Saddleback: A Watershed Moment?

I spent a good part of Saturday at Saddleback Church, in Orange County, CA blogging live on the Obama-McCain debate, but felt too close to the action to provide analysis so I decided to wait a bit and weigh in after I had a chance to absorb all that I had seen and heard.

I was sorely tempted to skip the debate altogether when I got an email informing me that I'd be "covering" the event from a tent on the Saddleback campus where print journalists were to be exiled to. I decided I'd have more fun in the sanctuary where I could experience the crowd and the candidates first hand so I made my way into the sanctuary where I began to blog only to be ejected by a Secret Service agent who said I was to go back to the tent. After wrangling a ticket, said agent again tried to eject me, but eyeing my ticket said I could stay but not my computer. We worked out a compromise that allowed me to hang out with the TV crews and I was able to get my first scoop of the evening when I learned that the evening's moderator Rick Warren was sick, and I filed my first reports here. and here

Some observations:

Obama started strong. In fact, just showing up at this kind of an event which Democrats of yesteryear might not have gone to was a victory for him. But after a few minutes he seemed to run out of steam. I don't think the blame lies with which candidate had or didn't have questions ahead of time. I blame Obama's performance on Hawaii and the strategic mistake his campaign made by scheduling such an important event so close to the end of his vacation. Obama looked like I feel for the first few days after I get back from vacation: listless, too relaxed and wishing I was still on vacation. His mind was elsewhere.

His answers were measured, thoughtful and nuanced-the only problem was this wasn't a crowd that was looking for nuance. They were looking for what McCain offered up: straight, concise and clear answers.

There were a couple of key moments that I think will be remembered and we may very well look back on this event as a watershed moment in the race for the White House:

First, when Obama answered the 'when does a baby gain rights' question his answer that it was "above his pay grade" didn't seem flippant to me at the time, but upon reflection I can see why some in the crowd thought so. It was a tough question to be sure, but he would have been better off answering that he didn't know or offering up an obvious answer that would fit the pro-choice paradigm: that rights are accorded to a fetus at birth.

As for McCain, the money moment was his admission that his greatest moral failure was the demise of his first marriage. This was exactly what churchgoers needed to hear and this will inoculate him from attacks that are likely to come late in the campaign about the manner and timing of his parting with his first wife. Although we learned later that he knew the question was coming, for a split second he hesitated as though he was still trying to decide whether he should really go there. He did and it was exactly what the crowd wanted to hear.

His answer on when a fetus acquired rights (at conception) was clear and direct and the crowd ate it up.

Although McCain likely thinks that his story about the Vietnamese prison guard who drew a cross in the sand was a hit, I don't think it was terribly impressive. As someone once observed, that story is really a testimony about the faith of the guard and not McCain. It wasn't a dud, but it's the kind of story one tells about another when one's own story isn't quite good enough.

McCain also didn't endear himself to wives across America when he failed to name his wife as one of the people he would turn to for advice. I realize she's not an expert on Georgia or the Ukraine, but it would be nice to think that he a) considers her wise and b) would turn to her for general advice.

There has been much reporting about the cone of silence issue as well as whether or not the questions were given to each candidate ahead of time. Only McCain knows if he cheated, but it didn't seem to me as if he had heard Obama's performance and as I said, I blame the vacation planning not any advance notice for the gap in their performances. At one point Obama referenced having been forewarned about a question and a PBS reporter and I exchanged glances and commented to each other that it seemed as though there had been some advance notice.

Obama hit a homerun with his comment that he considered anybody who had sold 25 million copies to be rich. Never mind that Warren's sales are now up to 40 million, the comment was a hit even with this crowd of Warren supporters who are likely hoping that Warren's ego doesn't grow in tandem with his book sales.

As for Rick Warren, I think he acquitted himself well. I was expecting softball questions with no serious follow ups. What we got instead were smart, hardball questions with few followups and too many interruptions. It wasn't quite as bad as Charlie Rose who talks 25% of the time and interrupts regularly, but Warren's interruptions prevented us from hearing where McCain and Obama would have come down on the question of the Supreme Court's centrist, Anthony Kennedy. Would they have nominated Kennedy? We'll never know because Warren didn't let them finish their sentences.

