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By Mark Green
Shrum and Christie discuss whether the impressive John Kasich got overshadowed the week of his announcement and if the GOP has "crazies" in the base (McCain's word) or simply has "a crazy base." Also: Senate Republicans go off on Kerry over Iran -- was he "fleeced" or do they believe in "unicorns?"
*Iran-Nukes goes to Congress. Ron Christie strongly opposes the Obama-Kerry Iranian deal, for several reasons: It should have been a formal treaty, which would mean that it'd be voted down for want of a constitutionally required two-thirds supermajority; Iran still has the capacity to make a bomb; and it will have tens of billions more for terrorism once the sanctions are lifted.
Bob Shrum as aggressively rebuts, saying: the Iran accord is well within the precedent of other bi-partisan international executive agreements -- like JFK-Khruschev's nuclear test ban and Reagan-Gorby's on nuclear reductions - except that zero Republicans now are going along with a good deal that makes it harder for at least a decade for Iran to develop a bomb.
Bob's not done, discounting Ron's other arguments as "dross and nitpicking" since: the break-out time has gone from two months to at worst a year in a decade given the huge reductions in centrifuges and enriched uranium; and of course, Iraq will have billions more available once sanctions are lifted because they were imposed to be lifted once they slowed their nuclear ambitions. "And what's the alternative? You have none."
Christie says there is one -- continue and strengthen the sanctions until Iran cries uncle. Shrum interrupts to assert that everyone knows that the other five participating nations wouldn't go along with continued sanctions after a deal they agreed to, which Christie in turn asserts is "speculative"... as they go on to some cross talk about whose speculation is more probable.
What about Marco Rubio's point that "legally and morally" the next president need not and should not continue the agreement on January 20, 2017? Bob smashes that statement since of course new presidents almost always continue international agreements lest the word of the U.S. count for nothing. Ron thinks both Rubio and Shrum have a point. And he acknowledges that the way most Republican senators announced their opposition before reading the agreement validates Sen. Angus King's (Indep, MA) comment that if they were a jury pool, "they'd be disqualified" for prejudice.
One consensus: It's almost inconceivable that the swing vote of Chuck Schumer would end up aligning with his conservative Jewish base over his Democratic President and Democratic Senate caucus base, given his plan to be chosen their leader in the next Congress. (One consolation speaking of Jews, if I may as a fellow congregant: Schumer would be the first Jewish politician to ever be either President, Speaker or Majority Leader (if Ds win back majority) in 227 years.)
Host: As for polls, they show majorities in favor though majorities also doubting Iran will comply, which combined mean that people think it's worth the risk; also, Jewish Americans support it by some 54 percent to 35 percent, belying any casual assumption that they would favor the Israeli PM over the American POTUS.
As for history -- put yourself in Iran's shoes. Why would they cheat and get a bomb at the expense of probably again being economically isolated and devastated and when even one bomb doesn't match up well with Israel's 200? No deal means the probability of Iran racing to nuclear-ize forcing the U.S. to sit by or attack. The current agreement of the U.S., five other world powers and UN at worst delays them for years with the prospect of a nuclear-free Iran and Middle East (except for Israel) in the future. As a friend of mine once said, "no one is smart enough to be a pessimist."
*Kasich-Trump. There's a consensus that Ron's friend John Kasich, who he served as a legislative director for eight years, is a different kind of Republican from a very swing state whose whose relative moderation would position him as a strong general election candidate... but a) his announcement got stepped on by The Trumpeter and b) there's no way to yet know if he has a Huntsman Problem -- looks good on paper and in person but the GOP base is too Far-Right to accept him.
Two questions: Kasich is on the cusp of getting into the first GOP debate Aug. 6 -- will he? And if so, will be try for a Bentsen-Quayle moment (now that Rick Perry has played the Joseph Welch card) -- that is, puncture his pompous balloon? Which won't be so easy because, while Trump is surely a lying blowhard, he's also a quick-witted New Yorker whose parry could boomerang on any critic.
Breaking News: The Host asks Christie if, on the chance Trump spends a billion and actually becomes the GOP nominee, would he vote for him over, say, a Hillary. "I'd never vote for Trump," says Ron authoritatively, unlike leading conservative blogger and Red-State head Erick W. Erickson. A new litmus test?
Second question: Won't Kasich have to be on all VP lists, if he's not the nominee, because of his vitae and home state? Hard to discount that (although Ron doesn't comment given his closeness to the Guv) while Bob discounts a Hillary then choosing Sherrod Brown, also popular in Ohio, as too obviously a calculated political move. (JFK-LBJ wasn't? Worked pretty well.)
Quick Takes: Three Private Companies with Public Impact. Consensus everywhere! First, that de Blasio misplayed Uber because most consumers and voters like this new technology. Second, Gawker was wrong to have run an item outing and shaming the brother of a public figure and it wasn't wrong for management to take it down. Third, Fox is probably correct to use some polling criteria to limit its debate to a top 10. Will anyone watch the other six or seven at the "kids table" debate? Both-siders will!
Mark Green is the creator and host of Both Sides Now.
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