Why 2008 will be a Perfect Storm for Republicans

In hindsight, we can see why incumbent parties have been blamed and creamed in federal elections, like Republicans in 1974 after Watergate and Democrats in 1994 after the failure of health care. Looking ahead, with 13 months to go, a perfect storm is gathering force that will likely decimate Republican strength in federal and state races.

There is no one earthquake producing a political tsunami but rather four separate seismic events that together--short of another terrorist attack or a new war against Iran--will alter the electoral terrain of America.

*Iraq: Consider the numbers: when asked who can best end the Iraq war, only 5 percent of Americans in a recent poll said President Bush; consistent majorities of 70 percent want the war to end soon and 60 percent believe Bush misled us into this conflict. Claims of progress may momentarily quell public anger over this monumental blunder--say, General Petraeus's putting a happy face on the war. But such optimism is now as convincing as General Westmoreland's expecting "light at the end of the tunnel" in Vietnam or Baghdad Bob's denying American troops were anywhere near the Baghdad airport while those troops were seizing it.

What exactly can GOP candidates say next fall in the face of no WMD, no link between Saddam and 9/11, no ties between Saddam and al Qaeda, no flowers for "liberators," 5 million refugees both out of and within Iraq, Administration approval of torture, over 30,000 American dead and wounded as well as over 100,000 Iraqis killed ?not to mention an increase in terrorism world-wide? "Give us more time" for a war that's lasted longer than World War II?

None of this worked in 2006 and will be even less pervasive in 2008. As Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) recently acknowledged after a Senate vote on the war, the public knows this is Bush's and the Republican's war and will reward or punish candidates accordingly.

*Economy. Most economic forecasters are predicting a one in two chance of a recession due to the foreclosure crisis leading to a credit crisis. Nor can Republican candidates convincingly cite Bush's eight-year record if '08 goes flat. Average monthly job creation and economic growth under Clinton was 237,000 and 3.6 percent; under Bush, it's 53,000 and 2.6 percent. Even if there's no recession but merely a slowdown, incumbent parties historically still lose seats and the White House if economic growth falls below 3 percent in the election year, as now seems inevitable.

At the same time, this Administration's record on spending and deficits--turning a projected $5.6 trillion surplus into $3 trillion in deficits--is dividing its own business base, according to Wall Street Journal last week. Now when asked which party would better maintain prosperity, it's Democrats by 54-34 percent according to Gallup.

And for the first time in several generations, the economic debate may include not only growth but also distribution. Static median income over the Bush years combined with winner-take-all increases in wealth by the top 1 percent have not gone unnoticed. A Pew Poll in 1988 found that by 71 to 25 percent, Americans thought themselves "haves" rather than "have nots"; by 2001, it was 48 to 48 percent. Any such data or arguments provoke Republicans to shout, "class warfare." But this is blaming the mirror for the image. Can conservatives explain how ExxonMobil's Lee Raymond earned more per hour in 2005 than his average employee earned per year?

*Intolerance. The GOP claiming to the ?party of Lincoln? is a pretense long beyond its expiration date. During the Cold War, Republicans could successfully run against Reds and Blacks. Yet with the decline of Communism and the Southern Strategy, GOP strategists have instead turned to targeting terrorists, immigrants and gays. Hence all those terror alerts and anti-gay referenda in 2004, and strident anti-immigrant rhetoric in 2007. But can the GOP rely simply on white men to win, blowing off racial and other minorities in a country increasingly minority? Bush's small gain in the black vote from 8% in 2000 to 11% in 2004, including a pivotal 16% in Ohio, helped cement his narrow victory.

The recent refusal of leading Republican presidential candidates to attend key black, Latino and gay debates prodded former vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp to complain, "We sound like we don't want immigration; we sound like we don't want black people to vote for us. What are we going to do--meet in a country club in the suburbs one day?" It won't suffice any longer for 2008 convention organizers to put every minority delegate on the stage, hoping pictures will substitute for policy.

