Obama and Hispanics: Another Myth Exposed

This election season has been full of myths. Hillary Clinton is the inevitable Democratic nominee. John McCain's days as a candidate are numbered. With the primary season past, the myths continue, in the face of contrary evidence. Among the most persistent, and most inaccurate, is the idea that Barack Obama has trouble attracting Hispanic support.

Since the beginning of the year, polls have shown Obama with a commanding lead over John McCain among Hispanics. Recent polls have confirmed this. And yet prominent political commentators continue to state that the Hispanic vote is up for grabs.

This is not some esoteric debate over a minor voting block. To misread Hispanic voters is to miss a fundamental dynamic of the presidential race. For all the talk about race and gender, it is ethnicity that may determine the next president of the United States.

Hispanics are the fastest growing demographic group in the country, and they turned out in the primaries in higher numbers relative to 2004 than any other segment of the population, except for voters under 30. As the presidential campaigns map out paths to 270 electoral votes, nearly every scenario involves winning a significant share of Hispanics, who will account for up to 1 in 10 voters in November.

At the top of almost every list of swing states are four with sizeable Hispanic electorates -- New Mexico (31 percent), Nevada (13 percent), Florida (11 percent) and Colorado (8 percent). George Bush won all four of these states in 2004 and all but New Mexico in 2000, but each one is likely to be competitive this year.

Throughout the primaries, Hispanics were solidly behind Hillary Clinton, who benefited from positive memories of her husband's presidency and an opponent whose record and background were little known to many Latinos. Obama's relatively weak performance among Hispanics in the primary has helped fan the idea that he has a Latino problem or that Hispanics are disinclined to vote for black candidates.

In fact, Obama is running well ahead of John McCain among Hispanics, and significantly better than John Kerry did against George Bush in 2004. Obama's leads in national polls are due to his strong advantage (about 35 points) among Latinos. Take out Hispanics, and the race is effectively tied.

The gains that Republicans made among Latino voters in 2000 and 2004 were erased in 2006, and there are few signs that McCain is in a position to win them back. The Republican brand name has been so severely damaged that it would be difficult for any Republican to retain much support among Hispanics this year.

George Bush's approval rating has plummeted to below 30 percent among Hispanics, just as it has among the general public. Half as many Hispanics have a favorable image of the Republican Party as of the Democrats.

Democrats also continue to retain their advantage as the party most attuned to Hispanics. In a poll earlier this year among Latino voters in California and the southwest, Democrats held a whopping 10 to 1 advantage as the party that understands the concerns of Hispanics. Obama also holds a lead among these voters of more than 20 points on the issue of most concern to Latinos (and voters overall): the economy.

McCain previously enjoyed a profile that could appeal to Hispanics in some ways. On immigration, for example, the Arizona senator joined with Senator Edward Kennedy to craft legislation that would give illegal immigrants a path to citizenship. But during his bid for the Republican nomination, McCain shifted right and distanced himself from his own bill.

Democrats cannot take the Hispanic vote for granted, however. Despite McCain's shift on immigration, he remains a formidable opponent. He is more competitive with Obama than a generic party match-up would suggest. McCain will likely seek to blunt the Democrats' advantage on the economy by stressing national security and social issues like abortion and gay marriage on which many Hispanics hold conservative views.

But Obama has an attractive profile for Hispanic voters. They are particularly impressed with his background as an urban community organizer and early opposition to the Iraq war.

The key for Obama and the Democrats to retaining Hispanic support will be to educate voters about the Senator's personal and political credentials and to frame the election around the economy. Obama's message of change, tax cuts for the middle class, and universal health care appeal to Hispanics, just as they resonate with voters overall. Lou Dobbs and Rush Limbaugh might imagine that Hispanics have interests that diverge from those of most Americans. But that's just another myth.

Comments

[wilburr0g]

McCain will overwhelmingly lose the hispanic vote(like any Republican would). Meanwhile, while trying not to lose it by such a landslide, he will alienate the base of his party, and deservedly so. He's caught between a rock and a hard place. That's what he gets for listening to his corporate masters and selling out America on trade, immigration and foreign policy. Adios, Senor! Hola Presidente Obama!

