The most comprehensive overview of illegal immigration in the United States since the economic crisis began its downward spiral concludes that the flow of unauthorized immigrants into the country has significantly slowed. The annual inflow of unauthorized immigrants was "nearly two-thirds smaller in the March 2007 to March 2009 period than it had been from March 2000 to March 2005." The report released last week by the non-partisan Pew Hispanic Center also concludes that the total number of unauthorized immigrants residing in the United States has dropped by an estimated one million.
These findings have become a kind of Rorschach test: everyone is projecting what they want to see into the numbers and graphs. While the Pew researchers, masters of their trade, carefully avoid any causal statements as to what may be behind the numbers, it seems everybody else is attaching their pet ideas to the new data.
To those who see immigration -- including unauthorized immigration -- as the yin to the yang of American business, this was an "it's the economy, stupid" moment. The economic collapse, they argue, reduced the flow of unauthorized labor to the homeland, as the cornucopia of jobs that pulled them with unstoppable force into the booming economy suddenly evaporated. For those who oppose all immigration, the new figures are proof positive that "attrition through containment" is working. The new multipronged strategy for combating unauthorized immigration includes expanded deportations in the mainland and unprecedented displays of power at the border. Proponents of the tough "attrition through containment" approach claim that the massive deportation campaign -- rapidly intensified under President Obama -- coupled with the greatly expanded deployment of force at the border is exactly the right formula to put an end the problem of mass illegal immigration in the United States.
This formula, alas, is fool's gold.
While the number of unauthorized migrants is indeed down, the most surprising pattern in the new data evokes Sherlock Holmes' story about the dog that didn't bark. It's elemental, Holmes deduced: since the dog did not bark, whoever killed the horse in the barn must have been the master of the barn dog.
The most important variable in the new report is what did not happen under unprecedented circumstances. We are in the midst of the most severe economic recession since the great depression (sharply reducing the incentives for new migration), we are in the midst of the most extensive deportation campaign in recent history (last year 393,000 immigrants were deported from the United States -- the seventh consecutive record high, according to the Department of Homeland Security), and in the midst of the largest growth in monetary and personnel allocations for border enforcement (between 1990 and today, the U.S. increased the border patrol from a force of 3,733 to 20,000. The combined expenditure in 2009 for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement was a staggering $14.9 billion -- and that is not counting the drones now fully operational in our Southern border.) The crossing is more expensive now than ever before. Tougher border controls have been a boom for smugglers -- unlike in the past, today almost everyone crossing the border without papers relies on expensive and dangerous coyotes even as deaths at the border have reached historic records. Yet we continue to have an estimated annual rate of new illegal immigration into the country of 300,000 and, most importantly, we still have over 11 million immigrants without papers. A North to South inertia is the new normal -- immigrants in the U.S. are staying put. Even if the sharply reduced inflows remain at this new low, other things being equal, at the current rate of deportations, it could take over two generations to rid the U.S. of all the unauthorized immigrants.
Anti-Anti Immigration
Those who oppose immigration, first and foremost, oppose illegal immigration. It reveals the failure of government in its most basic task -- setting and regulating international borders, especially urgent in the aftermath of September 11. Unauthorized immigration corrodes the rule of law by unmasking the systemic failure of enforcement. It undermines public trust -- the most important lubricant for social cohesion. Massive unauthorized immigration rewards those who do not play by the rules, punishing would-be migrants patiently waiting their turn, the anti-immigrant chorus incants. It cheapens the value of citizenship and casts suspicion on the status of all legal immigrants. Unauthorized immigration has created a sub-caste of citizen children who through no fault of their own are growing up in the shadows of their country. Unauthorized immigrants, by definition, break one law - upon their unauthorized entry into the United States. No one can be pro illegal immigration.
But such immigrants are not from the other side of the moon. They are working folk who are not only staying put but are growing roots in the U.S. Nearly half of all unauthorized immigrants live in households with a partner and children. The majority of these children, 79 percent, are U.S. citizens by birth. The number of U.S. children growing up in unauthorized families has grown from 2.7 million in 2003 to 4 million in 2008. Adding the 1.1 million unauthorized children living in the U.S. means that there are 5.1 million children currently living in what are termed "mixed-status" homes.