I once heard Warren speak at a conference in Silicon Valley and remarked at the time to friends that this was "not your parents' televangelist." He's light years away from the charlatans of the '80's, sophisticated and smart and has taken steps to not repeat the mistakes other high profile preachers have made. Giving back his salary to the church for the past 30 years was smart as is driving the same car, living in the same house and giving away 90% of his income. But it was disappointing to see that church members who, presumably, already give a tenth of their income to the church, were having to pay upwards of $2,000 to buy tickets to attend an event at their own church. In fact as I was leaving the event I ran into a recent college graduate who had eagerly told me last year of his decision to be baptized at Saddleback. He said he had gotten all of his questions answered about the candidates. I didn't ask him who he had decided to vote for but I did ask him how much the ticket had cost him. $500 he replied, which is probably a week's salary for him. There's something not right about that.

I hope Saddleback will take all of the money they raised last Saturday, deduct the hard costs of the event, and then return whatever money is left over on a pro-rated basis to those who attended. It's the right thing to do and of all people, Rick Warren should have taken steps to avoid even the slightest appearance of his flock being fleeced.

Nevertheless, this event established Warren not just as America's pastor but also a referee of sorts who tried valiantly to hide his own biases and gave both candidates a fair hearing.

John McCain and Barack Obama came to Saddleback essentially tied. Although Obama wins points for showing up, McCain was the clear winner and we may look back on this night as the moment when the tide shifted and McCain began to secure his wayward churchgoing base of voters who realize that he's not quite one of them, but will likely vote him anyway.

Follow Mark Joseph on Twitter: www.twitter.com/markmjm

Comments

[edva]

The whole event was a regrettable pandering to the "religious right". Obama should have passed it up entirely, citing separation of church and state. The evangelicals are free to believe as the wish, so is Obama, but as a citizen I do not want their story-book fantasies influencing my government.

[frank438]

Obama could not pass this up, even if he wanted to. The whole Jeremiah Wright issue ( seperation of church and state? ) forced his hand on this. Obama is losing ground in the polls and he has to pander to the normal religious crowd for votes. He failed miserably, not because of vacation but because he does not perform well without cue cards. The guy is an empty suit when the speeches are not in front of him, he sure has a lot of ughhs in his comments.

[conniedogs]

ughhs was the first word your moma said after seeing your face for the first time.

[Jjc2006]

Obama only got 'points for showing up" from the nuprogressives, or nuDemocrats. Frankly, I found it disconcerting that instead of fighting to get our democracy back, the nudems and their leader Obama instead seem to be fighting to get us into nuAmerica.­....the openly religious America that thinks the Constitution comes in second to the Ten Commandments. HELLO.....­.NO RELIGIOUS TEST.
What the heck is wrong with people. The right wing wants a theocracy, and instead of fighting that, the nuleft has decided to lead the way to theocracy.

Be afraid, be very afraid.

[SEQUOIABISON]

Yes, I agree Mark he was definitely off his game and a little rusty, like getting back into an exercise routine.

But I think our man Obama did remarkably well considering the hostile forum.

McCain was playing to the Bush Choir.

Responding to questions about hot button issues with quick well-rehearsed one-liners that usually get loud applause from a crowd of Christian fundamentalists.

Obama was fishing for converts trying to win over hard-line hostile theocratic republicans.

Lets see how the old prisoner of war fares in a normal debate when Obama is back on his game and without an audience filled with radical Americans who disdain the scientific teaching of Darwin and prefer the dubious unscientific stretch of faith they call Intelligent Design.

McCain will not be able to deliver those absurd applause lines that only go over well with people who are incapable of thinking for themselves.

We have an intellectual powerhouse in Obama and his superior intelligence and masterful judgment will shine through as this campaign goes into the home stretch.

Obama/Clark

For a return to sanity in government.

[1099]

All I got from your post was more excuses to justify the poor performance of a political neophyte who has no business running for President in the first place.

Go O-bag!

[Pupadup4oBama]

oh, and pray tell us what makes YOUR candidate so exceptional.

[wmg57]

I have a real problem with the whole concept of the debate(?). The United States was founded on the basic principle of the separation of church and state. Why is the first confrontation between the two presumptive nominees taking place in a church? Who is this pastor? How do they get away with charging upwards of $2000 a ticket? Pandering to the fundamentalist christian base is no better than what is happening in the mideast. Religion must not be allowed to be a determining factor in any election other than an internal church vote on where to spend the tax exempt profits.

