Why 2008 will be a Perfect Storm for Republicans

In hindsight, we can see why incumbent parties have been blamed and creamed in federal elections, like Republicans in 1974 after Watergate and Democrats in 1994 after the failure of health care. Looking ahead, with 13 months to go, a perfect storm is gathering force that will likely decimate Republican strength in federal and state races.

There is no one earthquake producing a political tsunami but rather four separate seismic events that together--short of another terrorist attack or a new war against Iran--will alter the electoral terrain of America.

*Iraq: Consider the numbers: when asked who can best end the Iraq war, only 5 percent of Americans in a recent poll said President Bush; consistent majorities of 70 percent want the war to end soon and 60 percent believe Bush misled us into this conflict. Claims of progress may momentarily quell public anger over this monumental blunder--say, General Petraeus's putting a happy face on the war. But such optimism is now as convincing as General Westmoreland's expecting "light at the end of the tunnel" in Vietnam or Baghdad Bob's denying American troops were anywhere near the Baghdad airport while those troops were seizing it.

What exactly can GOP candidates say next fall in the face of no WMD, no link between Saddam and 9/11, no ties between Saddam and al Qaeda, no flowers for "liberators," 5 million refugees both out of and within Iraq, Administration approval of torture, over 30,000 American dead and wounded as well as over 100,000 Iraqis killed ?not to mention an increase in terrorism world-wide? "Give us more time" for a war that's lasted longer than World War II?

None of this worked in 2006 and will be even less pervasive in 2008. As Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC) recently acknowledged after a Senate vote on the war, the public knows this is Bush's and the Republican's war and will reward or punish candidates accordingly.

*Economy. Most economic forecasters are predicting a one in two chance of a recession due to the foreclosure crisis leading to a credit crisis. Nor can Republican candidates convincingly cite Bush's eight-year record if '08 goes flat. Average monthly job creation and economic growth under Clinton was 237,000 and 3.6 percent; under Bush, it's 53,000 and 2.6 percent. Even if there's no recession but merely a slowdown, incumbent parties historically still lose seats and the White House if economic growth falls below 3 percent in the election year, as now seems inevitable.

At the same time, this Administration's record on spending and deficits--turning a projected $5.6 trillion surplus into $3 trillion in deficits--is dividing its own business base, according to Wall Street Journal last week. Now when asked which party would better maintain prosperity, it's Democrats by 54-34 percent according to Gallup.

And for the first time in several generations, the economic debate may include not only growth but also distribution. Static median income over the Bush years combined with winner-take-all increases in wealth by the top 1 percent have not gone unnoticed. A Pew Poll in 1988 found that by 71 to 25 percent, Americans thought themselves "haves" rather than "have nots"; by 2001, it was 48 to 48 percent. Any such data or arguments provoke Republicans to shout, "class warfare." But this is blaming the mirror for the image. Can conservatives explain how ExxonMobil's Lee Raymond earned more per hour in 2005 than his average employee earned per year?

*Intolerance. The GOP claiming to the ?party of Lincoln? is a pretense long beyond its expiration date. During the Cold War, Republicans could successfully run against Reds and Blacks. Yet with the decline of Communism and the Southern Strategy, GOP strategists have instead turned to targeting terrorists, immigrants and gays. Hence all those terror alerts and anti-gay referenda in 2004, and strident anti-immigrant rhetoric in 2007. But can the GOP rely simply on white men to win, blowing off racial and other minorities in a country increasingly minority? Bush's small gain in the black vote from 8% in 2000 to 11% in 2004, including a pivotal 16% in Ohio, helped cement his narrow victory.

The recent refusal of leading Republican presidential candidates to attend key black, Latino and gay debates prodded former vice presidential nominee Jack Kemp to complain, "We sound like we don't want immigration; we sound like we don't want black people to vote for us. What are we going to do--meet in a country club in the suburbs one day?" It won't suffice any longer for 2008 convention organizers to put every minority delegate on the stage, hoping pictures will substitute for policy.

*Children. President Bush made good on his threat to veto the expansion of the SCHIP program to extend health insurance to another 4 million children, notwithstanding the bi-partisan support of 43 governors and an 84 percent majority in a CBS-New York Times poll. He complains that such a move would federalize, even socialize, health care. So will he now end Medicare and Medicaid?

Yes, it would cost another $35 billion annually, but that would be entirely covered by a proposed increase in the tobacco tax. It's revealing that an administration which didn't veto any spending bills for six years and didn't sweat $50 billion in oil subsidies and $10 billion a month for Iraq now draws the line against providing health care to children at no-cost to the federal budget. It approaches political suicide for the Bush Administration and four top GOP presidential candidates to elevate the rhetoric of free-market fundamentalism over the reality of millions of children lacking health insurance.

