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Enjoy The Holiday Weekend 'Outliers'

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Gallup finds no increase in job creation.

Charlie Cook says Democrats should be "very frightened" about Obama's sharp drop among independents; Politico's Arena posts many responses, including one from our friend Greg Dworkin ("DemFromCt").

Joel Benenson sends a memo (pdf) to Democrats on the Hill.

The Wall Street Journal reports on Democratic pollsters telling liberal advocates the public option "wouldn't fly."

Keith Olberman speculates about a primary challenge to Obama; Ben Smith, Tom Jensen and Chris Bowers say not a chance.

The Pew Research Center shares crosstabulations showing Obama's approval ratings slide.

Gary Langer assesses Obama's slide.

David Wasserman asks if angry white seniors will hold the keys to 2010 (via Schaller).

Nate Silver thinks Obama's speech will be big.

Chris Bowers looks hard at Rasmussen and the national house ballot.

Steve Benen shares a few thoughts on Obama's approval rating polls.

Chris Weigant sees erosion in Obama's base.

Kos reports results showing the public option "still polling strongly."

Jay Cost suggests changes in course for Obama.

Neil Newhouse and Lisa Valentine celebrate the Obama descent.

Tom Jensen digs into Obama approval and changes in Party ID nationally and in states.

Andrew Gelman corrects a report on the ANES weighting.

AAPOR posts video of an August DC-AAPOR polling panel on health care (audio better than video, presentations here).

Join the R Flashmob Project (via Gelman..and if you don't know what "R" is, don't bother).

Pollster.com celebrates a birthday (special bonus: also wins praise in Wisconsin).