7 Days in America: Obama Plays Defense on Rev. & Re-votes... with Daschle, Huffington, Green & Conason

It's one of the oldest sport stories -- the team ahead late in the game sits on its lead. That usually works, except when it doesn't. In a week of enormous news (a new 1929? a new New York governor!), 7 Days in America necessarily focused on yet two more potentially decisive moments in the most interesting presidential primary contest since ... well, since 104 ballots in 1924.

* Re-Votes. Speaking of sports, when Ted Williams entered the final day in 1941 hitting .3995 (or .400 rounded off), his manager suggested that he not play so he'd be the first player to hit .400 since 1930. Nope, said Ted, he was going to reach the magic mark swinging, not sitting. So he went 6-8 in a double-header and ended at .406.

Barack Obama is not Ted Williams when it comes to playing in Florida and Michigan. Based on what his lawyer and press aide have been saying -- so many complications ... so little time -- it's undeniable that they were foot-dragging to frustrate possible re-votes that could help Hillary Clinton erode his delegate lead if not reverse his popular vote margin.

Tactically, who could blame him? But Obama's strategy does create two real problems. First, it allows Clinton to blister him as "afraid" and as "disenfranchising" Latinos and Jews in Florida and working class blacks and whites in Michigan. That certainly conflicts with his philosophy of inclusion and enfranchisement -- and enhances her talking point in the upcoming, final contests that he says one thing, does another. Second, it will likely put Florida and Michigan out of reach in a General Election, which is no small sacrifice to the alter of securing the nomination.

* Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Anyone who read Dreams from My Father or watched Obama interviewed on Travis Smiley would understand why there's no one in American public life in a better position to be a racial bridge. His speech explaining Wright's rancorous remarks lived up to his billing -- or as columnist Nick Kristof wrote, "it wasn't a sound bite but a symphony." Obama's description of black and white racial grievances was especially convincing and penetrating.

But what worked racially may not have worked politically -- and 2008, for better or worse, is more about choosing a president than resolving racial tensions.

The liberal punditocracy loved it while conservatives were gleeful to link pastor and politician. But the real jury judging the speech are blue-collar workers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and elsewhere who pick presidents. I may not like it that Justice Anthony Kennedy alone can swing a divided Supreme Court, but he does. And readers may balk at this working class cohort being decisive in the Electoral College, but they are. When they favored Reagan, he won ... and when they favored Bill Clinton, he won.

This jury is still out post-Jeremiah Wright. Some early indicators, however, raise not black or white but red flags for Obama:

*Gallup tracking polls over the past week show a clear Obama lead slipping to a rough tie.

*In match-ups against McCain in Ohio and Florida, Clinton is doing, respectively, 9 points and 7 points better than Obama.

*One analysis of how states may go in the Electoral College, based on current polling, shows Clinton beating McCain by 63 electoral votes while Obama loses by 50 electoral votes.

Is this a primary blip or a general election trend?

7 Days Headliner and Obama co-chair Senator Tom Daschle may be right when he candidly acknowledges that this week's racial imbroglio "has been a very serious threat" to his candidate's prospects but he expects any short-term effect "to dissipate." And it's also true that if there had been no Bush Recession enhancing Clinton's economic message and no Rev. Wright tape depressing Obama's numbers, he would now be on a glide path to the nomination. But Clinton's economic message does seem to have popular traction and, while Obama's soaring speech probably has stemmed the bleeding, no one is smart enough to know the long-term political effect of Wright's scorching sermons.

So with another 5 million votes to go, there's still a competitive contest. Some who can't resist again counting Clinton out (Politico being the most recent example) should appreciate that Obama is now a good bet but not a sure bet. Her odds are long but still better than the Giants winning the SuperBowl at the end of the regular season:

* If Clinton measurably stays stronger versus McCain in Ohio, New Jersey, Florida - and if a big win in Pennsylvania creates a momentum that produces unexpected wins in Indiana and North Carolina -- superdelegates will likely flock to her as more likely to defeat McCain in November. (A third if: she'd also need to shrink his popular vote margin lead from 700,000 to 300,000, which is hard but do-able given her leads in Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico; then given her non-delegate, popular win by 300,000 in Florida, her camp could credibly argue that the popular vote after 35 million cast was a tie.)