[Areyoume2]

One thing I am realizing is that people see things SERIOUSLY differently. I was a passionate Hillary gal who's now a passionate Obama supporter. I watched his discussion with the 'Pastor' and felt it to be sincere and intelligent. I watched McCain and felt the way I felt years ago while watching Ronald Reagan... he was performing for the cameras and living in a very 'senior' moment, "my friends". I was embarrassed when he told the POW story; it seemed to lack humility. I felt he sold out whatever heroism I'd attributed to his past by divulging things that should've remained his personal story. (I also felt that seeing the ad with his POW pics). 57,000 DIED in Viet Nam. My idea of a hero would have deflected our attention to them. If Obama can't get any mileage out of his 'blackery' then McCain shouldn't be getting any out of his 'bravery'. Also, his adamantly professing when life begins. Very stubbornly George Bush. We definitely see things differently if this country thought McCain looked to be the beacon shining in that forum. I thought he seemed scary. I close by saying: GET A GRIP America! Don't let churches dictate who we are. The Constitution that we have today is based on freedom of thought , individual conviction and integrity as well as our RIGHT to choose which religion or NONE.

[TexasDem0]

This country is founded on a very sound principle of separation of church and state.

I don't care what any candidate's religious beliefs are.

I do care that the candidate keeps his religion out of my government.

[KingFive]

I think Obama did a very good job at Saddleback. His answers were sincere and honest. McCain definitely had a "home field advantage" since the evangelicals have been voting Republican for years. As a result, it is foolish to judge Obama's performance by the amount of applause he received. Obama is Pro-Choice. The audience at Saddleback was definitely Anti-Choice. Those are the realities of the situation. I think Obama's answer to when life begins was honest (only God knows for sure when human life begins). I think most non-zealot Christians share Obama's view.

[1099]

Pro-Life - not Anti-Choice

[Pupadup4oBama]

Nope....th­e term is anti-choice, my friend.
Nothing pro-life about a warmonger.

I think Obama's answer to this was exactly right. And who are WE to dare to presume when life begins and when it should end.
Now THAT'S not presumption I can depend on.

[CyrusBeaucephus]

....Also Pro Death Penalty, Pro War, Pro Pollution, Pro Incarcerat­ion.....ke­ep 'em barefoot and pregnant like the Lord Commanded, eh Red Stater?

[MarciL]

They're only "pro-life" when it comes to fetuses. Once they're born, they don't care. Otherwise they would be supportive of contraception, sex education, welfare, education, and against the death penalty.

[DerekRC]

Mothers who do not abort their babies believe that life begins at conception. My wife is an ultrasound technician, and she never hears a mother or father refer to their baby as "fetus".

Obama lost because his arguments came off as evasive and non-committal.

[Areyoume2]

Obama's answer regarding when life begins was not evasive, but thoughtful and balanced. He rightly suggested that women typically don't make this choice lightly. MEN obviously can make an argument - but it's pretty soft and meaningless, as they aren't in the position to choose life (God has not designed their bodies to be the carriers thereof). And mothers who WANT children can make the argument - but not for somebody else!! The same is true of mothers who HAVE children and foolishly think they corner the market on compassion and maternal instincts. Do they even consider that MANY women who have children have also had abortions. There is life and there is quality of life. Many women who abort do so to retain the ability to provide for their existing familiy in an economy and culture that doesn't treat women fairly. Others want to get an education to provide for their family's future. I'm far more concerned about capital punishment. To me it's no contest and yet more often than not NO COMMENT from our pro-life friends.

[Malarcus]

Two things:

Rick Warren is not "America's Pastor." He may be yours, and you may enjoy him, but he does not speak to or for me or anyone I associate with. And we're all Americans. Save the "America's Pastor" nonsense for his book tour.

Secondly, you are the only commenter I have read or heard that described Warren's forum questions as "hardball," or anything resembling that description.

[NaiveOkie]

Very, very well-stated.

You should be Obama's running mate!

(But hopefully he'll pick Biden and finally have someone to go at McCain with gusto.)

[gcalknet]

Yes, but whose thoughts will Biden steal this time?

[auldsailor]

John McCain hardly "pandered to his base", he simply told it like it is, something Obama seems totally incapable of doing. BO's base must be all Harvrd graduates with PHD's in 'BS 101" certainly if you really listen to him he is somewhere to the left of Carl Marx and if you read his two books you will see his roadmap to making a socialized America. I can live without it thank you

[noamjunior]

just admit you dont like Black people and quit trying to justify your racism

[DerekRC]

People aren't racists because they believe Obama is completely vacuous.

