As a Democrat, predictably, I find all of the presidential candidates and the policies they support anathema to everything I believe this country needs right now. Their "solutions" are regurgitated failures that have been tried before and are a big reason President Obama inherited an economy on the brink of another Great Depression.
As a Latina however, I find myself scratching my head and wondering whether the GOP candidates even know - or care - there is a powerful and growing Latino voting population in critical swing states that hold the key to any Republican who wants to work in the Oval Office.
During the last several GOP Presidential debates, I sat dumbfounded on several instances where the GOP candidates were unwilling or frankly, unable to even articulate a single thing they would do to capture the Latino vote. When that question was posed at the GOP Tea Party debate, not one candidate mentioned how they would create additional jobs for Latinos, or create additional economic opportunity. Instead, they tripped over each over trying to see who could use the phrase "government dole" more times, and who would do a better job of keeping the "illegals" out. It was downright offensive.
One could argue the GOP candidates are playing to their base. This would explain their insistence on building the border fence, being against the Dream Act, and attacking Perry for having been on the "wrong" side of both of these issues. But unfortunately, if you look at the recent history of GOP candidates across the board and how they have run their campaigns, it seems the truth is much more disturbing.
Since 2005 when Jim Sensenbrenner authored the draconian and extreme Border Protection, Anti-terrorism and Illegal Immigration Control Act which passed the House with 92% of Republicans supporting it, the Republican Party did an extreme about-face when it comes to talking to Latino voters and trying to capture their votes.
The result? Democrats won back the House in 2006, Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, and Democrats retained the Senate in the face of a tremendous Republican wave in 2010. While not the sole reason all of the above happened, a very large part of why these happened can be rightly attributed to Latinos supporting Democrats and rejecting the vile anti-immigrant/anti-Hispanic stances of Republicans in the last four years.
If the Republicans don't learn to speak respectfully to Latinos who are business owners, managers, doctors, nurses, academics, mothers, fathers, teachers, police officers, firefighters, and yes, working people just trying to make a living, 2012 will be no different.
Matthew Dowd, a Republican pollster said in 2004 that if George W. Bush did not garner at least 40% of the Latino vote in that year's election, he would not be elected. He got exactly that. So imagine if in 2004, the required GOP Latino vote share was 40%, in 2012, after an explosion of growth around the country and in key battleground states that percentage has got to be at least 44 or 45% if not more. But for the sake of keeping things statistically correct, let's stick with 40%. In a few recent polls by Latino Decisions, a polling firm specializing in polling Latinos, the vote share for the Republican Party does not break 19%. That is a 21 point, jaw-droppingly huge gap the Republicans need to bridge in order to have a prayer of winning the White House in 2012.
It is no wonder Republican elders like Jeb Bush are sternly reminding the GOP how foolish it is to alienate Latino voters with offensive, over-the-top rhetoric that does nothing but drive Latinos to support Democrats if only to punish a party by letting them know their words have consequences. Just ask Sharon Angle in Nevada, who famously told a group of Latino students that many of them "looked Asian" to her. She ended up with 9% of the Latino vote and handed Harry Reid the election.
But let's get back to the 2012 candidates. On every single issue that is important to Latinos - jobs, education, health care, small businesses, Social Security, and yes, immigration, the GOP presidential candidates are on the complete opposite side.
On jobs, the GOP candidates would drastically slash budgets and programs that would help keep Latinos employed or help the millions of unemployed Latinos across the country. On education, the GOP candidates would slash education investment and Pell Grants which have given hundreds of thousands of Latino students the chance to go to college. The GOP candidates would all repeal "Obamacare," when it has provided 9 million Latinos health care coverage who didn't have it before. We already know what the GOP wants to do with Social Security - if they are not calling it a Ponzi scheme and saying it is unconstitutional, they want to privatize it and put it in the hands of Wall Street. Social Security kept 20 million Americans out of poverty including almost half of Latino seniors.
On immigration, what Republicans don't understand is what Latinos hear when GOP candidates say "We are for legal immigration but against illegal immigration." When the GOP makes this statement, they normally follow it up with something like "we need to secure the border first." To Latinos, this is code for "We will never support a path to legalization for the millions of 'illegals' who are here."
Again, the GOP is playing to their base, offering extreme right-wing platitudes and no real solutions, and continuing to alienate Latinos in the process. This is not a policy answer to the more than 12 million undocumented immigrants who are here and are not going anywhere anytime soon.
Republicans had better the heed the advice of many of their strategists and elected officials who understand their ultimate fate can very well be in the hands of Latino voters in 2012. If the things that come out of their mouths don't change, the only way they will ever see the inside of La Casa Blanca is via a guided tour.
Asher Smith: Present-Day Republican Rage Pre-Dates the Tea Party
Will Bunch: The Tea Party, Right-Wing Media and the Dog That Didn't Bark
Julio Salgado: Queer, Undocumented and Unafraid
Conrad Black: Would a Serious GOP Candidate Please Cut in?
What I don't hear is how to mobilize Latinos in support of the Democrats who are actually willing to help Hispanic causes. So forget about the Republicans and get behind those Democrats!
The GOP have two candidates
Romney
Perry
The only difference in the 2008 election was (a) college students voting enmasse for Obama (b) white rural swing voters in conservative states, Missouri, West Virginia etc.. (c) Hispanics rise in voting % by as much as 9% in some states (swing states!).
