7 Days: As Palin Fades, Will Bin Laden Again Try to Pick Our President? w/ Ferraro, Huffington, Vanden Heuvel, and Green

The VP debate is over and the reviews are in -- Biden exceeded high expectations, and Palin exceed low ones...she stayed on message, though not on topic. And now it's likely that, as so many VP nominees before her, Palin will disappear into small markets to work her conservative base far from the national media "filter."

So, short of some Obama gaffe -- and the man doesn't appear to make major make gaffes -- we're down to only three significant variables over these final four weeks:

First, the economy is tanking so obviously that it seems likely to dominate the election. Per most presidential campaigns, it'll come down to pocketbook issues -- and, again, McCain hasn't passed the economist-in-chief test.

Second, the McCain camp keeps threatening to try to Willie Hortonize Obama with ex-weatherman Bill Ayres. This guilt-by-association technique has worked before, but the economy is too big and the hour seems too late for such a despicable, lame linkage. What next Steve Schmidt -- an ad connecting O.J. and B.O.?

Third is an "October Surprise" that forces the race to be decided on international not economic grounds.

Enter bin Laden? I recall how in March of 2004 I cornered Wes Clark at an event and asked why wouldn't bin Laden do something provocative to help Bush win reelection since each protagonist helped the other -- in a Bush-Obama comparison, Bush was advantaged in America and bin Laden could better recruit al-Qaeda. Being a discrete military grown-up, Clark wouldn't engage me -- so I launched a "Name the October Surprise Contest" on Air America Radio. We got thousands of listeners to suggest what might happen...and then something did. John Kerry blames his loss in part in part on bin Laden's Friday tape before the Tuesday election for focusing attention on the terrorist threat just as Kerry was starting to climb.

Let's stipulate that al-Qaeda is evil, but not stupid. We've watched them attack Great Britain right after Gordon Brown became PM and attack Spain just before their national elections. Since militaristic conservative presidents are their recruiting tools, there's a very real chance that bin Laden or a local remnant will do something to derail Obama and help the warrior candidate.

While no one can exactly predict or stop him, there is something the Huffington Post, The Nation and Air America -- as well as all other progressive voices and outlets -- can together do. Repeatedly raise now the prospect of a terrorist intervention into our election because Republicans are more likely to fall into al-Qaeda's trap of overreacting, witness Bush. If we say it again and again, either it won't happen... or it will and voters can say, not this time!

And as Katrina and Arianna explain below, Obama himself can give a foreign policy address where he soberly lays out how terrorists in the past like to test a new president or alter an election -- and how both candidates should not allow anti-Americans to hijack our American election.

Let's not surrender to political correctness and fail to anticipate this possibility because of how awful i t would be. Fool us once, shame on you...

Comments

[DaBluAce]

we need to expect the unexpected and be prepared.

[StickyStickyMcCain]

Terrorist are stupid, reactionary and invoke fear. Hmmm...An attack would only reassert authority on how strategically lame the Republicans view of the world has been. Also, an attack that by its consequence would benefit McCain - if indeed, let us say he wins voters because of - would highlight how predictable and sloppy a majority of the American public and its leaders are. Not good. Terrorist might see another Republican administration - since their moves are all reactionary - predictable, but I do think they would fear a Democratic Obama administration. Let us hope that the American public is smart and truly ready to defeat all reactionary fear mongering.

[FogBelter]

I'd argue that if Al-Qaeda gets an attack off between now and the election, after being silent for so long, it only means that someone in the United States allowed the attack to happen to effect the election.

Such an event would only take place with the complicity of Right Wing Americans.

[UrbanInterloper]

Mr. Green, sorry if this is too blunt, but you think like a Republican--in other words, wrongly. Another bin Laden video or something like it right before the election would only remind voters of the grotesque Republican failure on national security matters over the past two terms, and how McCain would continue Bush's blood-soaked legacy. Americans know better. They will not reward Republican failure by electing another Republican. While the focus may now be on the economy, Obama's rise can be directly traced to his superior approach to national security and foreign policy. That's a fact. Note Obama's rise in the polls after the first debate, which was largely about national security.

[sus1]

Oh yeah... I think they tried and tried to hold off the economic issues, but couldn't anymore. Else, how do you explain the months and months of Bush & McCain constantly saying the economy is "fundamentally strong". And, I would not at all be suprised if Bin Laden "rears his head" in the following weeks. Taped threat maybe?

[Lotus19]

I don't think the Aryes angle will work as well as Willie Horton and Dukakis. For one thing, Obama's campaign is much more organized and in a constant state of readiness and will be able to quickly counter that kind of attack. Secondly, if that's all they have it's pathetic, the association, however loose, is very old. McCain will be beaten back to a retreat in no time.

I like your suggestion that the media stay attuned to a Bin Laden interference. There again, I think Obama will come out on top. The foreign policy advantage has been given to McCain but he has demostrated how erratic his responses can be. During Katrina before that he was totally disengaged.

During this economic crisis, McCain did not exhibit any real leadership, and that has nothing to do with not understanding the economy. I believe that if something should go down in October, Obama will once again demonstrate that he is the best qualified to lead us in more ways than one. Many people don't like that he voted for the bill, and i'm not totally convinced that it was the right decision, but he sought advice from the most highly respected people, and sought to calm everyone's fears and also stated that he understood that it was not the ideal solution..

[feo]

Well, as every TV watcher knows, bin Laden has been VP for at least the last four years.