Over the last generation, unauthorized immigration has been closely tied to labor market predilections in the low-skilled sector of the American economy. Like it or not, in the roaring 1990's the nation developed an insatiable appetite for immigrant labor -- summoning millions of unauthorized folk to do the jobs abandoned by native workers. Illegal immigration did not happen to us. We were all complicit in it's making.
The United States of Helplessness
Thus, we are now in a very unhappy place. The U.S. has the largest number and proportion of unauthorized immigrants in the world: we are under five percent of the world's population but have approximately twenty percent of all illegal migrants on earth. This is happening as we face the deepest economic crisis since the great depression -- war, terrorism on a global scale, and a neighbor to the south convulsed by a drug war. We have never seen such a combination of noxious ingredients. Immigration makes Barack Obama President of the United States of Helplessness. All immigration lines are broken: the line at the border, the queues in U.S. consulates, and in U.S. Citizenship and Immigration offices all over the homeland. Those who argue that to fix this all we need is for illegal immigrants to get behind the line, did not get the memo: there is no line to get behind. There are over three million people waiting between four to twenty years to join immediate relatives who are U.S. citizens and permanent migrants. If you are a U.S. citizen and your sister is in the Philippines you will have to wait twenty years before she can join you. If you are a U.S. citizen and would like to sponsor your unmarried adult child in Mexico, you will wait sixteen years. And if you are a start-up in Massachusetts and set out to hire a skilled Indian worker with college education and proven experience in her field, you will pay $13,000 in fees and wait 20 years. Out of this chaos we need to build a 21st Century migration system.
What will it take to get moving again?
First we need to choose a path at the proverbial fork for dealing with unauthorized immigrants already here. To deal with the issue systemically, rather than on a piece meal basis, one path would be to massively expand the current rate of deportations. It would be at an unknown and surely significant economic, legal, and social cost. Two consecutive Presidents, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, have rejected the notion that the U.S. could mount a one-time massive experiment rounding up and deporting 11 million folk.
There is another path. It is based on the idea of belonging and consent in a democracy and what Sigal Ben Porath of the University of Pennsylvania calls "shared fate." We propose a set of coherent principles requiring unauthorized migrants here to pass a "belonging threshold." These principles privilege the foundations of social cohesion and shared fate in a plural society: meaningful family ties, work, and community roots. Those with a history of work, paying taxes, good character, and engagement in the public sphere by learning the language, U.S. history, and about U. S. government would be eligible to regularize their immigration status. It is constructed on the bedrock of consent in the mutual relationship between the nation and individuals with a record of engagement in jobs, in neighborhoods, and in the public sphere. Unauthorized immigrants are not unknown entities from another galaxy: we have sealed our shared fate by bringing them into our homes as nannies and gardeners, by hiring them to cook our meals at restaurants and to clean our bathrooms in hotels, by making them our co-workers, our fellow worshipers at church, our children's classmates and friends. It would add nothing that is not de facto already part of the family of the nation.
Working out the details of a program to end the dystopia is hardly rocket science. It will require political muscle and bipartisanship. Any serious, disinterested researcher in the field of immigration will tell you what a real formula -- alas, not another formula for fool's gold -- will look like. But first the administration and congress will need to find the political will to make migration work. This is not likely to happen, if at all, until after the midterm elections. If the mid-term elections are a debacle for Barack Obama and he is destined to be a one-term president, perhaps it will take a new "Nixon-to-China" moment when a new Republican president succeeds where President George W. Bush failed.
The possible combinations to make migration work are few and obvious. We would suggest a three-phase program of action. Passing each phase would be a rite de passage moving folk into the open. The first phase would be the creation of a national registry where unauthorized immigrants who have been here for three years would sign an affidavit acknowledging their unlawful entry into the United States. Second, they would undergo a background security check. They would supply evidence of a meaningful history of work and tax payments. Lastly they would furnish proof of good character in the form of three affidavits from community leaders such as a supervisor, a teacher, or a religious figure.
In the second phase, those who qualify would pay a $6,500 fine that would serve both as a penalty and for breaking the law upon entry and as a fee to cover the program's costs ($6,500 is half what it costs the average U.S. employer today in fees to process and recruit a new immigrant worker from overseas. It is only slightly more than what immigrants now pay coyotes at the border to cross them illegally.) Lastly, in a third phase, they would complete a course study of English, U.S. history, and U. S. government. The courses would serve as a foundation for a systemic integration strategy, which should be in place for all new Americans, see here.