*Children. President Bush made good on his threat to veto the expansion of the SCHIP program to extend health insurance to another 4 million children, notwithstanding the bi-partisan support of 43 governors and an 84 percent majority in a CBS-New York Times poll. He complains that such a move would federalize, even socialize, health care. So will he now end Medicare and Medicaid?

Yes, it would cost another $35 billion annually, but that would be entirely covered by a proposed increase in the tobacco tax. It's revealing that an administration which didn't veto any spending bills for six years and didn't sweat $50 billion in oil subsidies and $10 billion a month for Iraq now draws the line against providing health care to children at no-cost to the federal budget. It approaches political suicide for the Bush Administration and four top GOP presidential candidates to elevate the rhetoric of free-market fundamentalism over the reality of millions of children lacking health insurance.

Pro-war and anti-growth, anti-minorities, anti-children. Not a good way to run for election.

Beyond these four problems, a variety of other realities combine to dig Republicans into an even deeper hole. Recent polls show Democrats are more trusted on every domestic and foreign policy issue: education, health care, environment, economic growth, fiscal discipline, even terrorism. The number of Americans who self-identify as Republican is at a seven year low. While Americans believing the country is ?on the wrong tack? was 50 percent in 2002 and 2004, it's now 67 percent. National Democratic committees and presidential candidates are outraising their Republican counterparts better than 2 to 1. And then there's the fact that Republicans are defending 22 Senate seats in 2008 compared to 12 for the Democrats. Nine Republican Senate seats are now considered vulnerable (Alaska, Colorado, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and Virginia).

Adding it all up: look for Democrats to end up with a near filibuster-proof 58 Senate seats (up from 51) and 260 House seats (up from 213 in 2005 and 233 in 2007). The 2006 and 2008 elections would then be the equivalent of a rolling realignment, comparable to the 51, 49 and 53 House seats that switched hands in 1958, 1974 and 1994 respectively. For when there's a tidal wave of sentiment, it doesn't tip some close contests but nearly all close contests. What John Kenneth Galbraith said of Black Monday 1933 is true for the GOP today: "The end had come, but it was not yet in sight."


A condensed version of this post appears today in the New York Daily News here.

Comments

[JaseAllen]

Three things:

1. The term "perfect storm" was officially over used years ago.

2. As with the mid-term elections, the Democrats won't win so much as the Republicans will loose due to corruption and more gay sex scandals. Let's face it, the Democrats haven't done much with their Congressional majority other than constantly knuckle under. That doesn't inspire /me/ to vote for them.

3. I seriously doubt the Democrats will take the Presidency. The Republicans may be inept and corrupt, but at least they run an effective election campaign. The current Democrat front runners will likely loose. HRC is about as genuine as a $6 bill and Obama went from being inspiring to seeming phony. They both seem to have neutered themselves to use the same failed campaign strategy as Gore and Kerry.

[phreeman]

It's way to early to start counting chickens, especially with the Dem's unmatched ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That is exactly what they are doing by failing to force a filibuster and/or veto on ending the Iraq war.

Plus, let's face it, there are plenty of Americans who do not want "tolerance" of what they think (wrongly in my opinion)is an abhorrent lifestyle choice. And, any bump up from the SCHIP veto will be offset by the specter of new taxes to pay for universal medical care. The economy--maybe that will tip the balance toward the Dems. Of course, the moderate center is not quite so stupid as either party thinks it is. The question will not be simply whether the economy has gone bad, it will be which party offers the best hope for a recovery.

[leatherneck]

Maybe it is a good thing they will be labeled with this era of economic ruin, harship on america, since maybe that is what it will take too wake up the few who voted for them who are not die hard republicans [29%], democrats are not the majority, nor are the republicans, 71% fall into either independant or democrat, so the all important independant is who needs too pay attention too what the republicans have done, and remember a democrat brought the USA out of great depression not the republicans..

