THE BLOG
06/06/2007 02:12 pm ET | Updated May 25, 2011

Re: Obama-Clinton "Virtually Tied" or Not?

In response to my post
yesterday on the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, I received this comment
via email from USA Today Polling Editor Jim Norman:

Concerning
your question about whether our weekend poll had a higher percentage of
independents than the previous Gallup
one, the answer is "not really". Democrat-leaning independents
comprised 34% of the sample in our most recent question about the Democratic
race, 35% of the sample when the question was asked May 10-13.

A
look at other subgroups where Obama has been running well showed that there
were virtually no differences from the May poll to the one last weekend in the
percentages of (a) those with annual household incomes $75,000 and above; (b)
college grads; and (c) men. There was a change in the percentage of those
younger than 50, another good group for Obama, but they represented a smaller
proportion (35%) of our current poll than of the one in May (41%)

The
new numbers may be a function of the small sample, as Frank points out, but
it's not because of substantive changes in the proportions of the key subgroups.

Gallup's Frank Newport also emailed to say
that he would post more on this topic soon on his USA Today "Gallup Guru"
blog.