*But if any of these IF's don't work -- and should Obama maintain his poise, his lead, and do as well as he hopes in Oregon and North Carolina -- then he's the nominee.

Watch for all this to be resolved by mid-June. For while Democrats may be split 50-50 in their affections, they 100% agree that their ultimate nominee needs four months, not two, to expose McCain as McBush. So based on final primaries and polls, superdelegates in mid-June -- lead by poobahs with names like Dean, Pelosi, Gore, Mitchell -- will likely break 80-20 to the one with the strongest case to unite Democrats and win back the White House. The issue is not ultimately about Rev. Wright or Michigan or pledged vs. superdelegates: it'll be based on a Moneyball-like analysis of numbers...and whoever can show that he/she can best beat McCain, will and should be The One.

Listen to the entire show here.

EXCERPTS FROM 7 DAYS, MARCH 22, WITH HEADLINER TOM DASCHLE
AND HUFFINGTON, GREEN & CONASON

DASCHLE: Did the Wright tapes and Obama's speech hurt his apeal to swing blue-collar Democrats? "Well, this whole matter has clearly damaged his candidacy. It's reflected in the numbers right now, but I don't think it's permanent. I really believe that at the end of the day, as people start to think about what issues really matter to them, this is going to matter, but it isn't going to be in that top tier list of things that could ultimately decide how they're going to vote. At the end of the day, next October, it's going to be Barack Obama and John McCain...two human beings, two leaders, two political candidates who will have had plenty of exposure."

DASCHLE: Is it fair or "playing the race card" for the Clinton camp to cite this controversy to superdelegates because it may mean that she's more likely to beat McCain? "I don't think it's a question of fairness as much as it is just wrong. It's fair to say it, I suppose -- you can make any argument you want. But I have to say I think it's a tough sell for the Clinton campaign to persuade superdelegates or anybody else, that she's more electable. When I talk to elected officials all over the country, what they tell me is they would much rather have Barack Obama at the top of the ballot because they believe that Hillary would be a huge drag on the ballot and would probably cause others to lose their elections."

DASCHLE: Is the Obama campaign foot-dragging to help defeat a revote in Florida and Michigan? "A revote is one possibility, but if it becomes unlikely that a revote can happen with the confidence that isn't going to be contested in a court of law, that it would include all the voters, and that it can be done mechanically, then certainly [we'd be concerned]...It's a very unfortunate characterization to call our response foot-dragging. We have said from the beginning, and I just said it now, that we definitely want to include the voters of Michigan and Florida, but we also want it to be a realistic way of resolving the issue."

CONASON: "The problem with the speech, which was indeed a brilliant exploration of racial themes, was that it was a pivot away from what he has been saying in the campaign up until now. He has been forced to confront the realities of race in America, rather than saying what people like to hear, which is that we can transcend race relations...Now he's had to turn around and face what the reality is. And I will tell you right now, I don't think white voters like hearing that."

HUFFINGTON: "Here is one political leader, flawed as he himself acknowledged, who nevertheless is in a unique position to help us transcend those tensions -- not by pretending they don't exist, but by saying, yes, they do exist, and we can work toward a more perfect union. I think it was an amazing speech, I mean an incredibly profound speech, that took many people, whether they were Hillary Clinton supporters or even Republicans, if they were willing to acknowledge it, to a higher level of political discourse.

HUFFINGTON: Should Michigan and Florida have re-votes, or not? "No, I would have them seat the delegates in the same proportions as the pledged delegates." GREEN: "So they wouldn't count?" HUFFINGTON: "They do count! Because they're there, they're in the convention, and they are counted in the total." CONASON: Arianna, you know that more people voted in these primaries than I think had voted ever before, even though they knew that their votes allegedly were not going to be accepted, or wouldn't be accepted by the DNC! So you're really telling all those people you don't care what their views were."

CONASON: "The most important thing about John McCain for voters to understand right now is that, rather than extricate us from the war in Iraq, he would expand the war. It's not just, well, we'll stay there and things will keep going sort of badly most of the time, a little bit better sometimes.... McCain is the leader of a political faction in Washington that actually wants a wider war: certainly with Iran, possibly with Syria, and who knows where else?"