[leatherneck]

I read today where some economists are predicting a 1929 style depression crash in Wall Street, anyone see Deja Vu, republicans were in power and rightly or wrongly got blamed for this crash..., the party of greed, profit above all else, war profiteers [blackwater mercenaries earning billons in Iraq], Haliburton [ripping off american tax payers with their buddies in white houses help], spending billions too keep their war profiteers happy but cannot pay for american kids health insurance? Well if one things is true of republicans it is when they screw things up it they do it in a big way, 1929 stock crash, watergate, and now we will one day have many names on this era, Iraq-gate, era of the war profiteers crashing and bankrupting the USA for their profits with no concern for the consequences.

[leatherneck]

republicans are like a man drowning, latching onto anyone near by too try and save themselves, they brag how the democrats have not ended the Iraq war, blaming the newly elected democrats/Pelosi, but in reality they blocked the ability by giving their messiah Bush the ability too veto the majority votes cast, they blame democrats for Iraq war due too they bought Bush/Cheney lies on WMD, ignoring this one little fact their messiah and his #1 disciple Cheney lied too congress, senate, and even after the WMD was not found, lied again too the american people telling them it was not about WMD, but liberating the Iraqi's, I still find it ironic, these WMD's we gave Iraq during their Iran/Iraq war, which had ironically been destroyed leaving Iraq with no way too prove they had been destroyed as they claimed, still is right wings big rhetoric lie being sold even today..

[leatherneck]

Republicans in 2004, were cheering, Rove was proclaiming his party was ushering in 40 years of their dominance in american politics, even though the polls showed differently, we all know they do not care about polls, ignore them like they do the "people", they depended on trickery, fraud, supressing the non-white/poor voters, but how funny karma is, they still lost the congress & senate, they today still have their pundit/pro­pagandists in fox network, bragging they will win 2008 elections, but like 2004, they cannot see the writing on the wall for the blind devotion too a failed agenda, but 71% of america is not buying that die hard 29% republican agenda anymore....

[gaby]

very true, but for me i will never take the constitution or my freedom for granted again, i used to think we had this all takewn care of, so i stopped paying attention, i owe this coutry my attention if nothing else, i will stay vigilant, i will not be sient,cjw

[mpgarr]

This may all be very true--the only problem with it---can the Democrats still win?? They seem to be able to "snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" so well---at true gift!!!

[hsk01945]

Excellent analysis.. but Bush/Cheney are playing with a stacked deck. You alluded to it: "There is no one earthquake producing a political tsunami but rather four separate seismic events that together--SHORT OF ANOTHER TERRORIST ATTACK OR A NEW WAR AGAINST IRAN --will alter the electoral terrain of America."

Bush/Cheney will surely stage another "false flag" terror event as they did on 9/11. You can bet on it. Next time we won't discover the plot to ship nukes through Barksdale AFB to the Middle East until it's too late. They will suspend elections, and declare martial law - unless - Congress stops them NOW.

[darker]

It's time for the FAT, UGLY, GREEDY REPUBLICAN ELEPHANTS to take their BAD ACT and get out of town!

They won't stand up for kids' health care & insurance, a healthy economy, a realistic energe policy, etc.

REPUBLICANS ARE WORTHLESS TO THE AVERAGE AMERICAN!

Too many stand up for GREEDY RICH CORPORATE WELFARE QUEEN CORPORATIONS getting richer on their Bush-Cheney "designer war" the IRAQ INVASION. Designed to enrich corrupt contractors and capture oil fields for Big Oil.
Over dead and maimed USTroops and Iraqis.

NO THANKS, YOU JERKS!!

[indigowatcher]

That;s why I went to Canada for an all-electric car:
http://www.zenncars.com/
The base price was only $12,000, and I love this little car. Stick it to Big Oil, save your pennies and buy a Zenn! I've already put over 1800 miles on it in only about 4 months, so we definitely use it quite often. If you decide to buy a Zenn, be sure to ask about the Zenn Ambassador's Program that gives you a $3000 rebate in exchange for handing out flyers and talking about your Zenn to others.

