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Lunchtime Status Update for 9-18

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Another 24 hours, another 17 new statewide polls on the presidential race. These include two new polls each three battleground states: Florida, Wisconsin and (surprising that it may be a battleground) Indiana.

The two new polls from Indiana shift Indiana on or map from lean McCain to toss-up. Both polls are first measurements for Indiana on the Obama-McCain race by their respective pollsters. CNN/ORC has McCain leading by six points (51% to 45%), while the Indianpolis Star/Selzer and Company have Obama ahead by three (47% to 44%). These two results, combined another close result from Howey-Gauge in late August, move our current estimate to a not quite 3 point lead for McCain (48.0% to 45.6), close enough for toss-up status given the typical sample sizes in Indiana.

The change cuts McCain's electoral vote total on our map from 219 to 208, while the toss-up total is now 87.

The afternoon should be a busy one, as we are expecting imminent releases of two sets of battleground polls from our colleagues: The first All State/National Journal Battleground surveys and the first Big Ten battleground surveys in six midwestern states, codirected by our own Charles Franklin.