THE BLOG

Pre-Caucus "Outliers"

01/03/2008 03:44 pm 15:44:33 | Updated May 25, 2011

Some stories nearly missed while I've been obsessing over Iowa...

My colleague, AAPOR President Nancy Mathiowetz, condemns the spread of fraudulent push-"polls" via interactive-voice-response and recommends we all start calling these "push calling" because aim to "to influence your impression of a candidate" while "surveys and polls want to elicit information from you."

Gary Langer looks at the track record of Iowa and New Hampshire at picking presidents and is unimpressed.

Kathy Frankovic examines whether "what happens in Iowa will determine the nominee" or affect the New Hampshire primary. Her answer: sometimes yes, sometimes no.

Ron Brownstein shares some demographic cross-tabs from the LA Times/Bloomberg surveys of Iowa and New Hampshire.

Frank Newport looks at Mike Huckabee's support in national surveys from highly religious Republicans.

Patrick Ruffini pours over the Republican exit poll from the 2000 New Hampshire primary and declares John McCain the prohibitive favorite to win the state in 2008.

Jay Cost posts a timely two-part "Primer on Momentum," summarizing what political scientists have concluded about the role of momentum in presidential primaries.

Dante Scalia argues convincingly that while both Barack Obama and John McCain win support from New Hampshire independents, few independents are deciding between Obama and McCain.

The Giuliani campaign releases a New Year's Eve poll memo entitled, "Looking Good."

Andrew Gelman links to an article by political scientists Bob Erikson and Chris Wlezien on whether political markets are superior to polls as election predictors.

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