I don't want to jinx anthing by offering a state by state prediction, but I will predict that something very special is about to happen.