[DaisyZimmerly]

I love reading the delusional posts of the Repukes. Your asses are history in 08. Just keep kidding yourselves that anyone gives a damn what you think about anything. Get the EMT's ready because when the election results are announced (Hillary) Repukes are going to be having strokes and heart attacks by the thousands. Hope your thieving HMO's that you love and defend pay your hospital bills. Don't forget to get approval from your policy issuer before calling the ambulance. So EMT's, get those defibrillators ready. Your going to have a busy evening. It's show time.

[therealredstateblues]

No they won't, the NeoCONs are in the closet pulling for a Hillary win

[paixa3]

I agree, if Daisy thinks the rethug/neo cons are finished, she is completely wrong.

[Qbear]

Congressional Republicans = EXTINCT

Congressional Democrats = on the endangered species list

[Mack20]

Children. This one has become a ridiculous joke from your side. In the 90’s you libs accused Newt and the Republicans of starving children and throwing seniors out on the street. Now your lies have evolved into this: Republicans want poor kids to be sick and could care less about them. Do you realize how absurd that sounds? Thankfully, most Americans are logical and levelheaded and wont buy into the worn out crap you liberals love to spread. Here is the pitiful truth they don’t want you to know. For years the Dems have purposely lied and referred to a reduction in growth as a CUT. Here is an example. Pay attention now. Take your typical liberal give-away program. The program receives an annual increase of say 7% for whatever reason. A proposal to reduce the growth to say 4% is always referred to a CUT by lying Democrats. Yet you’re the bunch that pretends to be fiscally responsible. What a laugh! Its just another effort to expand government and cultivate more dependant voters. Your greedy politicians have their eyes trained on a new set of potential dependant voters. Can anyone say illegal immigrants? Oh, but according to you, that makes me a racist. Just another worn out lie. Its easy to distract from the real issue when someone screams RACISM!!!

Now get ready because this one is really going to hurt. I firmly believe most liberals, or progressives as you prefer, have a character flaw. Many, but not all, tend to be phony, shallow, dishonest, calculating, selfish, self-centered and sometimes just downright rude. It is usually the loud liberal that accuses his opponent of every evil deed known to man. Truth is the liberal PROJECTOR typically impugns his nemesis of actions, thoughts and deeds he/she engages in. You know how it goes. The liar wont believe anyone. The thief thinks everyone is stealing from him. And the wife cheater is insanely jealous of his spouse.

[CountdownToImpeachment]

muck20,
you are a typical LYING riech wing NUTCASE. It's YOUR type of LIES that America is (finally) seeing through. The way you accuse others (liberals) of what you yourself are most guilty of isn't fooling anyone anymore.

As far as the illegals, the flood of illegals was DILIBERATELY created by the right wing proto-fascist rethug-lie-scams to fuel corporate greed and the FACT that our borders weren't IMMEDIANTLY SEALED is further PROOF that the war on a TACTIC (war on terror) is total BULLS**T! AS IF THE REAL FACTS ABOUT 9/11/01 WEREN'T ENOUGH TO DO THAT ALREADY.
HERE, LET ME FIX SOME OF YOUR TYPOS (= YOUR BULLS**T)
I firmly believe most FASCISTS, or as you prefer rethug-lie-scams (repubs), have a character flaw. Many, almost all, tend to be phony, shallow, dishonest, calculating, selfish, self-centered and sometimes just downright rude. It is usually the loud right wing nutcase that accuses his opponent of every evil deed known to man that they themself are usually most guilty of.


BTW: congressman craig said to meet him in the bathroom and congressman foley said he'd watch your kids for ya while y'all were in there.