[LoyalOpposition]

This article is absolutely right on the money; speaking about money, McCain's wealthy lifestyle doesn't play well, while many Hispanic couples must work several jobs to help make ends meet.
I would just add that among the issues that Hispanics look at, is the promise of higher education or training to prepare for a career or job to provide a middle-class lifestyle for one's family. In addition, the horrible effect of this misbegotten war on the family and community is unfortunately born by those whose family fortunes do not begin to provide the resources to seek healthcare. Which brings us to the real deal breaker: The Iraq War's champion McCain is not looked on kindly for his cavalier attitude toward those who are actually out there now, not to mention that the specter that McCain places before us of our sons going to the Middle East for the next 100 years, cannot easily be erased. Before anyone forgets, the smiling, just folk routine of the sitting charlatan in the White House worked well for those too busy to question, but that old adage, fool me once, ... really will work in this instance, and mightly against the Republican candidates.

[NickNas]

I am a Black man who lives in San Diego California ( There are more than a few Latinos here ). My Children are Half Latino (Mexican) and I went FAR AND WIDE to find the Latinos who were having these " Major" Tensions with Blacks as Hillary and now McCain Claim and guess what? NONE.... Sure some Kids are still playing silly games and ALL Races are segregated in PRISONS but out here we are just FINE!!!!

Stop trying to drive a wedge between us and leave us alone.

That is all.

[SteveCox]

I think this is wishful thinking. My experience and from what I've seen from organazations like Voter Latino is that there is a divide between Hispanics that watch Telemundo and more mainstream Hispanics. It is the Spanish media folks that have a problem with a black candidate. My personal experience is there is indeed truth to this.

The vote may not be up for grabs, but you may very well just see people sit on their hands. Obama has work to do with Spanish speaking Hispanics. There is a black-brown divide in places like LA. Zogby had Obama up by 14 in polls and Hillary won by 10 in California. Someone better wake up that this is still an election or once again the Dems with snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Liberal2]

"....Obama has work to do with Spanish speaking Hispanics.­..."

Why? How many electoral college votes does Mexico have?

[SteveCox]

They print ballots in Spanish. Polls have him up 30 in cal. I bet that's off by 15. If there is any chance in Florida, he will need non-cuban hipanics and some younger Cubans. He has work to do. He needs to reassure these folks they will not be sucking hind teet in being a minority in America. That is the real fear.

Hipanics move into what were black neighborhoods. There is friction in many places in this nation. He has work to do to smooth out these old wounds.

[LeonBNJ]

The Hispanic/Latino citizens are a very diverse group. To see them all as one monilithic group is a big mistake for any political canidate. They are from or decendants of people from Puerto Rico, Cuba, Domincan Republic, Mexico, various Central American countries, Columbia and other South American coutries. Each of those sub-groups have their own issues within the USA and as to USA's policy to the countries of their orgins. Even the issue of immigration is very different among some in these sub groups (obiously none for those from PR, unique exemptions for those who get to the USA from Cuba and much for all other countries).
Still they do have some common interests like employment, retirement, health care and family security shared by all other Americans - Black, White, Asian, Hispanic, Native American and mixed race. That is where the battles need to be fought on.

[blackmouth]

You are absolutely right. I knew that the talking heads were wrong when they said that Hispanics would not support Obama. Hispanics are a lot smarter than the corporate media give us credit for. We know a little about who is going to help us and who is going to hurt us. The republicans only care for Hispanics if they are wealthy, I still do not understand why a Hispanic would support the Republicans in any way, shape or form?

[TuffPosh]

Like the song says, Viva Obama! He's got a lot to offer Hispanic voters: he supports giving driver's licences to illegal aliens, he supports taking college educations from U.S. citizens in order to give them to illegal aliens, he opposes the border fence, and so much more. And, Hispanic leaders are behind him 100%. In fact, he even marched at an event organized by those linked to the Mexican government. One of the main organizers of the march Obama attended is even an official with Mexico's PRD Party. If the PRD and the Mexican government are behind him, you know he must be good.

[Jazz42]

(TuffPosh)
It seems to me you got your talking points from Carl Rove,
making ignorant statements as he does.

[Liberal2]

Care to point out where the commenter was incorrect? Sounds like you're the ignorant, lying Rovian speaker.

[Brillig]

Only really intelligent people can make sarcasm work....

[Liberal2]

Follow your advice.

[rosal]

I see you are an expert on Latinos. Well, as a Latina my advice to you: Stay with issues you know something about. Too bad McClone flip-floped. He won't get the Latino vote.

[Gma11]

Barack's speech and question-and-answer session to the National Alliance of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO) earlier today will be reshown on C-Span at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time. He was excellent and his reception enthusiastic. Four hecklers had to be escorted out of McCain's presentation (which will be shown at 3:00). Please watch if at all possible.