THE BLOG
04/04/2008 05:34 pm ET Updated May 25, 2011

More on the Diageo-Hotline Poll

My colleague Matthew Gottlieb, polling editor of The Hotline, has posted a more in-depth analysis of the Diageo-Hotline poll (data, release) that we linked to earlier today. Some highlights:

Meanwhile in a McCain-Obama matchup, McCain leads 46%-44% – within the margin of error but a shift from Obama’s 48-40% lead in Feb. Since the previous poll, McCain’s support among Dems has nearly doubled from 8% to 15%; at the same time, Obama’s lead among Dems has dropped from 76% to 53%. McCain also bests Obama by 12% among Inds, although no trend data is available for this group.

Interestingly, in a general-election matchup with McCain, Obama performs better than Clinton among women – he leads McCain by 5%, while McCain and Clinton break even, 45%-45%. Additionally, in a McCain-Obama matchup, Obama carries 94% of black votes, but in a McCain-Clinton matchup, just 74% vote Clinton. What happens to this 20% of blacks? At least 9% defect to McCain, and 6% remain undecided. Another 6% refuse to answer – perhaps they plan to stay home in the event Obama is not on the ballot in Nov.

Speaking of these “revenge voters” – the potential calamities of the divisive Dem primary – the Diageo/Hotline poll offers further evidence they exist. In the McCain-Clinton Nov. matchup, 19% of Obama primary voters opt for McCain, versus 14% of Dems overall. The damage is even more pronounced in a McCain-Obama matchup, 29% of Clinton voters select McCain, compared to 15% of Dems overall.

He also notes a drop in the favorable ratings of both Clintons:

One of the most remarkable statistics in the latest poll is the drop in favorability suffered by both Hillary and Bill Clinton. Both the Senator and ex-POTUS now have net unfavorable ratings among RVs. He moved from a fav/unfav of 55%/41% in Feb. to 45%/51% now, while Hillary dropped from 54%/40% to 43%/53% over the same period.

I checked the favorable ratings among the 44% of registered voters that self-identify as Democratic primary voters (say they "typically vote in primary elections for national, state and local office [for] the Democratic Party candidates" - Q16).

  • Since January, Hillary Clinton's favorable rating among Democratic primary voters dropped from 88% to 70%, while her unfavorable rating increased from 12% to 26%. From January to March, her "strongly favorable" rating declined from 50% to 30%.
  • Over the same period, Barack Obama's ratings among Democratic primary voters remained roughly constant: 76% favorable, 18% unfavorable in January, 77% favorable, 17% unfavorable now. His very favorable rating has also changed little from January (42%) though March (44%).

See Gottlieb's Hotline OnCall analysis for much more.

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