This plan would work if at the same time the incentives for further unauthorized immigration were meaningfully reduced by, inter alia, clamping down on unscrupulous employers hiring workers without papers. Of course, good fences make for good neighbors. With the good news of dramatically slowed attempted crossings at the border, there is now a window of opportunity. Given what we know about the unauthorized immigrants in our midst, it is safe a safe bet that the majority would sign up, qualify, and pass the threshold.
It is time to create a rational and principled path out of the shadows. Anything less will keep us where we don't want to be, in The United States of Helplessness.
Marcelo M. Suárez-Orozco and Carola Suárez-Orozco are Co-Directors of Immigration Studies @ NYU. Their forthcoming book is entitled, Lifting the Lamp: Shedding Light on Immigration Dilemmas.
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Illegal Immigration has flooded the unskilled labor markets with workers. This is where unemployment is highest in the USA. It is estimated that 50% of Family Reunification Visas are granted are to people considered to be in the unskilled labor market. It is easy to see why the legal process can take so long for so many in a system where immigration is controlled and yet rampant by-passing is tolerated.
American Politicians turned a blind eye to illegal immigration and illegal businesses hiring practices for their own selfish reasons. If we really needed the extra half million workers per year coming illegally all we needed to do was increase legal immigration by that amount. If justice is what should prevail would it not be true justice if we increased immigration for those who have waited legally for a very long time in concert with increased deportation of those who broke the law to come here illegally?
It is true that many have family here then they should get a lot more expedited movement in the line. We need to fix the mess our system is now, but we don't need more unregistered foriegners to deal with.
We don't really need to import any more workers if we can't employ American citizens, regardless of wants of other countries and our corporate giants.
And securing the border is all our job. Mexico does not want to see it secure because it provides too much of their national bread and butter. They blame us for their drug cartels killing citizens in their country. They fight any move we make to even identify their citizens here. They would rather assist smugglers than stop them. They don't want our help.
And these are good neighbors?
We need to change our relationship with Mexico before we start normalizing unregistered foriegn nationals.
Basic would be extened to 6 months. The basic course would run for 8 to 10 weeks. During this timeyou will be schooled in English. Look 16/17 hour days tough. After basic you would be taught full time But your day does not end there.You will clean-up think of extened KP
This is just some the basic. If you are dishonorble Discharged.not only you but your family is deported
This is no cake walk It will HARD. You just can not expect somethig to be handed to you
But if you serve YOUR COUNTRY at the end of your enlistment YOU BECOME A AMERICAN.SO DOES YOUR FAMILY
GOOD ENOUGH TO SERVE GOOD ENOUGH TO BE A CITIZEN. PEROID
Staggering?
10,000,000 illegals making $6 an hour is $60,000,000 an hour times 40 hours times 52 weeks and we are losing $124,800,000,000 in wages that should be going to (a) american citizens or (b) deadbeat parents.
This does not cover the costs of health care and all the rest. So 14.9 billion invested is not 'staggering'; it's 'couch change'.
They do jobs we don't want to do? Horse-manure. The government has on it's website statistics showing there are 15,000,000 outstanding child support orders and $32,000,000,000 in owed arrears, and unemployment of 18 to 21 uneducated youth is over 20%. There are millions available (as there have always been) to do the entry level jobs.
NAFTA, illegals, paying welfare to and for a 41% out of wedlock birth rate, outrageous corporate and personal subsidies and welfare, out of control deficit spending, over paid union and government/municipal worker contracts and pensions, and the good ship SS PONZI have put us into the mess we are in.
And what's everyone talking about? Some silly tax rate change, (tax rates do not significantly affect government revenue which has always averaged about 18 to 20% of GDP regardless of rates).
We are simply rearranging the decks chairs.
2. These illegal immigrants are not IN THE SHADOWS. They are driving, working, shopping, sitting the emergency rooms of hospitals, stealing, robbing, murdering, THEY ARE NOT paying taxes unless you count the miniscute amount on purchasing goods or taken from their false paycheck written on false identities.
3. $ 6500 is an insult. The Author details the cost in the billions for the border why would an American consider less than the percapita cost of each illegal immigrant ? At $14Bil a year and 300K crossing the border I make that out to be $46K per person.
