12/13/2007 05:50 am ET Updated May 25, 2011

Moving Day "Outliers"

Janet Elder has a must read on the history of the pre-caucus surveys done by the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll.

Kathy Frankovic reminds us of the critical difference for presidential candidates between having "the most" experience and having "the right" experience.

Gary Langer examines the differences in the trial heat results in three recent national surveys (including his own ABC/Washington Post survey) and concludes we need to "cut back on fixation with the horse race."

Marc Ambinder looks at how the Iowa Democratic caucus math and process can turn a lead (on a poll) into a tie (on caucus night).

Michael Witney has the details and the text of an email questionnaire sent by the Clinton campaign to its donors (both via Ben Smith).

Mark Penn puts the Clinton campaign's spin on recent statewide polls. Jay Cost annotates.

AP says the Clinton campaign is testing negative ads in focus groups (via The Page).

Albert Hunt's widely linked column on "Tension in Hillaryland" also includes a summary of focus groups recently conducted in Philadelphia by non-aligned Democratic pollster Peter Hart.

Dante Scalia has another batch of media buy reports from New Hampshire's WMUR.

Carl Bialik has the story of an Oregon political consultant who has used a survey of sorts to predict the winner of the Heisman Trophy for the last six years.

And a bit of housekeeping information: We will be moving's world headquarters on Thursday afternoon, so our updates will likely be delayed during the afternoon.

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