Obama will lose the white rural swing vote no doubt but he will gain all of the Hispanic vote this time not just 3/4 per state. And college students routinely vote liberal and you're going to see college student vote numbers make US history in 2012.
Romney is a Mormon and thinks a corporation is a person. Do some homework, not even Teaparty members will vote for Romney and certainly not the 49% of citizenry who voted for Obama.
Perry wants Creationism in grammar school science class taught as a science. That's laughable. On a national stage he'll be routed by Obama. He's too far rightwing.
Illegals cannot vote and even eligible Hispanics are so frightened about US government contact they often don't vote at all. So your projection that getting illegals to vote Democratic is absurd.
1 Swing voters who usually vote republicans and who reside in heavily republican conservative areas of the country, West Virginia, Missouri, etc... White rural and suburbanite hillbillies gave him a chance.
2 Young college age citizens who increased their voice considerably in the 2008 election nationwide. They saw a younger candidate who was a dedicated academic like themselves.
3 Hispanic voters who increased their voting percentages from 5- 9 % in 5 key swing states, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada etc.. who usually vote more conservatively.
Hispanics voted for Obama 2:1 over McCain and McCain is seen as a republican supporter of Hispanic issues.
I would love Romney to talk about his immigration policy ideas for border states, it will sink his ass further.
Perry will get a nominal Hispanic vote but lose 3:1 white racist voters from the Teabaggers. On a national stage however it wont matter because those same white racist voters will have no choice but to vote Perry. If the teabaggers have an plan they'll denounce Perry now or fail in 2012.
Either way Obama wins. There is no republican candidate. The teabaggers have seen to it they will lose.
However a slightly smaller percentage but still overwhelming believe "A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP" must be improved from what it is now. Granted that path should be a matter of national debate and not unilaterally decreed by a single beaurocrat.
If you want a politician to embrace A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP and not be punished for granting AMNESTY you need a coherent public debate.
Pathing to citizenship has some very complex components that challenge existing immigration laws, foreign policy and economic consequences. It's less about racism and more about law. If you push average Americans into a corner on generalizing about Illegal Immigrants as a priority over Job creation, over the economic crisis, over medicare, over the war in Afghanistan you'll lose hard and ugly.
All presidential candidates know they will reform immigration law but not all of them will admit to it on a national stage except Obama who even though talks a good game knows the American voter (even liberal ones) oppose "Amnesty".
Lets face a few facts
1 They are here now
2 At the rate they are being deported they'll be here til Justin Beiber is a great granddad
3 They are not voluntarily leaving even with E-verify
4 Now they're here and jobless making their community worse
As part of a Path to Citizenship they should be given options:
A.) Must register and obtain a Soc Sec No. and finger printed
B.) Must return to country of origin after filing application and wait 6 mo.s while the US evaluates their application
C.) Must know fluent English, written and spoken
D.) Volunteer for helping Senior citizens, veterans and or join the US Military for a period of no less than 6 years.
Of course they'll need to have an impeccable law abiding record.
If a man can speak english fluently and is willing to protect my back incountry in hostile environment, he can be my neighbor any day. English is important because the military only uses english. Without it men could die. Must be able to communicate well. If he'll watch my back I'll protect his. Few Americans have the courage or dedication to serve so I think anyone who volunteers to serve is proof they will be good Americans. I'd be proud to call them friend.
Por que crees que la gente del sur arriesga su vida para venir a este pais???. Crees que quieren otro Salvador o Peru???
Lastima de ideales que tienes. Esos ideales han destruido el resto de America.
Littole problem with her logic is any repub who even hints at amnesty will loose before they even start. Just as most dem candidates will also. An overwhelming majority of people object to amensty under any fancy name.
Look at how many votes McCain got with his push for amnesty? Very few. How many did he loose due to his stance? Lots.
Face it latinos are not going to vote in majority for a repub no matter what else they promise. But any repub who goes down that road will loose FAR more votes then they would gain.
Just look at the outrage over the seemingly golden boy, Perry after he came out in support of in-state tuition. That may cost him the race and it was not anywhere as distasteful as amnesty.
Nope they don't give A damn, but will play the game right on up to the finishline, so its up to the Latino community to send a STRONG message to the GOP'ers ! RePugs only want you for house-cleaning and then they will quickly ship you back over the boarder and smile for the camera while doing so ......... don't think so ....... just keeeeeeeep watching and listening to the rhetoric
Your insights as a political strategist are right on target.
I was reading some of the comments here. To answer to the naive people here who talk about all of us "being American first" and getting unnecessarily defensive, please know we Latinos are well aware that we all are American first. In fact, you won't find a more grateful and loyal segment to the USA. Unlike some American born citizens who all do is whine and complaint without appreciating what a privilege it is to be a citizen here, we Latinos work hard to become citizens and be able to vote, and we don't take it for granted. Yes, we take our right to vote very seriously, as much as we take pride in being Americans.
From the point of view of political campaigns you bet any smart politician who wants to get elected will pay attention to the population segment whose vote they court. These numbers MAKE A DIFFERENCE, and they are looking at the Latino vote, like it or not.
Maria Cardona's point of view here is that of a political strategist.
People need to stop taking things out of proportion. It makes them sound uninformed and unsophisticated.
We are in this together, and should not be looking at our differences to point fingers and create discord. There are enough people already invested in that. Let's stick together while still appreciating our differences, which in the end, will be our strength.
Well done!
Looks like they won't be saying, "Everybody comes to Rick's," either.
Could be it is time they join with just Average Americans across this nation and begin rebuilding this great land!