Pro-war and anti-growth, anti-minorities, anti-children. Not a good way to run for election.

Beyond these four problems, a variety of other realities combine to dig Republicans into an even deeper hole. Recent polls show Democrats are more trusted on every domestic and foreign policy issue: education, health care, environment, economic growth, fiscal discipline, even terrorism. The number of Americans who self-identify as Republican is at a seven year low. While Americans believing the country is ?on the wrong tack? was 50 percent in 2002 and 2004, it's now 67 percent. National Democratic committees and presidential candidates are outraising their Republican counterparts better than 2 to 1. And then there's the fact that Republicans are defending 22 Senate seats in 2008 compared to 12 for the Democrats. Nine Republican Senate seats are now considered vulnerable (Alaska, Colorado, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Maine, Minnesota, Oregon and Virginia).

Adding it all up: look for Democrats to end up with a near filibuster-proof 58 Senate seats (up from 51) and 260 House seats (up from 213 in 2005 and 233 in 2007). The 2006 and 2008 elections would then be the equivalent of a rolling realignment, comparable to the 51, 49 and 53 House seats that switched hands in 1958, 1974 and 1994 respectively. For when there's a tidal wave of sentiment, it doesn't tip some close contests but nearly all close contests. What John Kenneth Galbraith said of Black Monday 1933 is true for the GOP today: "The end had come, but it was not yet in sight."


A condensed version of this post appears today in the New York Daily News here.

Comments

[madprophet]

I hate to break it to you folks, but even your pundits are either utterly ignorant of history, or completely arrogant and self-absorbed.

Mark Green states that the Iraq occupation has run on longer than WWII. Uh, WWII ran for about 6 years. The Iraq occupation started in late March 2003. By my count that is about 4.5 years.

Now, of course, the U.S. involvement in WWII did not start until 1941, and only because you got bombed. The fact that Europe was occupied had little interest for you.

When your writers can be so wrong on history, I guess I should expect the same from the american masses, be they from either political party.
With reference to this article, who gives a shit whether the Republicans implode or not in 2008? How about the fact that you have madmen in power now who are actually considering dropping nukes on Iran?

Do you people have any concept of the worldwide backlash there will be on the U.S if you destroy Iran? Do you even care?

Why do I even ask the question? I already know the answer. Outside of an extremely small percentage of your population, you people are willfully ignorant and have no interest in the rest of the planet, unless you want to take something from some nation.

Like Rome, your empire is doomed by its own arrogance and decadence. If you people had any true courage, you would drag Cheney and Bush into the street and install sane leaders.

[cowboyneok]

Why not preach this on some right wing, Bush-bot site? You know you are preaching to the choir. The majority of us who read "Huffpo" were like Cassandra's warning of Bush's impending disastrous policies. We weren't listened to then, and we aren't being listened to now.

[CountdownToImpeachment]

AMERICA'S INVOLVEMENT IN WWII

[TimtheDemocrat]

bashing bush isn't going to deflect hillary's real complicity in cheerleading the Iraq war and authorizing the coming Iran war

[FoundersFan]

In New York, one of the very most liberal states in America, liberal Mark Green ran for U.S. House--and lost. Mark Green ran for U.S. Senate--and lost. Mark Green ran for mayor of New York City--and lost.

He is certainly an expert on losing political campaigns.

[Mack20]

Following your twisted logic, the Democrats have to hope and pray our country goes to hell for your best chance next year. What a sad statement. You hope we lose the war. You secretly cheer for death and mayhem. You pray the economy slides into recession. The worse you can portray it the better your chances next November. Every racial issue that rears its ugly head produces a muffled cheer from you and yours. And finally, you maintain the Republicans want to starve children and leave them sick and homeless. What nonsense! Keep telling the same old lies and fooling the same gullible patsies. Thank God most levelheaded Americans wont fall for it.

[swift goat pet for truth]

1) Yours is one view. Another might be: I wish things were better, but this is what I see.

2) If one is going to judge, one should judge by the results. What are the results?

3) So, following your twisted logic, let's elect the GOP.
They did not do such a good job, but maybe they will do better the next time!

[johnmorgan]

A couple of weeks ago, I saw John Dean, of Watergate fame, who spoke at bookshop regarding his new book, "Broken Government - How Republican Rule Has Ruined the Executive, Legislative, and Judicial Branches."

Dean is a Republican, but he said to us "Republicans are good at winning elections. They don't play by the rules. They do what it takes to win. They'll play dirty. Don't write them off in 2008."

