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New Hampshire Trends

Posted: Updated:

Now that our trend estimates are appearing in the Slate Election Scorecard, with the daily twitches
of our trend lines getting extra attention, I will try to provide some running
commentary here on how the addition of new polls changes the trends from day to
day.

One intriguing example comes from the new
poll
in New Hampshire
out today from St. Anselm College.

This New Hampshire
poll is the second in a row showing Hillary Clinton receiving 43% of the vote, above
our trend line but consistent with its increasing upward slope. The new poll,
and the addition of nearly two weeks to the trend since the last New Hampshire poll,
helps push her score on our estimate up to 40.5%, a 1.2 point increase since
the last update.

The continuing Clinton
upward trend aside, however, the results also indicate some potentially good news
for Obama. On the last four New
Hampshire polls - all conducted since late September -
Obama's share of the vote has been above our trend line: 22%, 21%, 23% and 22%.
The five polls before that - all conducted in the prior month - were slightly
lower: 17%, 16%, 18%, 17% and 19%. Remember, Professor Franklin set the
sensitivity of these trend lines to minimize the impact of just one poll.

10-25_NHTopzDems_sml.png

So the current Obama trend line (above) reflects the slight
decline in Obama's New Hampshire
support from earlier in the year. Still, the addition of the most recent result
flattens that downward slope just slightly and, as such, increases our current
estimate of his support slightly (from 19.4% to 19.5%) since the last update.

What makes this intriguing is that Obama started buying New Hampshire television
campaign ads in earnest roughly four
weeks ago
. So this is a trend worth watching very carefully.

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