Comments

[indvoter08]

Please allow me to state that i am an Independent, Not a supporter of any party or canidate and come Nov 4th i will cast my vote solely based on whom i believe will best represent our country and interest.
That said, im sick of watching the media show any clips of Rev.Wright simply put i dont want that kind of hate in my home or around my family and use my right to change the channel.
Considering that Barack Obama who just a month ago i was considering supporting feels that racism is an issue in this election it made me wonder .
What if Pastor Thomas Robb had brung Mr.Obama to christ and spent 20 years as a member of his church, teaching White family values and white life styles and leadership.
What if Pastor Robb was a Mentor and Influance in Barack Obama's Life.
Now just for a Moment imagine if Barack Obama was white, Would this still be an issue ?
I dont condone Hate in any form and this is only my opinion, but it seem Mr.Obama is being given a pass infact due to his skin color and that cant stand for anyone that wants to hold the highest office in this goverment.
If my Choice is Obama or McCain then i will cast my 1 vote for McCain , if it is Clinton or McCain well i have till Nov 4th to decide that one .

[agentoris625]

Mark Green should not be allowed to be on TV anymore, he typically gets schooled by whatever doofus republican counterpart they have him speak with and he makes incoherent and useless arguments. Plus, it takes him forever to make a point and often times there is no point to his musings. He is weak at stating his positions and needs to go find jobs where he is competent as. I'm sure there are, but articulating his views coherently is not one of them.

[JackWOrf]

I am very disappointed in Daschle. I used to have a lot of respect for him. But he was on TV lying about how Obama isn't AFRAID of the results of a revote, its just that it isn't possible. That's something that I would expect to hear from some smarmy political hack, not Daschle.

[Squirtapotamus]

Obama isn't afraid of the results of a revote. He just wants it to be fair. Problem is, there's no way to make it fair now cause there's no money to fund another election and the beauty contest that has already happened cannot be fair no matter how much the Clintonistas claim it is.

[gba]

But there is or was money to refund another election

[Leftielder]

Mark, it's over for her. Let's end this charade and win in November!

[kburlz]

I just don't get it. You're the Air America guy right? Why are you so in the tank for our pro-war choice when you are in what is supposed to be a progressive organization? By the way, have you seen polls lately? Seems like Obama averted crisis and emerged from the manure of racism smelling better than when he went in. Have you seen the hit count of his speech on youtube? Can you say, "THE GOLDEN CHILD." I'm with Bill Richardson.

[WillBFair]

For me it''s also about who can govern. Obama was given credit for a ton of bills in Illinois that were passed by others. He adopted Clinton policies on healthcare reform, fiscal restraint, and bipartisanship. For the rest, he gives far left cliches like his darling baby lambkins foreign policy, or vague rhetorical moves only posibble with help from an amoral media. That's when he's not making bigoted comments about 'old politics' and 'a new generation of leaders'.

[shano]

Did you see his speech on Iraq/foreign relations at Fayetteville last week?

[mounthoodliberal]

Mark, your "electoral college" analysis is seriously flawed. I went to the site you linked, which is a blatantly Hillary Clinton shill site. As with all the desperation that the Clinton backers have, they play around with the numbers using absolutely best case, pie-in-the-sky scenarios, to make the point that, as your shill site says, "Hillary kicks Barack's ass." Wake up and smell the coffee before the party goes down the tubes...

[AlleyCat]

The Demcratic Party will be Shocked if they nominate Obama at the flood of old Dem's like myself that will abandon the Party.
I have been phone banking for the Dem's for 30 Years and am a faithful voter.
But I am tired of being pushed around by all of the bleeding heart minorities, that won't move against illegal immigration, and continue to provide free medical and and education to those here illegally.
I will be swithcing parties, I don't want a phoney uniter I want a Fighter.
Hope in one hand, and, well You Know the Rest
Hillary, Don't Stop Fighting!

[Goldie9]

Oh sure-- switch parties... go ahead and cut off your own nose while you're at it, because you'll be voting for 4 more years of Bush! With Dems like you, who needs enemies???

[BubbaC33]

A qucik look at Obama's ideas on issues makes it easy to see a vote for Obama is pretty much a vote for a Republican.

[JackWOrf]

I might do likewise. As a Florida Democrat, this disenfranchisement by the DNC has me angrier than I have been at any time since the 2000 election with Bush ignoring 15,000 butterfly ballot votes for Gore (which would have made Gore President). I can not really believe that the DNC is doing this. Obama continues to resist a re-vote, which makes me dislike him more and more.

