Now that our trend estimates are appearing in the Slate Election Scorecard, with the daily twitches of our trend lines getting extra attention, I will try to provide some running commentary here on how the addition of new polls changes the trends from day to day.
One intriguing example comes from the new poll in New Hampshire out today from St. Anselm College.
This New Hampshire poll is the second in a row showing Hillary Clinton receiving 43% of the vote, above our trend line but consistent with its increasing upward slope. The new poll, and the addition of nearly two weeks to the trend since the last New Hampshire poll, helps push her score on our estimate up to 40.5%, a 1.2 point increase since the last update.
The continuing Clinton upward trend aside, however, the results also indicate some potentially good news for Obama. On the last four New Hampshire polls - all conducted since late September - Obama's share of the vote has been above our trend line: 22%, 21%, 23% and 22%. The five polls before that - all conducted in the prior month - were slightly lower: 17%, 16%, 18%, 17% and 19%. Remember, Professor Franklin set the sensitivity of these trend lines to minimize the impact of just one poll.
So the current Obama trend line (above) reflects the slight decline in Obama's New Hampshire support from earlier in the year. Still, the addition of the most recent result flattens that downward slope just slightly and, as such, increases our current estimate of his support slightly (from 19.4% to 19.5%) since the last update.
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