[zippywpinhead]

I've really listened to O and he certainly does not come anywhere near Carl Marx, but actually is a somewhat centrist progressive- thanx for parroting the talking points. If you characterize O 's base as "Harvrd graduates" (sic) , then what does that say about M's base? It appears that many of them are comprised of anti intellectual, incurious people who wish to have their opinions spoon fed to them in small, bite sized morsels; who consider as too complex, too nuanced and too complicated any answer that does not fit on a bumper sticker or make for a good hook line in a country and western song...

[rsottong]

LOL!! You just picked up a new fan, 'my friend'.

[Pupadup4oBama]

TOUCHE ZIPPY!!!

[Pupadup4oBama]

hell yea!!

[LABC]

Well, money, ticket, passport - smell ya later...

[zizyphus]

Then you must be outraged that our government has socialized the financial industry and given them the keys to the treasury. And it is Karl, not Carl. If you had ever read anything, you would already know that. And no, he was not one of the Marx Brothers, like Groucho.

[eeVas]

One comment I have not heard on the blogs or in the media was McCain's comment about his greatest personal moral failing. He simply replied his first marriage. Most people are assuming it was the cheating. But was that what he meant?? Could he have meant the marriage itself??

I realize that analysis seems petty. But the media and the blogs have made very petty comments about Obama. His comment about "being above my pay grade." That one comment has been sliced and diced to death.

As far as who did better. To me it was a matter of perspective. Yes McCain had a good night, if what you want in a president is someone who doesn't think and makes rash decisions. Personally, I want a president who considers the shades of meaning within an issue.

[rsottong]

I totally agree with you. That particular answer sticks in my craw. I found it gloriously illuminating.

[DerekRC]

"the shades of meaning within an issue"

WTF are you talking about?

The sky is not pink.
The earth is not flat.
Barack Obama did not win, or even have a good night.

[mabinog]

The place was at least half of authoritarian types. They just love decisive types who will tell them what they want to hear to soothe their insecurities.

[Pupadup4oBama]

hell yea!

[MrWinky]

I think that Obama made a smart choice in his attendance at Saddleback. Like you said, I believe he got points just for showing up, and I think he is making inroads that other Dems have not made since the demise of the Bourbon Democrat. Having a Dem talk intelligently and honestly about his faith couldn't hurt, especially with the new wave of evangelist which is appearing on the scene. Younger, more tolerant, and less likely to be diehard Republican. These were the people Obama was addressing.

Certainly McCain made points with a crowd that was leaning his way, no doubt about it. But I think that even they realized that they were being fed canned lines that pandered to them. While Obama was more nuanced, I think it did appeal to many about him being thoughful in his religion. Having him quote scripture as opposed to McCain's basic "Jesus is da man, I'm pro-life responses" may have been the ticket.

At $2,000 a ticket, the crowd was obviously full of older, traditional evangelicals. But if Obama can even change the mind of 1 or 2%, it may have been worth it.

Also, any chance to show he is not a Muslim is a big advantage.

[zizyphus]

What is the difference between the Evangelicals and the radical muslims? They both want to subjugate women.

[Pupadup4oBama]

excellent way of looking at it - you are correct - if he could get even a handful of people to make up their minds about him...then he won.

[appetite88]

McCain's comeback is attributed to the media that runs every criticism of Obama as if it is some controversial story. Case in point: Obama goes to Europe and every news outlet runs a story like "Some people are saying Obama is being presumptuous". John McCain effectively told Russia to go to hell, and while plenty of people said it was over the line, the media outlets didn't run story after story saying "Did John McCain go too far?" or "Some people are saying John McCain was acting presumptuous".

The media owns this election and we all know it. Let's just sit back and see who they pick as the winner.

[milo9]

Too true!

[1099]

So don't vote then.

[appetite88]

Will it matter if I do? Will it even be counted accurately?

[dukeman]

The Saddleback encounter will change very few peoples minds as to who to vote for.

The crowd was evangelical so stacked to McCain's favor and his answers were pandering and got the most applause.

Obama did OK with what was a potentially hostile crowd and maybe got a few evangelicals to his corner. That is the best he could have hoped for.

[greginwva]

I reject the premise that Obama had a poor performanc­e.Quite the opposite,in my oppinion.H­e wasnt speaking to those rich folk in the audiance,he was speaking to thinking Americans across the country.

[zippywpinhead]

"he was speaking to thinking Americans across the country."

I just wish there were more of us...

[ConcernedAmerican]

Who cares if Obama didn't pander to that crowd? His answers were thoughtful and nuanced but in no way intended to win over a crowd that is no where near his base. WcCain's answers were obviously pandering to his base.

Had Obama won over that crowd with pandering I would have been more concerned.­...