iOS app Android app

Mark Blumenthal
GET UPDATES FROM Mark Blumenthal
Mark Blumenthal is the Head of Election Polling at SurveyMonkey. Previously, he served as the senior polling editor of the Huffington Post, and the founding editor of Before starting his “Mystery Pollster” blog in 2004, Mark worked in the political polling business for more than 20 years, conducting and analyzing political polls and focus groups for candidates as well as market research for corporations.

Entries by Mark Blumenthal

Polling: Crisis or Not, We're in a New Era

(0) Comments | Posted June 6, 2016 | 9:14 PM

This year's Democratic primary in Michigan marked one of the biggest errors in polling history.

Combined polling averages showed Hillary Clinton leading by 18 percentage points or more, but she still ended up losing to Bernie Sanders by 1.5 percentage points, setting what may be a...

Read Post

Were The Iowa Polls Wrong? Maybe They Were Just Too Early

(0) Comments | Posted February 2, 2016 | 8:44 PM

Although the polls failed to predict Ted Cruz's Iowa win on Tuesday night, it isn't because they were dead wrong.

They just ended too early.

Consider this: SurveyMonkey data from Iowa showed a seismic shift among GOP caucus goers in the final week -- with Donald J. Trump losing...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Social Media Leaves Hazy Picture Of Debate Reactions

(0) Comments | Posted October 30, 2015 | 8:20 AM

DONALD TRUMP GENERATES THE MOST TWEETS AGAIN, BUT FEWER THAN IN PAST DEBATES - Amobee Brand Intelligence: "For the third consecutive Republican Presidential Debate, Donald Trump was the candidate generated the most real-time Tweets but unlike in the previous two debates that was anything but a...

Read Post

Pollster Stan Greenberg Urges Democrats Not To Run For Obama's 'Third Term'

(1) Comments | Posted October 29, 2015 | 2:50 PM

Bill Clinton's former pollster thinks it's a mistake for Democratic presidential candidates to essentially run for President Barack Obama's "third term." 

"That's not what the country wants. It's not what the base of the Democratic Party wants," said longtime Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg,...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Ben Carson Rises To First Place In Iowa

(0) Comments | Posted October 23, 2015 | 7:26 AM

NEW POLLING SHOWS CARSON LEADING IN IOWA - John McCormick: "Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has moved into a dominant position in Iowa, surpassing former front-runner Donald Trump as evangelical Christians begin to coalesce around him...

Read Post

With Biden Out, Clinton Likely To Get A Bump In The Polls

(13) Comments | Posted October 21, 2015 | 2:21 PM

Hillary Clinton, already seeing an uptick from her strong performance in the first Democratic...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Bernie Sanders Wins Focus Groups And Social Media, But Hillary Clinton Wins Post Debate Polls

(3) Comments | Posted October 16, 2015 | 7:39 AM

DEMOCRATIC VOTERS GIVE CLINTON DEBATE WIN - HuffPollster: "Tuesday's Democratic presidential debate on CNN did what debates usually do, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll. It allowed the two leading candidates to make a positive impression on an audience of millions....

Read Post

Sanders Gains With Democratic Activists, But Clinton Still Leads

(10) Comments | Posted October 12, 2015 | 4:57 PM

Sen. Bernie Sanders' surging poll numbers and record-breaking crowds have convinced his party's grassroots base to take him more seriously as a viable nominee, a new HuffPost/YouGov survey of Democratic activists finds.

But the shift may not be enough to...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Gallup Bows Out Of Primary Polling

(0) Comments | Posted October 9, 2015 | 7:48 AM

'GALLUP GIVES UP THE HORSERACE' - Steven Shepard: "Gallup has been the country's gold standard for horse-race election polling ever since its legendary founder, George Gallup, predicted Franklin Roosevelt's landslide reelection in 1936. But after a bruising 2012 cycle, in which its polls were farther off than most...