[JackWOrf]

As a Florida Democrat, I think that seating the Florida delegation according to the pledged delegates is totally unacceptable. We the people of Florida had a free and fair election, and Obama LOST by 17 points, or 300,000 votes.

There is no reason whatsover why the Florida delegation should not be seated AS ELECTED in a free and fair election, under the rules and bylaws of the Sovereing State of Florida, and in accordance with the Constitution of the Sovereign State of Florida, and its 17 million free American citizens.

The moral authority of the DNC, on the other hand, is HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. The DNC is not an elected body, it is not a regulatory body, and it has no duly authorized powers whatsover.

Indeed, its authority over the millions of Democratic voters is HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. WE THE PEOPLE have not elected the leaders of the DNC as our representatives. WE THE PEOPLE have NOT authorized the DNC to have any regulatory power over elections WHATSOVER.

Where in the LAW is it specified that the DNC has the right to DISENFRANCHISE entire states for not following their dubious recommendations? This is a violation of the RIGHTS of Democratic voters. The DNC is SUBSERVIENT to the WILL of millions of Democratic voters.

The DNC is essentially a collection of losers. Whenever a Democrat runs for President and loses, they put him on the board of the DNC. Is it any wonder that Democrats never win elections anymore? There is only ONE Democrat who has WON a presidential election in the past 32 years. His name is Bill Clinton. There is only ONE Democrat who has been re-elected president in the past 64 years. His name is Bill Clinton.

[Goldie9]

JackW-- primaries and caucuses are held by the political parties, not by the states!

Why not vent your anger against your own state Dem representatives who offered no objections to the FLA Repugs' hare-brained idea to move your primary ahead of Feb. 5th? Why did your Dems not even object or refuse to go along with the Repugs' plan?

[focher]

There are only three options that will seat a delegation from Florida (and Michigan). The first option is to seat them as is. The argument against this - to be accepted or rejected hopefully based on each person's sense of right or wrong and not on whether it gets "their candidate" chosen - is that both candidates agreed not to accept the delegates from Florida because the primary was moved up. The second option is to split the delegates evenly among Clinton and Obama to effectively neutralize them in the first round vote (in the event of a second round vote, it wouldn't necessarily matter). The final option is to have a re-vote, a scenario almost impossible to see happening because of legal obstacles and cost.

[kburlz]

Is it fair when you tell the other team that it was just an exhibition? The only people who voted in Florida and Michigan were those with no life.

[gba]

Hehehe

[DavidK08]

I think that you are missing the point.

The rules. Obama followed them. HRC is trying to change them, with your help. Anything other than delegates is a non-issue. When ever you hear someone say that the race should be decided by any other mean than the delegate count is an idiot or desperate.

As for FL and MI, the time for that debate is long gone. That was a 2007 debate. How much did any of you care about that debate in 2007? Unless you are desperate or a desperate follower of a desperate candidate You probably cared very little.

When the issue of helping or hurting the revote comes up, it depends on who you ask. Because for the HRC camp, you are going to get an obstructionist view of Obama for anything less than her own level of support.

When you ask a level headed American, you get a positive force driving a re-vote, while noting that there are serious concerns involved. Obama's team has a right to make sure that teh vote doesn't count as it stands...w­ho doesn't agree with that? And that if a re-vote did happen that it would have to be fair. You can't be fair when people voted in the GOP primary instead of the Dem primary because of the rules that were in place that day. HRC doesn't care about fair. HRC will also play a very dirty card if there were a re-vote... She would say that she is the only reason that your vote counts. Total bull shit!

In the end, HRC doesn't care about the voice of the two states. She is asking the supers to over turn what ever the voters say anyway.

HRC has no class!

[BubbaC33]

Ms. Clinton did not run ads in Florida during the primary there, but Obama did, a clear violation of the agreement signed by Obama and Ms. Clinton.

[Squirtapotamus]

National ads run NATIONALLY. Of course Florida will see ads run on MSNBC.