[mari2JJ]

To all Republicans: Whistling in the dark will not work this election cycle. Your behavior these last few years leaves so much to be desired that any amount of your churchy mumbo-jumbo or double speak will impress the thinking electorate again nor will it keep you from losing many seats this time around. Then there is your obvious misinformation about Iraq. All of these things make it all too clear we cannot trust you.

[klosskid]

It sounds as if someone has been reading a little too much of Ann Coulter... and believing her.

[Veronica]

***"Many, but not all, tend to be phony, shallow, dishonest, calculating, selfish, self-centered and sometimes just downright rude. It is usually the loud liberal that accuses his opponent of every evil deed known to man. Truth is the liberal PROJECTOR typically impugns his nemesis of actions, thoughts and deeds he/she engages in. You know how it goes."***

The irony in your statement is positively glaring. Right after you accuse people whose only real crime is having views with which you do not agree of having every negative trait you can think of, you accuse said liberals of "PROJECTING."

Impugns the nemesis of his actions. Hmmm. Interesting. You mean kind of like the entire point of your petty little post is to "impugn" others? Do you listen to yourself? You are positively drowning in non-deserved self-satisfaction.

Classic!

[Mack20]

Here is the perfect storm in reverse, Mr. Green:

Iraq. The Democrats persistent and unrelenting efforts to undermine our troops will backfire. Americans hate a loser and especially a traitorous bunch trying to sabotage the war. This latest effort with Pelosi and her attempt to anger Turkey and cause a war with the Kurds will surely bite her and all of you. How many people will die for her political selfishness?

Economy. In case you missed it our economy is pretty good. In my industry, businesses are buying high dollar capital items right and left. Unemployment is low and interest rates are still decent. One micro sector of our economy is suffering though. Most of the liberal news and media organizations are sucking wind. So naturally, those companies like the NY Times, CNN, CBS, etc, are losing money and don’t understand why. The typical liberal thought process reasons if our business stinks, everyone elses must too. The truth is there are too many liberal left leaning organizations to support. Most of the conservatives watch Fox while you progressives are spread across several networks. If we boil it all down, the MSM offers a product most Americans reject.

Intolerance. You libs are the most intolerant group there is. Rather than debate the issues, you continue to promulgate lies and constantly try to race bait, divide and falsely accuse your opponents of every dastardly deed known to man. The sad truth is your party has created and fostered a dependant society solely for political purposes. Re-election is more important than allowing and providing individuals the opportunity to succeed. If an individual, with hard work and self-determination, becomes a success, he or she no longer needs your handouts. Thankfully, the African American community is slowly realizing this. It is a very slow process, though, because your media pals ignore the real AA leaders like Thomas, Rice, Steele, Cosby and others. You liberals want to keep these outstanding Americans in the back of the bus so they cant influence the young, impressionable leaders of tomorrow.

Part two is coming up.

[acanthus]

Mack, if those people were the real "AA" leaders, most blacks would be voting Republican. Mr. Green mentioned that Bush got 16% of the black vote in Ohio. That only happened because of the sleazy, evil voter suppression tactics the Republicans used against black voters in that state. And as far a liberals "keeping them in the back of the bus", that's BS, and you know it. Those people have much more access, and are looked upon much more kindly by the media, than almost all liberal black activists, politicians, and commentators. They are not the real AA leaders for one reason, and one reason only. The overwhelming majority of black people in this country don't accept them. Let me say that again- the overwhelming majority of black people in this country don't...do not...accept them. This has nothing to do with white liberals. Black people in this country see these black Republicans, listen to them, then reject them, over and over again. I know that. You know that. Wishing doesn't make it so, Mack.

[southwerk]

I very much agree that the Republicans are headed for a major disaster in 2008. However, the Democratic party has hardly demonstrated coherence or capability in managing Congress. If the only purpose is to elect non-Republicans, the success will be great, but if we desire to elect someone who can do things beside continue the status quo we have to more than just win.