06/12/2008 04:03 am ET Updated May 25, 2011

Does McCain Have A Shot At California?

The recent decision by the California Supreme Court decision legalizing gay marriage and other anecdotal factors have me thinking the unthinkable: McCain may have a shot at taking California. Here's why: The ruling may be the Golden State's version of Roe vs. Wade, likely to both poison politics for decades to come by launching a thousand angry battles between traditionalists and progressives and energize churchgoers who may have been convinced to be tolerant but never signed on to endorse gay marriage in their state. And this initiative which just gathered enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot may mean a huge turnout of churchgoers-both Protestants and Catholics who are more likely to vote for McCain than Obama.

But there are other anecdotal factors that make me think Obama may be in trouble. A few weeks back I was at a swank Pacific Palisades backyard party of music biz types where a very nice person was introduced to a number of us as an important California official with the Obama campaign, obviously there looking for potential donors. Shortly after being introduced, one of Tinseltown's top publicists turned to the woman and said "He's fabulous. Amazing. A rock star, I love him." Then, without missing a bit, he added, "I just don't know what the f*** he's talking about!"

She seemed stunned and the group broke up with nervous laughter, but I thought it was a telling moment and one that made me wonder how unified even Hollywood will be behind Obama in an Obama-McCain race.

The odds are certainly against a McCain victory in California, but I don't think it's impossible. As I've written previously here, the chances will increase if he picks a vice presidential candidate with California ties.