Read Post

Republican Activists Increasingly Favor Outsider Candidates

(0) Comments | Posted October 8, 2015 | 5:46 PM

The most politically active Republicans -- those who participate in politics and follow it most closely -- now look remarkably like the rest of their party in their affinity for a trio of candidates with nontraditional backgrounds, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll of activist Republicans conducted in...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Surveys Show Fading Support For Donald Trump

(0) Comments | Posted October 2, 2015 | 8:12 AM

TRUMP'S GOP SUPPORT AND RATINGS FADE - Kathy Frankovic: "Although businessman Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP field when it comes to presidential preference of those registered voters who think of themselves as Republican, he is by no means the best-liked contender for Republicans for...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Pollsters Debate If Modern Surveys Can Be Trusted

(0) Comments | Posted September 25, 2015 | 8:40 AM

Survey response rates have hit all-time lows, yet telephone pollsters argue their samples can still be representative and accurate. Online pollsters, whose methods don't include starting by selecting respondents at random, argue their methods produce reliable results.

A panel of experts convened at

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Some Republicans Less Likely to Support Donald Trump Out Loud

(1) Comments | Posted September 18, 2015 | 8:39 AM

'MODE EFFECT' APPARENT IN TRUMP POLLING - The involvement of an interviewer appears to dampen support for Donald Trump slightly in surveys on the 2016 Republican race, according to a chart prepared by Democratic research analyst Jon Robinson. “Trump support among polls without an interviewer has...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Remembering Legendary Pollster Andrew Kohut

(0) Comments | Posted September 11, 2015 | 8:08 AM

REMEMBERING ANDREW KOHUT - Andrew Kohut, the pollster who founded and led the Pew Research Center, died on Wednesday of complications from leukemia at the age of 73. Tributes immediately poured in from across the spectrum of survey research from those who knew him as a...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Clinton Ratings Fall, Biden Gets A Bump

(0) Comments | Posted September 4, 2015 | 7:46 AM

ECONOMIST/YOUGOV FINDS 'BIDEN BUMP' - Kathy Frankovic: "The possibility that Vice President Joe Biden might enter the 2016 Democratic nomination contest has boosted his support among Democrats [from 14 to 21 percent]. At the same time, continued discussion of Hillary Clinton’s use of a...

Read Post

Here's When You Can Expect Primary Polls To Really Start Mattering

(0) Comments | Posted August 28, 2015 | 3:53 PM

The 2016 campaign already feels like it's been going on forever. But if one thing's been consistent over the past three presidential elections, it's that closely contested primaries don't tend to start shaking out until considerably later in the election cycle. 

As GOP strategist Patrick Ruffini points out with...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Support For The GOP Frontrunner Might Just Be Overstated

(2) Comments | Posted August 28, 2015 | 8:10 AM

EVIDENCE THAT TRUMP'S SUPPORT OVERSTATED, BUT NOT BY MUCH - Nate Cohn: "Ever since Donald Trump has risen to the top of the polls, Republican strategists have questioned whether those polls might be overestimating his support. There is evidence to support that theory...[in] polling data provided...

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: How Much Are Pollsters Really Getting Paid?

(0) Comments | Posted August 21, 2015 | 7:45 AM

Most pollsters wish they were paid as well as Donald Trump thinks they are, but FEC filings show that so far few if any are.

In an interview with New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, the real estate...

Read Post

Why Trump's 25 Percent Is Not Enough

(0) Comments | Posted August 18, 2015 | 4:12 PM

Two new national polls show Donald Trump continuing to lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. But a combination of basic arithmetic and Politics 101 helps explain why the real estate mogul remains a long way from the support necessary to secure the 2016 Republican nomination.

Read Post

HUFFPOLLSTER: Is Bernie Sanders Really Leading In New Hampshire?

(8) Comments | Posted August 14, 2015 | 8:03 AM

ABOUT THAT NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL - A new Boston Herald-Franklin Pierce University poll released earlier this week found Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with a not-quite statistically significant 44 percent to 37 percent lead in New Hampshire over former Secretary of State...

Read Post