[Semper]

What I think is very interesting is that many minorities are walking away from the Democratic party. The Jews, Hispanics, Religious Right, Gays, Small Business and whos next. The Republicans have something to offer, money. The problem with voting your pocket, is its a short term benefit. Money has no conscious, real sustaining power. One day the voters are going to realize the mistakes cowardice provides. And remember we brought all this on ourselves.

[swift goat pet for truth]

Republicans offer money?
Gee, I'll take the Clinton years money over the Bush years money anyday.

[tbone99]

You're forgetting one thing .Mexicans will be the new gay marriage issue.And a lot of people who may have come to be against the war , egged on by the 'they're taking over our country crowd" will support whoever stands for militias on the border and strong prosecution of undocumented workers.They might not want that job but they sure don't a darkskinned someone who speaks another language to have it, even if they are donating money to Social Security.Even Bush couldn't convince that crowd .Liberal Massacusetts is looking at electing a Republican based upon this very issue.

[realitytrumpsbull]

Um, bullcrap, Bush has been pro-growth, and
government handouts have never been bigger.
He's handed out so much money, all the would-be
charity cases are so stuffed, there's hardly
anyone left for Billary to pander to...

[DMSmith]

WHOA! Talk about bullcrap and pandering!

You're either sadly miss-informed or an outright lier. I suspect the second guess.

Your statements are SO untrue and SO far from the truth that they don't even warrant refuting.

[Euclid]

Yeah, the govt. handouts went to Halliberton, Blackwater, Lockeed-Martin et.al. and we haven't gotten our money's worth. Get used to the idea that the people have finally caught on to the true Repug agenda.

[CountdownToImpeachment]

realitytrumpsbull????WTF????
Handouts????
Oh, you ment USURPER bu$h cutting 2 BILLION from a VA budget UNREALISTICALLY set at PRE-ILLEGAL WAR$ of AGGRE$$ION LEVELS
Or maybe his veto of SCHIP cause insurence companies would LOSE money.
Peddle your LIES somewhere where they are still DELUDED enough to believe them, you freeper.

[JaseAllen]

Duh-huh. Bush gave all those handouts to multi-millionaires and billionaires. And don't you worry. "Billary," as you called her will find someone to pander to, as will all the candidates on both sides of the isle. The difference is the Republicans know who to pander to.

[AnotherMcIntosh]

If you are a Democrat and your particular Representative voted to continue the Iraq mess, don't overlook this:
http://www.democrats.com/primary-2008-map

[AnotherMcIntosh]

In addition, here's a list of the Bush Democrats who need to be replaced in the upcoming primaries:
http://www.democrats.com/primary-2008-list

[Justnkz]

Republicrats need to be drummed out of power. I call on all people to stop buy things they don't need to send the ultimate message by "power of the purse". No movies, dining out, tv's, cars, etc. Justshout the economy down till they stop the war !!! Only buy what u need. Power to the People! The message will be sent loudly..Stop Buying !

[Bad actor]

Yes! Boycott Christmas Shopping. Issue a blank check to each member of the family and when the turkey is served all stand, tear up the checks and shout hallelujah. There is no religious significance to gift-giving anymore--it is just a choir driven by those who profit from it. If you have money to spend, do something practical like pay a bill for someone who is financially stressed

[ld]

Wait and see, just wait and see. They'll do something.

[PADDYWHACK]

The Democrats have done nothing to deserve victory.They do not want to stop the war and their leadership is so weak they're pathetic.

[leftLibertarian]

Sorry Mr Green. The Democratic party is full of spineless fools who did not impeach Bush and Cheney for their crimes.

I would have to be naive to vote for any of them save Dennis Kucinich.

A Clinton or Obama or Edwards Presidency would means that the US would continue to be in Iraq for their term in office.

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/4/11/15325/2773

That is why I'm voting for Ron Paul who has been against the Iraq War, the so-called 'Patriot Act' (sic), and the National Security State from the start based on his principles of Freedom. Thomas Jefferson and Thomas Paine would have been on his side.

[VicPerry]

Yeah, the Democrats will probably win next year. Why am I not happier about it? Because they will back into their parking spaces. Because they'll probably pull a Nixon and not get out of Iraq until just before the 2012 election. Because after four years (or maybe eight years, or maybe two years) of the usual mealy-mouthedness they are so addicted to, people will forget why they welcomed them back and turn to the first half-way charismatic Republican who offers them easy answers.

[Economike]

If the statistics qouted are correct, people are getting to be a whole lot less stupid than your making them out to be.

[VicPerry]

The point is not whether "people" are stupid but whether the democratic party holds to their very long-standing patterns of operation - and I see no evidence these patterns have changed.

[sassafra]

if the democrats don't get up off their spineless dust collecting duffs and start confronting the administration they'll temper any positive results they would normally expect to get from such a perfect storm.
i sure as heck won't be voting for any bush dog democrats.