4. If we deported the ENTIRE STOCK of illegal immigrants in the US and SHUT DOWN THE BORDER entirely I"d be open to discussing speeding up migration LEGALLY from 20 years to 5. But without stopping the flow at the border we're just granting AMNESTY.
5. Illegals aren't rescheduling their COYOTE run because of the economy. Even on the bad day the US has 100 times the opportunity as Mexico. What a joke of an observation.
6. I also agree the 14th Amendment needs to be redressed. If your illegally in the US, your new born is NOT an American in most peoples eyes. In order to be an American born a person SHOULD have at least ONE parent who's here LEGALLY.
7. English ? Thats a joke.
/sarcasm off
I agree, I hate the term unauthorized immigrant. They are illegal, they are breaking a law (civil or otherwise). The pro-illegal crowd use terms like this to make them sound nice and misunderstood.
Personally, I woiuld like to be an illegal in Canada, but they are tougher on such folks as me and they won't let me immigrate either. I have looked at Australia, and I am banned from immigrating there too because I am too old.
So don't try to tell us it can't be done when it HAS been done.
Q: Did Eisenhower deport 13 million illegal immigrants? Did Hoover and Truman use mass deportations to open jobs for U.S. citizens?
A: No. Nothing close to 13 million persons were deported during any administration. All three of these presidents wrestled with a rising tide of illegal immigration, but a long-running chain e-mail makes bogus claims about them.
What we need now is to free up all the jobs the illegals are currently doing, give them to our own legal residents at decent wages / benefits so that they are off unemployment and paying taxes into the coffers of the feds and the states and give all illegals and their anchor babies a one way ticket back to their own country.
We need Congress to change the 14th so that unless one parent is here legally you dont get automatic citizenship if you are born here.
Once thats done along with no more visas; lets see how its working and then we can talk about "comprehensive" reform but our guess is by doing all of this along with our other suggestions is going to make being here very unattractive and they will self deport so all we would need to do in the future is keep up on the employers.
Its time to state enough is enough and this country needs to take care of its own citizens before it helps anyone else. Go home and help your own country; fight for your own country and stop dragging this country down to your 3rd world level.
Who gets to decide if they are a threat or not? Obviously NOT the government of the countries since you refuse to let them decide who may come in or not. So I guess that YOU will volunteer to be that oracle and have us lesser mortals accept YOUR WORD from on high?
Typical elitist crap. I have a better idea in that we need to drive down wages for all, not just the poorly educated black,.brown, and white folks. I suggest we open our borders to allow any person with a college degree into the US ASAP. THAT will force wages down for the upper classes and make them feel what their poorer American brothers and sister are experiencing.
What to do with the millions of Americans who would do this work including our own teenagers but who cant find work due to the presence of so many illegals? who would expect decent wages and conditions.
The only fair thing to do is take in no more legal immigrants a year. Real id for everyone here legally; one for citizens and one for legal residents. Make all work prove you have the right to work to do it. Allow no more visa holders and if you have a current one; its not renewed when it expired since we expect the companies who need the visa holders to hire legal residents of the USA and if they want to outsource the work; we tax them for every job; for every year its not available to a legal resident of the USA.
Ag work is the exception to this. No more independent contract work. It all comes under the I 9. We are going to audit every company who gave out a 1099 in the past 5 years to see if they allowed any illegals to work and fine them as well since its tax evasion and also working under someone else's ssn is also illegal.
The term "unauthorized immigrant" is legally and technically accurate. Why don't you call the mostly white, English speaking, American citizen people who hire undocumented immigrants "illegals"? What they're doing HAS been criminalized.
That is an outright LIE! It is a criminal matter which IS a misdemeanor for the first offense, but becomes a felony on the next one. A visa overstay is NOT a criminal offense, but is simply an administrative civil matter. There is a good reason for that since the visa overstayers were INVITED to come here, and we know WHO they are, did a background check on them. The ones who did not enter legally are criminals under all definitions of the term.
All the pro-illegal groups have fought tooth and nail to prevent employer enforcement actions and have succeeded, so that is a dead letter too. There is a good reason there is a deadlock on this subject because the pro-amnesty people will not allow any enforcement measure or securing the border. As long as that is their position and the border stays wide open with no fencing or other barriers.this will never happen. Hell the pro-illegals don't want the cops to know who are the people they arrest! They oppose even fingerprint screening of arrested people. As long as you have this absurdity on the one side, you can kiss the CIR goodbye.