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Caucus & Entrance Poll Results Thread

Posted: Updated:

Since news organizations are free to release entrance poll tabulations as soon as they have them, we will likely see results soon and from multiple sources. Marc Ambinder has some early headlines:

CBS: CLINTON, OBAMA BATTLING FOR FIRST

EDWARDS TRAILING;

NOEDGE TO ROMNEY OR HUCKABEE

FROM ENTRANCE POLLS

RICHARDSON SUPPORTERS SAID

BE MOVING IN LOCKSTEP TO OBAMA

On MSNBC, Keith Olberman just read essentially the same broad description. All sorts of live blogging is occurring. Please feel free to post links to anything interesting in the comments.

8:15 - (all times Eastern): Tim Russert a few moments ago on MSNBC: "It seems to be, based on our early data, with Clinton, Obama in neck-and-neck, a lot more women, a lot more independents and a lot more young people than voted in '04. How they divide up in those three critical areas determines whether Obama or Clinton wins the caucuses."

8:20 - More from Ambinder: "On Dem side, half are first-timers, according to entrance polls... half say they made up their minds early...Back to that Hiawatha, Iowa precinct: turnout DOUBLED from last cycle, to 333...from 129." Hiawatha is a suburb of Cedar Rapids.

8:32 - Context on "half are first-timers:" The percentage of first-time caucus goers reported on the 2004 entrance poll was 55%. However, between 2000 and 2004, turnout grew from 61,000 to 122,000. Most of the pre-caucus polls the reported it put the share of first-time caucus goers between 20% and 35%. But the last Des Moines Register poll put it at 60%.

8:35 - Via The Page: "AP reports large crowds could delay entire process in nearly 1,800 spots throughout the state."

8:40 - MSNBC just reported actual delegate counts based on 8% of precincts: Edwards 35%, Clinton 32%, Obama 30%. However, these early reports come mostly from smaller precincts which, as I understand it, are more likely to be rural. For what it's worth, the Register poll reported vote preference among rural voters as 30% Edwards, 25% Clinton, 24% Obama.

8:44 - Ambinder again: " OBAMA CAMPAIGN PREDICTING 200,000 TURNOUT"

8:45 - MSNBC now reporting Obama and Huckabee ahead in the entrance poll, and they are starting to report specific numbers from the entrance poll. Presumably the analysts are now comfortable with their weighting and estimates to report specific numbers.

8:55 - CNN just projected Huckabee the winner of the Republican caucus.

9:15 - Yet more Ambinder: "OBAMA LEADING IN ENTRANCE POLLS / YOUNG VOTER TURNOUT LARGE"

9:26 - NBC News projects Barack Obama the winner of the Iowa Caucuses.

10:05 - CNN has now posted entrance poll tabulations for the Democrats and Republicans in Iowa. MSNBC has comparable tables for Democrats and Republicans (remember, the underlying data is the same).

Composition of Democratic caucus-goers:

  • 57% first time caucus goers
  • 40% age 17-44 (was 32% in 2004)
  • 25% Independent/Republican/Other (was 20% in 2004)