[shp]

What rules are you talking about? You mean the US Constitution (with amendments) that guarantees US citizens the right to vote? Which any reasonable person would understand meaning the vote should count? All I see on this site is people complaining about how their civil rights have ben eroded under Bush,and here the Democratic Party makes a concious decision that goes against the most important right a US citizen has, the right to vote. Talk about swiftboating, the Democratic Party will not have a chance in November, no-matter who they nominate, based on this flagrant hubris idiot behavior..­....

[Squirtapotamus]

No one is denying anyone the right to vote in the General election, which is the one controlled by the Constitution.

[colleen2]

"it's undeniable that they were foot-dragging to frustrate possible re-votes that could help Hillary Clinton erode his delegate lead if not reverse his popular vote margin."

Did ya''ll have a conference call on Sunday to agree on talking points? Laying the blame for this debacle on the winner of the nomination is just petty and deeply dishonest. He's supposed to help the Clintonistas change the rules, rules they all agreed on and voted on, in midstream? All you're doing is trying to foster divisiveness and resentment.

[JackWOrf]

I'm a Florida Democrat and I voted for Hillary. Why should my vote by ignored? Weren't all you Obamaites crying in your beer about everybody's vote should be counted, and it shouldn't go to the Superdelegates? Face facts: Obama is a LOSER. He LOST in Florida 50-33. He LOST in Michigan. He deliberately left his name off the ballot so that he would have an excuse. The slimy CHEAT has LOST ALL of the big states. If he is nominated, he will be LOSE, and we will have another 4 years of Republicans. Why is he afraid of a re-vote? Because he would LOSE again, as he LOST in January, the slimy little CHEAT!!!

[waitomo]

Mark Green is so irrelevant, he makes Tommy Thompson's run for president seem significant . Hillary should listen to him, because, like her, he knows something about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. In fact, he's a grand master. These bleatings from ancient Democratic party apparatchiks like Mark Green, who obviously sees a chance at getting a job in a Clinton administration slipping away, are getting tiresome. Mark Green is a loser. And that is to be taken literally. He's run out of offices to run for in New York when he should have been Mayor. But he let his arrogance get in the way. Sound familiar?

[JackWOrf]

Look at the polls, dimwit. While they are close in the popular vote, Hillary CLOBBERS McCain in electoral college votes, and Obama LOSES to McCain in electoral college votes. And the electoral college is all that counts. GUTLESS OBAMA refused to do revotes in FL and MI because he knows that he would LOSE. He doesn't care that he will lose the election for the Democrats. He is a stupid arrogant FOOL who only cares about his own ego.

[oracle99]

If you read his book ...some of his relatives in Kenya called him Barry, as his father was called. His white grandmother called him Bar. Please America read this book "Dreams from my Father" by Barack Obama and you will see how he grew up in a loving "white" home, and thus why he was so hurt when his white grandmother was afraid of a black man ....and why . It also tells how ostracized his mother was growing up in a racist Texas town, when she brought home a black friend from grade school. Read and understand.

[patriotparty1]

Why dont YOU read all of the people he has spent time with. Who he considers his "mentors".

[BubbaC33]

His mentor in the US Senate has been Joe Lieberman.

[nazgul]

Yeah, whatever.

Obama is winning and will win the nomination.

Hillary AND Bill Clinton's legacy from this campaign will be a much diminished approval rating.

The Democratic Party as a whole will have suffered a lot of damage from this contest, because the Clinton's felt so entitled that they were willing to slash and burn the progressive activitists, educated Democrats, new generation Democrats and AA community in order to pry the nomination from Obama's hands.

There's no going Back to the Future for the Democratic Presidency, only for more Clinton damage to the Party (and the nation).

[JackWOrf]

A typical arrogant post from the ObaMorons. Since when are you imbeciles more "educated" than Hillary's people? Anybody with a brain would see thru that 2-bit transparent PHONY Obama. HA! Educated? And you would support a scumbag like HIM?

[BDunne]

Even if his speech was not “politically” correct -- it appealed to the people. Read the polls.

[JackWOrf]

The only people who sat thru Obama's long-winded spiel are his adoring supporters. Oh gee, lets all sit there for 45 minutes and ADORE Obama! Isn't he wonderful? Isn't he just SO witty? Yecccchhhhh. I'm sick of watching him makeing the same moves and the same jokes and the same cliches. I READ his speech, and it wasn't very good. The spoken version, I'm sure, was wonderful, because he is a a showman. But there was no substance.